Slate Breaker: FD MLB DFS (4/8)

Top Pitchers

Play of the Day: Jose Berrios, Blue Jays (vs Mariners)

Like 2023, the Mariners offense has gotten off to an abysmal start. They are scoring the 5th fewest runs per game and have been racking up a bunch of strikeouts, whiffing at the 2nd highest rate in the MLB. Berrios strikeout pitch has diminished a bit over the past few seasons with his K9 hovering around the 8.0 line over his past 2 seasons with the Blue Jays, but expect a vintage Berrios game against the free swinging Mariners.

Charlie Morton, Braves (vs Mets)

The Mets offense is yet to establish any kind of a rhythm. They are scoring less than 3 runs per game and are hitting under .200 as a team. Morton has been great at Truist Park during his time as a Brave with a 3.31 ERA at home over the past 3 seasons. The combination of the easy matchup and home cooking makes Morton a very safe play with enticing upside.

Blake Snell, Giants (vs Nationals)

Who knows how long of a leash Snell will be given in his Giant debut since his arm is likely not fully stretched out yet, but how could you not be excited by the reigning Cy Young's debut. He gets a very easy debut with a matchup against the Nationals on hand especially if their best hitter CJ Abrams remains out of the lineup. Snell has dominated this lineup over the past 2 seasons with a 1.69 ERA and a 12.9 K9 over 3 starts. I would not expect an absolute gem from Snell since he is likely a bit rusty from the long layoff, but he will still make this Nationals lineup look silly.

Framber Valdez, Astros (@ Rangers)

Starting a lineup against the potent Rangers lineup is always a risky proposition, but Valdez has a long history of success against them. Dating back to 2020, Valdez has made 12 starts against the Rangers and has delivered high end production almost every time out with 11 Quality Starts and a 2.31 ERA. His one poor start did come against the revamped 2023 Rangers allowing 6 runs over just 3.2 IP so he is not completely impeccable, but the baseline is very strong for Valdez so expect some success at the very least on Monday.


Top Stacks

Braves (vs Mets)

The Braves get to face a familiar face on Monday. They take on the one time Braves ace Julio Teheran, but those days are long behind him and he is nothing more than a baseball vagabond at this point failing to stick anywhere at the major league level over the past 5 years. The Mets are desperate so Teheran is getting the start and there is no way he fares well in this outing. The Braves are the best offense of the past decade with HR potential up and down the lineup and Teheran had a 1.63 HR9 last year so expect multiple long balls. (P.S. I would be a bit hesitant to roll with Ronald Acuna at the moment, he seems like his timing is off right now but he will turn it around at some point sooner or later and Monday could be the day.)

Diamondbacks (@ Rockies)

Do not believe the DBacks 4-6 record, it is very misleading. The team has gotten very unlucky to open the season losing 3 games by one run to open the season. They definitely need to make some additions to the back end of the bullpen but that does not matter here. The Diamondbacks offense has been anything but disappointing, scoring more than 6 runs per game to open the season. Now, they get a trip to Coors and have a matchup against Kyle Freeland and his 27.00 ERA (He is yet to pitch at Coors too so it is only getting worse). Ketel Marte is a man on fire right now so if you are only to start one DBack make it him, but all the righties are looking very juicy on Monday.

Rays (@ Angels)

I will not be fooled by Tyler Anderson's first outing. He pitched 7 shutout innings but it seemed to be a result of the Marlins offensive ineptitude more than Anderson's dominance. This is a pitcher who had a 5.43 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in 2023 after all. The Rays love facing LHPs too with most of their best hitters being righties. They ranked 5th as a team in 2023 with a .270 average vs LHPs and look to be on the same track currently ranking 8th hitting .278. Isaac Parades is the hottest Rays hitter of the bunch but a case could be made for anyone who is in the lineup.


One Offs

Bryce Harper, Phillies (@ Cardinals)

Harper is on a real heater over the past week going 8 for 22 with 5 XBHs so he is worth consideration regardless of who is on the mound. Harper does get an extra bump from his matchup though. He takes on Miles Mikolas who has gotten teed up to begin the season. He has allowed opposing hitters to go 14 for 43 while allowing 6 XBHs. Harper already has a history of success against Mikolas with Harper hitting .313 with a homer across 16 at bats against Mikolas.

Jake Meyers, Astros (@ Rangers)

Jake Meyers has been zeroed in on the ball to begin the season. When he makes contact with the ball, it has been jumping off the bat with an average exit velocity of 92.4 MPH and a 50% hard hit rate. He is not guaranteed to find success on Monday since Andrew Heaney does have the ability to miss a lot of at bats. But when Heaney misses he often misses badly leading to a lot of deep drives resulting in a 1.6 career HR9. If Meyers can catch up to a Heaney fastball expect it to go a long way with how he has been hitting lately.

Michael Conforto, Giants (vs Nationals)

Michael Conforto has been the engine for the Giants offense to open the season. Conforto has always hit the ball hard but something has changed in Conforto's approach that has led him to lift a lot more balls over the first week plus of the season. He has a career flyball % of 27.0 but that figure has shot up this year sitting at the 44.0 mark. The increase in launch angle has led to a lot more slugging with over half of his hits resulting in extra bases. Trevor Williams is a very beatable pitcher and Conforto has already shown that going 5 for 13 with a homer off the righty.


Dream Team

SP: Framber Valdez, Astros (@ Rangers)

C/1B: Matt Olson, Braves (vs Mets)

2B: Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (@ Rockies)

3B: Curtis Mead, Rays (@ Angels)

SS: Jose Caballero, Rays (@ Angels)

OF: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Diamondbacks (@ Rockies)

OF: Michael Harris II, Braves (vs Mets)

OF: Jake Meyers, Astros (@ Rangers)

UTL: Travis d'Arnaud, Braves (vs Mets)


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