Slate Breaker: College Football Week 1 (Saturday)

Game Picks

Virginia Tech @ Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt has made tremendous strides as a program over the past couple seasons and is no longer a doormat for every other Power 4 school, but they have not done enough to be able to limit a Hokie offense that remains mostly intact. Virginia Tech returns QB Kyron Drones and his two leading WRs Da'Quan Felton and Jaylin Lane, but the biggest boon to this offense is the healthy Ali Jennings. Jennings is a true difference maker on the offensive side of the ball shown by his prolific production during the 2021 and 2022 seasons where he combined for 2,025 yards and 14 TDs. There is just too much offensive firepower on the Hokie side of the ball for a shallow Vanderbilt roster to keep pace.

Penn State @ West Virginia

With a matchup between a powerful offense and a dominant defense, this game is going to be extremely fun to watch. West Virginia returns an offense led by QB Garrett Greene so expect the Mountaineers to be able fully roll out their offense Week 1, but they will have their work cut out for them. Penn State finished the 2023 season as the top defense in the nation allowing just 233 yards to opponents while allowing less than 12 points to opponents. This one could be close, but the Penn State defense will hold tight and take home a narrow victory.

Clemson @ Georgia

Clemson just is not the program they used to be; but even if they were still in their heyday, they still would not be able to hang with this Georgia team. We are witnessing history with this Bulldog team as they are just too good to lose. There was only one man who could take down Georgia and that is Nick Saban. The only games that Georgia has lost since November 7th, 2020 are to Nick Saban's Alabama. With Nick Saban gone, expect the Bulldogs to stop on every opponent in their way and it begins Week 1 in Atlanta.

Connecticut @ Maryland

Maryland has to win this game right? UConn just is not a football school as they have endured losing seasons for almost a decade and a half straight. While the QB play of Maryland does scare me a bit since they do not have a proven passer, they should be able to ride a rushing attack led by Roman Hemby and Billy Edwards to victory against this shoddy Connecticut defense. 

Miami @ Florida

Since the turn of the century, Miami has dominated this series going 5-2 and they should add to that win total this week. The Miami offense has been loaded with offensive firepower for the past couple seasons but they have lacked the spark necessary to make this team an offensive juggernaut, but that changes this year as they brought in a firecracker in QB Cam Ward who will provide a lot more than just a spark. Miami does not have enough talent on the offensive side of the ball to be able to hang around with the Canes in Week 1.

UNLV @ Houston

While Ricky White is still in Las Vegas, the loss of Jayden Maiava has set this program back years. They brought in a QB from Holy Cross to try to stop the bleeding, but there is no way he will be able to play up to Maiava's level. Even though the Cougars were pretty bad in 2023, they should cruise in this one since they are returning some key starters.

Notre Dame @ Texas A&M

We are going to get a preview of NFL football when we tune into College Station on Saturday. Both these teams will try to win this game with ball control and strong defense which may lead to a slower game than college fans are used to, but it should remain ultra competitive from the first whistle to the last. The storylines go deep in this one as a former coach QB duo now face each other as they debut for their new schools. Mike Elko should know all of Riley Leonard's biggest weaknesses so Notre Dame will have to win this one with their rushing attack. Whoever has the ball last will likely win this game and it feels like the Fighting Irish will pull this one out late since they have a more established system that will make less mistakes when it matters most.

UCLA @ Hawaii

While I am bullish on Hawaii this year, I do not think they have done enough to be able to hang with a team like the Bruins just yet. UCLA plays a tight game and does not make many mistakes so as long as Hawaii does not jump out to a quick lead, UCLA will be able to control this game. Hawaii can score points though, so this could be a much more interesting game than most people expect.

Player Spotlights

Top Fantasy and DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) Plays

Quarterbacks

Play of the Day: Jalen Milroe, Alabama (vs Western Kentucky)

Milroe just might be this year's Jayden Daniels. He was extremely productive over his first full year as Alabama's starter averaging 26.7 fantasy points and he should get an even bigger boost in production. The Nick Saban era is officially over which is a sad time for Bama fans, but it will lead to more offensive production as they move further away from the pro scheme and become a true spread offense. New HC Kalen DeBoer completely transformed Michael Penix, turning him into one of the most prodigious QBs during the 2023 season. If DeBoer can work his magic on Milroe while Milroe continues to produce with his legs, he is in line for a monster year.

Dillon Gabriel, Oregon (vs Idaho)

It seems like Gabriel has been an elite fantasy QB for nearly a decade now; but even with all that production, he still finds himself in the best situation of his entire career. Surrounded by elite offensive talent, Gabriel is going to put up video game stat lines in just about every game. This week may be his worst game of the season since his opponent is just too weak to keep him in the game. Even though Gabriel will likely only play a half in the opener, he will still pass for well over 200 yards and score at least 3 TDs.

Kyron Drones, Virginia Tech (@ Vanderbilt) & Donovan Smith, Houston (vs UNLV)

I have combined both of these guys because they feel like nearly identical plays. Both are not great but good enough passers, although I do not care much about their passing abilities as it is their legs that make them standout fantasy players. They both get easy matchups against weak defenses that struggle to key opposing QBs so either could explode for 40 point games. I lean Drones over Smith because he has more talent at receiver and he is more likely to find himself in a shootout, but I do not think either of these guys will hurt you if you throw them into your lineups.

Cam Ward, Miami (@ Florida)

Ward was an absolute stud with Washington State and now he moves to a Miami team that is loaded with pass catching talent. I do not simply expect Ward to carry over his production from Wazzu, he is going to take a huge step forward. After averaging nearly 25 fantasy points per game last season, any step forward would make Ward an elite fantasy option so get in on him before everyone else does.

Running Backs

Play of the Day: Jaydon Blue, Texas (vs Colorado State)

The Texas lead back has become the most productive position in all of fantasy football dating back over 40 games. The Texas lead back has scored double digit fantasy points in 40 of their last 41 games. Blue will be no different as he gets an easy matchup and the Texas RB depth is very shallow following CJ Baxter's injury. Blue will easily blow past the 15 fantasy point mark nearly every time he takes the field so throw him in your lineup this week and every week after. 

Donovan Edwards, Michigan (vs Fresno State)

Like the Texas RB position, being the lead back for Michigan basically guarantees fantasy production. Over their last 35 games, the Michigan lead back has scored at least 12.5 fantasy points in 34 of those games. Even with a new coach at the helm, I do not expect this to change. Michigan does not have a QB they fully trust to operate their passing offense, so their running game will be given as much work as they can handle and Edwards' time as the lead back has finally come now that Blake Corum is on the Rams. With Michigan being multi score home favorites, expect the Wolverines to keep their gameplan very vanilla and run the hell out of the ball.

Roman Hemby, Maryland (vs Connecticut)

With uncertainty at the QB position, Hemby is going to be the focal point of the Terrapin offense to open the season. He is a decent runner but he really completes his fantasy profile with his work as a pass catcher as he averaged nearly 3 catches per game on top of his already solid rushing production. If you look at college football over the past decade, Connecticut has been one of the worst teams against the run, but they did make a major stride forward last year although they still allowed nearly 150 yards per game. Hemby is a safe play with elite upside.

Jadarian Price, Notre Dame (@ Texas A&M)

I have to be honest, I am not in love with Price as a player; but I am in love with his price as he is nearly free. It is not even clear that Price is the lead back but it looks like his main competition for snaps, Jeremiyah Love, has gone the way of Chris Tyree and will be operating mostly as a WR so being able to get a Notre Dame RB who has bell cow upside at this price gives him the potential to be the top play on this slate. Notre Dame is just behind Iowa and Michigan is run usage so if Price is truly the lead back, he has a strong floor with HUGE upside.

Wide Receivers

Play of the Day: Mitch Evans, Notre Dame (@ Texas A&M)

No team utilizes their Tight End more than Notre Dame. In each of the past 5 seasons, a tight end has finished as either their top or number 2 receiver and I do not expect that to change as long as Evans is on the roster. He had his 2023 cut short by injury, but was a steady contributor before going down with injury. Across 7 games in 2023, Evans topped the 60 yards mark in 5 games. Evans should see even more production with an upgrade at QB since Riley Leonard looks far more poised in the pocket than Hartman. Evans is basically a free square this week at his absurdly low price.

Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (vs Akron)

I am taking the plunge on the true freshman. There has been seemingly endless hype surrounding this guy since the Buckeyes have entered camp and now he has been named the starter despite zero college experience so there must be some truth to the hype. He looks to be a special athlete and could ultimately challenge Emeka Egbuka for the right to be the WR1 for OSU. The beginning of prolific college career launches on Saturday so make sure you have some exposure to this guy.

Oregon WRs (vs Idaho)

I do not know exactly what to say here. This is both an endorsement and a fade. Oregon is just too rich. They have literally endless options in the wide receiver room and with Dillon Gabriel at QB, one if not multiple of these WRs will have huge days and be difference makers. Good luck figuring out who. Tez Johnson is the obvious option to be the top receiver since he is the leading returning receiver. I would argue that Evan Stewart is even more talented and he could make the jump to WR1 especially since his abilities as a deep threat match up perfectly with Dillon Gabriel's play style. Gary Bryant knows how to capitalize on open space making him a serious weapon in the redzone. And there are even more options available because this team really is that deep. All in all, I could talk myself into basically any Oregon wideout so you know the Ducks pass catchers will hold a significant stake in my entries.

Xavier Restrepo & Jacolby George, Miami (@ Florida)

Both Restrepo and George were very productive in 2023 with Tyler Van Dyke at QB and now they get a truly elite option throwing the ball with Cam Ward at QB. Ward threw for 1,000 more yards and 6 more TDs than Van Dyke and that was without this super talented WR room. Expect everyone involved in this lineup to take a major step forward this year as they join the elite college football offenses.

Joseph Manjack IV, Houston (vs UNLV)

Houston was a fairly productive passing offense in 2023, but no WR separated themselves as an elite fantasy wideout because they had 3 top fantasy wideouts that demanded attention, leading their stats to cannibalize each other a bit. Manjack was the 2nd leading receiver of these trio; but the other two WRs, Samuel Brown and Matthew Golden, have sought greener pastures leaving Manjack as the de facto WR1. Manjack was already the top redzone threat after leading the Cougars in TDs last year; so if he can ramp up his yardage totals, he will be a fantasy monster.

Pick Six

Top ATS (Anytime Scorer) Plays

Alabama QB Jalen Milroe (vs Western Kentucky)

Houston QB Donovan Smith (vs UNLV)

Texas RB Jaydon Blue (vs Colorado State)

Michigan RB Donovan Edwards (vs Fresno State)

Maryland RB Roman Hemby (vs Connecticut)

Notre Dame RB Jadarian Price (@ Texas A&M)

FanDuel DFS Dream Team

QB: Cam Ward, Miami (@ Florida)

RB1: Jaydon Blue, Texas (vs Colorado State)

RB2: Donovan Edwards, Michigan (vs Fresno State)

WR1: Jacolby George, Miami (@ Florida)

WR2: Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (vs Akron)

WR3: Mitchell Evans, Notre Dame (@ Texas A&M)

Flex: Jalen Milroe, Alabama (vs Western Kentucky)

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