Slate Breaker: National Football League (Week 1)

Game Picks

Vikings @ Giants

While the addition of Malik Nabers will do a lot for this Giants offense, Daniel Jones and defensive ineptitude will hold this team back. Even an offense led by Sam Darnold will be able to move the ball at will against this team. The Vikings will cruise in this one.

Steelers @ Falcons

The battle of mediocre QBs in new places may be a bit of a hard watch especially on the Steelers side as the Falcons just have too much complementary talent on their offense for Kirk to fail in this one. The Falcons will easily win as Russ will struggle to establish any rhythm in the passing game.

Panthers @ Saints

The Panthers have made a lot of improvements this offseason and most importantly along the offensive line, but I still have my doubts about Bryce Young as a franchise QB. Young only really thrived when he was part of a stacked Alabama offense with guys like Jameson Williams, but as soon those stars left Young had plenty of struggles and inefficiency. With no true elite offensive talent around Young, this Panthers offense will struggle to compete with most teams and their defense just is not talented enough to make up for those deficiencies. Saints win big.

Patriots @ Bengals

Does this one require any real analysis? With or without JaMarr Chase, the Bengals pummel this Patriot team as the Pats O line is one of the worst in recent memory. Even if the Patriots played offense for the entire game, I still think the Bengals win this game.

Texans @ Colts

There is a lot of hype surrounding this Texans team, but I think it is entirely unwarranted to be honest. What good teams did this team beat? Just the Bengals. This team lost to both the Jets and the Panthers.....ya that's right the Panthers. Sure they made some "splashy" adds, but they were mostly just veterans heading into the twilight of their careers while losing some key contributors on defense. The Colts on the other hand seem like a team on the brink as Anthony Richardson is back healthy on an offense brimming with talent. The Colts do not just win this game, but they win big. The AFC South runs through Indianapolis.

Titans @ Bears

Man I cannot wait to see Caleb Williams play with a functional defense again. I am a huge Williams fan and watching the final year of his legendary college career be marred by defensive ineptitude was nothing short of a tragedy so with Williams no longer feeling like he has to play hero ball, he will be able to settle in and play his game which will limit his sacks and turnovers. I am already sold that Williams will be an elite NFL QB and the beginning of a prolific career begins Sunday with a huge win over the Titans.

Jaguars @ Dolphins

This game should be closer than many think with the Jaguars offense being one of the more underrated units in the league. Ultimately, they just do not have enough firepower to keep pace with the NFL's best offense and the Dolphins pull out a win.

Cardinals @ Bills

The Cardinals have made enough improvements and the Bills have lost enough players to make this a very close game. This will be a great game for fantasy players as I expect both of these offenses to be able to move the ball with ease and the ultimate winner will be whoever has the ball last, but for the time being I am leaning towards the home field advantage and picking the Bills by the slightest of margins.

Raiders @ Chargers

Jim Harbaugh has won 69% of his games at the NFL level and 72% of his games at the college level. There is just no way a team coached by this man loses to one of the least talented teams in the league. Chargers win easy.

Broncos @ Seahawks

Do I buy the Bo Nix hype? Honestly, I kinda do. I do not think he will come out of the gates gun blazing and throw for 300 yards and 3 TDs, but I do think he will take care of the ball allow the Broncos running game led by a rejuvenated Javonte Williams to pull out a tight road win over a Seahawks team that will still be getting used to life without Pete Carroll.

Cowboys @ Browns

Deshaun Watson needs to prove his worth before I have any faith in this Browns team. He will not be able to handle a defense of the Cowboys talents so even if Dak Prescott struggles against this tough Browns defense, he will be able to produce more than Watson in this one. Cowboys will lead early and never look back.

Commanders @ Buccaneers

I am looking forward to seeing how Jayden Daniels fairs at the NFL level. In college, he was quite possibly the best rushing QB of all time while also displaying NFL level passing abilities so we could have a superstar on our hands, but he does have one major problem, he does not protect himself. I cannot count the number of times I have seen him try to take on a hit when multiple defenders are converging on him. If this continues, he will not last long at the NFL level. There will be some growing pains for Daniels and it should start in Week 1 since the Buccaneers allowed the 5th fewest rushing yards to QBs last year and forced 26 turnovers. The future is bright for Washington, but they will open the season with a heart wrenching loss to the Buccaneers as Daniels's inexperience causes them to falter down the stretch.

Rams @ Lions

Another gem for fantasy players, this game has explosive upside on both sides. I love both of these offenses with elite talent riddled throughout this game. The Lions defense will be the X factor on paper. Will Aidan Hutchinson continue his growth into one of the league's top defenders? Will Terrion Arnold be able to step in and fix the Lions biggest hole from last year? I think this Lions defense will be able to take that next step forward and transform this team into a true contender and the team to beat in the NFC. Lions open the season with a close, hard fought victory.

Player Spotlights

Quarterbacks

Play of the Day: Anthony Richardson, Colts (vs Texans)

Anthony Richardson will burst back onto the scene in a big way this week. First, let's not forget how good of a fantasy QB he was in his very limited action last year. Richardson played just 2 full games last year and he finished as the QB4 in Week 1 and the QB2 in Week 4. Do I need to give more analysis than that??? Well I will anyway. What team allowed the most rushing TDs to opposing QBs last year? The Houston Texans. What team allowed the most 2 point conversions to opposing QBs last year? The Houston Texans. The Texans were great at limiting opposing RBs allowing the 6th fewest rushing yards to the position so the Colts will not be able to run the offense through Jonathan Taylor in this one and this will be a competitive game so there is just too much opportunity for Richardson to not produce. He has a very strong floor and possibly the highest ceiling of any QB. You need Richardson in your lineups.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals (@ Bills)

On paper, this looks like a nightmare matchup. The Bills allowed just 13.9 fantasy points per game to QBs last year, but that is a deceiving number. The Bills play the Patriots and Jets twice a year and also got to face Tyrod Taylor, Jimmy Garrapolo and Easton Stick so that 13.9 figure is not a true representation of this matchup. Murray is a good play regardless of matchup, but this looks like a plus matchup for Kyler.

Caleb Williams, Bears (vs Titans)

I am jumping right into the deep end with this one. The Titans are not the best matchup ranking in the middle of the pack in yardage and TDs allowed to QBs in 2023, but I am just too high on Williams to not jump in on him right away. He is a dynamic playmaker that has shown flashes that look very reminiscent of a young Patrick Mahomes. It is his redzone expertise that really intrigues since he is so great at dancing around and exploiting the slightest opening to make a quick dash for 5 yards which will lead to a lot of rushing TDs over his NFL career. This is no lock for sure, but it is definitely worth the gamble.

Jayden Daniels, Commanders (@ Buccaneers)

While I do not think Daniels will be able to come out with a  win in his NFL debut, I do think he will ball out. The Buccaneers are a great run defense but struggle against the pass. The Bucs allowed the 2nd most passing yards in the NFL last year and are also susceptible to QBs running in the redzone allowing the 2nd most rushing TDs to the position. This will be a high scoring affair so I like Daniels chances of stepping into the most pass heavy offense from a year ago and throwing for more than 250 yards and multiple scores while contributing a bump with his rushing legs. There are not many QBs I would take over Daniels this week.

Justin Fields, Steelers (@ Falcons)

Fields is not guaranteed to start, but with Russell Wilson dealing with an injury, Fields could be thrust into action. If Fields starts, it is a bad thing for the Steelers, but a good thing for us fantasy players. Fields's rushing ability is simply unmatched when it comes to QBs. The rushing alone makes Fields a compelling option especially in daily fantasy where he can be had for basically nothing.

Solid Starts: Josh Allen, Bills (vs Cardinals); Matthew Stafford, Rams (@ Lions); & Justin Herbert, Chargers (vs Raiders)

Running Backs

Play of the Day: Raheem Mostert, Dolphins (vs Jaguars)

This is more a nod to daily fantasy players than season long as Mostert is just too cheap for his current role. DeVon Achane is deserving of the hype he is getting, but Mostert is still the lead back and goal line back. Mostert played 8 games where Achane was fully integrated into the offense and finished above an RB10 in 5 of those games including an RB1 and 2 RB2 performances. The Dolphins are going to score a lot of points so there will be plenty of fantasy production for Mostert to siphon off.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions (vs Rams)

Gibbs needs to be over $9K and until he reaches that price, he is a great value. The Lions brought Gibbs along slowly to begin his rookie year and then he suffered a hamstring injury, but once he was fully released, he was unstoppable. Over his last 11 games, Gibbs averaged 92 total yards per game and a score per outing. Simply put, that is elite production. There will be offensive fireworks in this one and Gibbs will be a big beneficiary of that action.

Kyren Williams, Rams (@ Lions)

I do not care about the punt return hysteria, I am rolling with Williams until McVay proves he will not be deploying Kyren in the most valuable role in all of fantasy football. He averaged 22 touches per game in a very good offense which will lead to solid fantasy production regardless of opponent. Do not get tricked by McVay again and roll with Williams for the foreseeable future.

Zamir White, Raiders (@ Chargers)

Antonio Pierce made it clear he wants the Raiders to do two things. Play good defense and run the ball over and over. With an offense led by Gardner Minshew, you can see why Pierce will continue to operate with this philosophy. White does not face much competition for touches in this backfield so expect him to be given as much work as he can handle. 

Chase Brown, Bengals (vs Patriots)

The Patriots are not going to win many games, but they will play good run defense. Luckily, Brown's greatest skillset is his ability to catch the ball. Zack Moss will likely see the most work, but Brown does not need a lot of work because he has elite burst so if he is able to get to the edge, he is going to score a lot of points. Think of Brown as an Achane-lite.

Wide Receivers

Play of the Day: Terry McLaurin, Commanders (@ Buccaneers)

With Jahan Dotson in Philadelphia, I do not expect any Commander to come close to the amount of targets that Terry will see. Sure Luke McCaffrey will take on a bigger role at some point, I do not expect him to do much in his first NFL game. That just leaves McLaurin to take advantage of this glorious matchup as the Buccaneers secondary looked overmatched in most games last year and now Carlton Davis is in Detroit. I just do not see how McLaurin does not flirt with 10 catches this week.

Justin Jefferson, Vikings (@ Giants)

Even with the loss of JJ McCarthy, Jefferson is getting a big upgrade at QB after playing the final stretch of 2023 with Nick Mullens. Even with lackluster QB play, Jefferson finished as a top 6 WR in half of his games with Mullens. The talent wins out here so you can expect Jefferson to end the day with a huge stat line. 

Cooper Kupp, Rams (@ Lions)

I am not scared of Puka Nacua. Even with Puka Nacua in the fold last year, Kupp was still very productive as he averaged 16.7 PPR once fully integrated back into the offense. The Lions still need to prove they have fixed their secondary and Kupp would be able to exploit even the slightest hole if they were caught lacking. Kupp is a safe play with elite upside at a very affordable price.

Marvin Harrison & Malik Nabers, Cardinals & Giants

I am rolling with the rookies right away. Elite talent and elite opportunity rarely overlap, but they have here and you can have it all for a ridiculously cheap price. I do not expect much of a learning curve for these guys since they both ran a complete route tree in college and operated in a sophisticated offense. Nabers has a far better matchup than Harrison, but neither are a particular concern. Be bold. Roll the dice on these guys.

Christian Kirk, Jaguars (@ Dolphins)

Ultimately, Brian Thomas Jr. will be the guy in Jacksonville, but until he takes over Kirk will be Lawrence's go to guy. The Jaguars will be forced to play catch up in this one so Kirk will be peppered with targets. In games where Kirk received at least 6 targets, he scored double digit HPPR points in every game but one. If you want a safe play at an affordable price, look no further than Kirk.

Tight Ends

Play of the Day: Dalton Kincaid, Bills (vs Cardinals)

There was a stretch of 6 weeks from Week 7 to 12 where Kincaid had finally taken over the starting role and had not been slowed down by nagging injuries and in that stretch, Kincaid was a fantasy monster. He finished as a top 10 TE in half of those weeks and with Diggs and Davis gone, how do we not expect more production. Kincaid will find his name in this section a lot as this season rolls along.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons (vs Steelers)

We are in a post-hype Kyle Pitts era, but Kirk Cousins is going to change that. The Falcons will no longer be running the ball all the time and Pitts will have his first functional QB since Ryan when he racked up over 1,000 yards his rookie season. Get ready for the Pitts hype to ratchet up after Kirk shows everyone he can still play football.

Greg Dulcich, Broncos (@ Seahawks)

Dulcich is a serious value. Dulcich was once hyped as a potential breakout Tight End but he had the last season and half marred by injury. He is healthy again but he is now overlooked after not offering much production over the past two seasons. He will become a big part of this offense as a safety blanket for Bo Nix since Nix has shown he is afraid to throw down the field. Dulcich is a good value based on his projected target share alone.

Defenses

Play of the Day: Bengals (vs Patriots)

This Patriots O line is a historically bad unit so a common trope will quickly be established week after week; target the Patriots offense. The Bengals may have lost some pieces on this defense, but they will still be able to rush the passer with ease.

Solid Starts: Vikings (@ Giants); Saints (vs Panthers); Bears (vs Titans) & Falcons (vs Steelers)

FanDuel DFS Dream Team

QB: Jayden Daniels, Commanders (@ Buccaneers)

RB1: Raheem Mostert, Dolphins (vs Jaguars)

RB2: Javonte Williams, Broncos (@ Seahawks)

WR1: Terry McLaurin, Commanders (@ Buccaneers)

WR2: Andrei Iosivas, Bengals (vs Patriots)

WR3: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys (@ Browns)

TE: Dalton Kincaid, Bills (vs Cardinals)

Flex: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions (vs Rams)

D/ST: Bengals (vs Patriots)

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