Slate Breaker: FD MLB DFS (4/7)

Top Pitchers

Play of the Day: Logan Webb, Giants (vs Padres)

Webb has been disappointing to start the season allowing 7 ERs over just 9.2 IP. This is not the Logan Webb I would expect to see much longer and he gets the perfect antidote to his woes on Sunday. Webb will be pitching back at home on Sunday and the vast outfields of Oracle Park make Webb into a completely different pitcher. In 2023, Webb was not that good of a pitcher away from home with a 4.31 ERA while averaging a respectable 6 innings per start, but he was an absolute monster at home with a 2.26 ERA and an average of 7 innings per start. Webb is a very safe play on Sunday with elite upside.

Andrew Abbott, Reds (vs Mets)

Abbott is a huge boom or bust play on Sunday. He is playing the Mets who have failed to establish any kind of real offense, scoring the 3rd fewest runs in the MLB so far this season. Abbott was also a much better pitcher at home last year with a 3.51 ERA while pitching at Great American Ball Park compared to 4.29 ERA while pitching elsewhere, but there is one underlying stat that leads me to have some questions surrounding his fantasy viability on Sunday. While pitching at home last year, Abbott got hit hard leading to a 1.68 HR9 compared to a 0.89 figure while on the road. The Mets are a home run team hitting the 10th most HRs in the MLB a year ago. If you want to live on the edge, Abbott will make or break your lineups.

Jack Flaherty, Tigers (vs Athletics)

Here is another risky play for you but I strangely feel really confident in him. After struggling through the past two seasons, Flaherty may have found new life in Detroit. He looked absolutely incredible throwing 57 of his 87 pitches for strikes and most encouragingly, he generated 25 swings and misses. Now, this is a very small sample size and he was playing the White Sox so there is absolutely no guarantee of success here on Sunday, but he is facing the Athletics so the risks are a bit mitigated. 

Garrett Crochet, White Sox (@ Royals)

I must admit, I was completely wrong about Crochet. I thought his move to the rotation was a result of necessity resulting from a lack of starting pitching depth within the White Sox organization, but turns out it was a role he was destined to blossom into. It has not taken long for Crochet to make his mark. After taking a rough Opening Day loss where he allowed a single run to the Tigers, Crochet put together a masterclass in his second start weaving his way through a potent Braves lineup while allowing a single run over 7 innings of dominant work that saw him strikeout 8 Braves. Bobby Witt Jr. does concern me a bit here since he is hitting the ball a thousand miles per hour right now but Crochet should be able to handle the rest of this offense with ease. He is missing a lot of bats with a 11.1 K9 while limited solid contact with an average exit velocity of 86.2 MPH against him giving him the foundations for a very strong fantasy day.

Top Stacks

Braves (vs Diamondbacks)

The Braves have all the momentum in the world right now after pulling off two late inning comebacks on back to back nights so look for them to use that momentum as a spark to set off the powder keg that is Ryne Nelson. Nelson looked bad in his season debut failing to find the strike zone on a consistent basis and allowing 4 free passes over just 2.2 IP. The Braves will make you pay if you allow them to freely get on base. Lock the Braves in for 7+ runs on Sunday.

Cubs (vs Dodgers)

While Gavin Stone was a highly acclaimed pitching prospect, he is yet to show any of that potential in the majors. He has a career 8.50 ERA and most importantly, he allows a bunch of walks with a 3.77 BB9 in 2023. The Cubs are a very patient and disciplined team ranking 2nd in the MLB in walk rate so Stone may be facing a battle against himself if he is unable to consistently find the strike zone. He will still face some major obstacles if he does put the ball over the plate because the Cubs have also been making some solid contact with a team average velocity of 90.7 MPH and a hard hit % of 43.3. I expect the top half of this Cubs lineup: Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Moral and Dansby Swanson; to give Stone a lot of trouble on Sunday.

Giants (vs Padres)

We have another Matt Waldron sighting so expect a strong offensive outing from his opponent. Waldron's pitchers are far too flat to find continual success at the major league level so basically every team is a good matchup against him, but this Giants matchup really intrigues me. While the Giants are in the middle of the pack when it comes to run production currently ranking 14th in the MLB, they have been getting a bit unlucky because they have been absolutely tattooing the ball. As a team, they rank 1st in the MLB in average exit velocity with a 91.4 MPH figure and are 2nd in hard hit % with 46.5. This entire Giants lineup should be able to tee up Waldron so expect a crooked number from the Giants on Sunday.

One Offs

Mookie Betts, Dodgers (@ Cubs)

Shota Imanaga looked great in his MLB debut, but his play style does leave him vulnerable to the long ball. Imanaga is a big time fly ball pitcher which was seen in his debut where he got 8 fly outs compared to 0 groundouts. He had the wind at his back as a 10th defender which helped him deliver 6 shutout innings; but now that he is facing the Dodgers and the wind is forecasted to be blowing from right field to left, expect the lefty to give at least one dinger. Betts is by far the most likely candidate to homer especially since 43% of the contact he is making has resulted in a fly ball so do not be shocked when he connects for a deep shot on Sunday.

Juan Soto, Yankees (vs Blue Jays)

Juan Soto has not taken advantage of the short porch in right field, but that is about to change. He gets to face Bowden Francis who struggled in his season debut allowing 7 runs to the Astros on the back of 3 HRs. It is a bit puzzling that Soto is yet to hit a dinger at home since he is averaging a career high exit velocity of 94.9 MPH so it just seems like a matter of time and a lot of the puzzle pieces are coming together for Sunday to be the day.

Jose Siri, Rays (@ Rockies)

Siri is one of the most underrated 5 tools players in the MLB. He is an extra base machine hitting a XBH in 12% of his at bats in 2023. He is a great defender in center field leading to regular playing time as he has started every game so far this year. His speed is elite too. He is tied for the league lead in steals with 6. The only real part of his game that is lacking is his base hit abilities since he is yet to hit over .250 in a full season. Siri has enough tools to be a consistent fantasy producer, but he gets one last game at Coors Field so expect all these tools to be on full display in the series finale on Sunday. It also does not hurt that he is facing Dakota Hudson who he has gone 3 for 3 against in his career with 2 HRs.

Dream Team

SP: Garrett Crochet, White Sox (@ Royals)

C/1B: Matt Olson, Braves (vs Diamondbacks)

2B: Mookie Betts, Dodgers (@ Cubs)

3B: Oswaldo Cabrera, Yankees (vs Blue Jays)

SS: Luis Guillorme, Braves (vs Diamondbacks)

OF: Juan Soto, Yankees (vs Blue Jays)

OF: Marcell Ozuna, Braves (vs Diamondbacks)

OF: Michael Harris II, Braves (vs Diamondbacks)

UTL: Mike Tauchman, Cubs (vs Dodgers)

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