9 "MUST KNOW" MLB Stats (4/19)

43.1% Whiff Rate

There are some underlying stats that would indicate that Jack Flaherty is in line for a bounce back season. There is no stat that provides more hope than the current Whiff % of his slider. Flaherty's slider was his go-to strikeout pitch during his prime as he had a 45.4% Whiff rate over the 2018-2019 seasons when he was dominating the league. Following his drop in performance, his slider became more of a liability as he only garnered a 28.3% Whiff rate on the pitch over the 2022-2023 seasons. In 2024, Flaherty looks like he has found the fountain of youth with his slider Whiff rate sitting at 43.1% to open the year. If Flaherty can maintain the newfound bite on his slider, he is going to rack up a lot of strikeouts.

.346 xBA

Dakota Hudson has been pretty average to open the year with a 4.15 ERA, but underlying stats indicate he may be getting lucky and should have much worse stats. Hudson's most used pitch is his sinker which he has thrown 37.8% of the time to open the year and so far it has been his best pitch as he stymied opponents holding them to a .174 average on the pitch, but this has been luck more than anything. Statistically, Hudson's sinker is very hittable as the advanced metrics indicate he should be getting lit up with a .346 expected batting average on the pitch. The .172 difference between his real and expected batting average will not hold up and once his luck runs out, Hudson's stats will take a big step back.

2.37 HR9

Kyle Gibson has been getting teed up to begin the season with a 2.37 HR9 on the young season. This is a concerning sign as he ranks 4th in the MLB among pitchers who have thrown at least 15 innings so whoever plays him should be looking to drive the ball. His matchup does not do him any favors either as he plays a Brewers lineup who have been smoking the ball all year leading the 2nd highest HR rate in the MLB. Expect to see a couple long balls from the Brewers in this one.

24% XBH Rate

After being division rivals over the past couple seasond with Sean Manaea playing in San Diego and San Francisco, Mookie Betts has plenty of experience against the southpaw and Betts has shown who has the edge in this matchup. Across 29 career at bats, Betts has been able to continually lift the ball against Manaea with 2 doubles, 2 triples and 3 homers. This slugging has led Betts to produce a 24% XBH rate showing Betts's utter dominance over Sean Manaea so when they match up on Friday, expect the Dodgers leadoff man to rack up a lot of TBs.

14 for 101

Blake Snell certainly has not gotten off to a good start to the season as he sports a 12.86 ERA through his first two starts of the year. This looks like a get-right spot for him as he plays a Diamondbacks lineup that he is very familiar with. He has 101 career at bats against the Dbacks and he has only allowed 14 hits leading to a .138 average. While 5 of those hits did end up being HRs, Snell has shown he has the upper hand against the Dback hitters throughout his career.

1.67 HR per game

The Orioles are absolutely mashing the ball as of late leading them to lead the entire MLB in HR rate with 1.67 HRs per game so they are always an offense to watch when they play. They get an especially juicy matchup on Friday as they take on the Royals' Alec Marsh who got torched a year ago. Marsh allowed a 1.9 HR9 in his limited action last year, while he did not pitch enough innings to qualify for the league leaders if he had, his 1.9 figure would have been the 4th highest value among all qualified pitchers. With an offense that is in elite form and a very exploitable pitcher on the mound, the Orioles are in line for a HUGE day.

.804 OPS

When you think of premier offenses, the Rockies do not typically come to mind. Playing at Coors negates their lack of high end talent and makes them one of the most exciting offenses to watch. The team carries a .804 OPS when playing at home, a figure which ranks 5th in the entire MLB. The Rockies hitters are in line for solid lines anytime they are at Coors, but with a matchup against Emerson Hancock on deck, the Rockies offense is in a smash spot.

(4-0)

Justin Verlander makes his long awaited return to the mound and he could not get an easier landing spot. He plays the Nationals, a team he has been perfect against across his career. Verlander has made 4 starts against the Nationals and he has won all 4 games while producing a 1.85 ERA. The only thing that may hold Verlander back is his durability. He is coming off an injury and will likely be on a strict pitch count but if he is efficient with his pitches and remains in the game long enough to qualify for a win, he should maintain his perfect record against the Nationals.

11.8 BB9

Who knows if this stat will even come into play with AJ Puk seemingly getting pushed back everyday this week and for good reason. Puk just cannot find the strike zone posting a ridiculous 11.8 BB9 through 3 starts this season. He is now slated to face the Cubs and the northsiders have to be licking their chops. The Cubs are one of the most patient teams in the league, walking at the 5th highest rate garnering 4 walks per game. As long as Puk is in the game, expect to see a lot of Cubs on base which should lead to a ton of runs.