9 "MUST KNOW" MLB Stats (4/15)

(3-0) & 2.39 ERA

Monday will mark Martin Perez's 5th career start against the Mets and he has done it as a journeyman making those starts for 5 different teams. Perez has not needed a steady environment to find success though because no matter what team he represents, when he starts against the Mets he has a great game. Over his 4 previous starts, Perez has a 2.39 ERA and an undefeated 3-0 record. Do not expect Perez to rack up a lot of strikeouts but he does limit hard contact so he should be able to navigate this up and down Mets lineup and come away with a quality start. 

.600 OBP

The Giants have loved when AJ Puk has come to town finding continual success against the lefty. The Giants active roster is a combined 6 for 12 against the former reliever while also reaching base 3 more times via walks. That is a .600 OBP! The Giants have not even faced Puk as a starter yet where he has struggled to start the season posting 5.91 ERA and walking a league high 14 batters in just 10.2 IP. The Giants will have men on base early and often Monday so expect a nice run total from the G-Men.

0.92 ERA; 0.56 WHIP & 15.1 K9

Joe Musgrove did not get off to a strong start to his career posting an ERA of 4.33 during his time with the Pirates. One of his biggest failures as a Pirate was his inability to compete against the division rival Brewers allowing a 6.14 ERA to the Brew Crew while dawning a Pirate uniform. Since becoming a Padre, Musgrove has completely changed his game to become a premier starting pitcher and this change is never more evident than when looking at how he conquered his former kryptonite, the Brewers. As a Padre, Musgrove has dominated the Brewers with a 0.92 ERA, 0.56 WHIP and 15.1 K9. The Brewers truly have no answer for the Padre Joe Musgrove. This is not a different Brewers team he has beaten either as the current Brewers active roster is a combined 5 for 35 against Musgrove over their careers. Musgrove is off to a slow start to the season, but look for him to get on track Monday.

10.9 K9

A 10.9 K9 is a great figure that any pitcher should be proud of, but for Tyler Glasnow, it is a bit of a disappointment. During Glasnow's peak, the 2020-2023 seasons, Glasnow was a K monster with a 12.8 K9. He has not shown any reason for us to think he is due for a regression from that number so with a K9 nearly 2 whole units below what we have grown accustomed to from Glasnow expect an even greater number of strikeouts to come from the righty as the season rolls on. Glasnow is currently sitting 3rd in the MLB in strikeouts so imagine how high his ceiling truly is if he can get back into his prime form. Look for that positive regression to kick off on Monday since he is playing a nationals squad that has scored the 6th fewest runs so far in 2024.

13 XBHs

Bobby Witt Jr has only appeared in 16 games this year and he has already racked up an impressive 13 XBHs which is 2nd in the majors and he is only trailing the great Shohei Ohtani. Regardless of who Bobby Witt Jr is facing, he is in line for a huge day, but Monday is a guaranteed smash spot for Witt. He is facing Nick Nastrini who will be making his major league debut. Nastrini is not getting called up because of his own success, he is getting called up because the White Sox need arms right now. Nastrini has not proven he is major league ready in the minors. He has gotten beat around to start his AAA campaign allowing a 7.71 ERA to start the year and has gotten terrorized by the long ball with a 2.57 HR9 to go along with that inflated ERA. Expect Witt to make some great contact on Monday and add to his 13 XBHs.

9.75 ERA 

The Orioles are about to pop off. Louie Varland seems destined to be a bullpen arm as he does not look cut out to traverse a major league lineup on a routine basis. Over Varland's last 5 starts dating back to 2023, he has gotten absolutely torched. He has a 9.75 ERA in those games and it has been the home runs that have really hurt him. He has allowed 8 HRs over that same span leading to a ridiculous 3.00 HR9. Expect this Orioles lineup to show out and deliver a huge run total on Monday.

7 for 33

Facing the White Sox is a huge boon for any starting pitcher, but this is not Seth Lugo's first rodeo either. He has already displayed immense success against this roster with their current roster going a combined 7 for 33 against Lugo. Lugo has opened the 2024 season in great form allowing a mere 3 ERs over just 18.2 IP. Look for Lugo to continue his hot streak against a struggling White Sox lineup.

26 Hits

This seems like a bit of deja vu with the Rays and Angels matching up once again after meeting just last week. There is one key difference though in that Zach Eflin and Patrick Sandoval will be facing off. Both of these offenses showed out when these pitchers took the mound last time. In Eflin's start, the Angels ended up racking up 14 hits and in Sandoval's start, the Rays ended up with 12 hits; resulting in a combined 26 hits for these offenses in the games these pitchers last pitched. With both of these guys off to a slow start, expect a bunch of offensive firepower from these offenses.

3 for 11

Kyle Schwarber has not found continual success against Monday's probable starter Cal Quantrill going 3 for 11, but those 3 hits have been extremely loud with all 3 of them leaving the park. Quantrill has already gotten beat by the long ball this season allowing 4 homers in just 15 innings. Do not be surprised when Schwarber ends up making a deposit in the bleachers.