Slate Breaker: FD MLB DFS (3/28)

Top Pitchers

Play of the Day: Tarik Skubal, Tigers (@ White Sox)

Skubal looks to be on the precipice of a big jump into superstardom. He came back from injury last year and was in dominant form with a 2.80 ERA and a 11.4 K9 mark. He carried over this success to the spring having allowed just 4 ERs while striking out 19 across 14 spring innings. He will get his season off to a strong start as he gets a very soft landing spot with a matchup against a White Sox team that scored the 2nd fewest runs in the MLB a year ago and failed to make a single major acquisition over the offseason. Even before the White Sox became the laughing stock of the MLB, Skubal still dominated the team with 50 strikeouts over 40 career innings. Skubal has a high floor and an even higher ceiling so expect great things for the nasty lefty to begin the year.

Spencer Strider, Braves (@ Phillies)

You cannot ignore Strider when he is on a slate. He has revolutionized the game with the best three pitch combo we have seen in the past 20 years so he always warrants your consideration with his strong strikeout floor. He has also dominated this Phillies team (well in the regular season at least) with 8 wins in 8 appearances and 72! strikeouts over just 47.1 career innings. Strider will be chalky but he is a very safe play even against a very talented Phillies lineup.

Pablo Lopez, Twins (@ Royals)

Lopez was an under the radar revelation a year ago, becoming one of the most consistent pitchers in all of baseball. He was a boon for both the Twins and fantasy managers thanks in large part to his ability to eat up innings and work deep into games. In his first season as the Twins' ace, Lopez was tied for 4th in the entire MLB with 20 quality starts showing the kind of consistency you can expect out of the former Marlin. Lopez has a strong floor regardless of opponent, but with a matchup against the Royals on tap to begin the season, fantasy managers should be licking their chops. If the top two pitchers on this list do not appeal to you, then look no further than Lopez.

Logan Webb, Giants (@ Padres)

There is no reason that Logan Webb should be under $10K. Sure he may not be a big time strikeout pitcher but he still is very efficient, routinely working deep into games. Webb has also dominated this Padres team in recent memory. He has allowed a total of just 2 ERs combined across his last 4 outings against the Padres and has gone at least 8 innings in 3 of those 4 games. You should never take this Padres team too lightly, but it seems like Webb has their number for the time being. Given his price and his recent success against the Padres, Webb is a very safe play, though his ceiling is limited thanks to his low strikeout numbers.

Top Stacks

Dodgers (vs Cardinals)

How can anyone trust Miles Mikolas at this point? He has an ERA well over 4 in 3 of his last 4 seasons and allowed the most hits and earned runs in the MLB a year ago. Things will not be getting any easier as he begins to decline with age and he will not get a free pass to begin the season since he opens against the vaunted Dodgers lineup. Obviously the top of the Dodgers lineup needs no endorsement especially with a matchup against Mikolas on hand, but just about every regular piece of this Dodgers lineup is in play except maybe Jason Heyward. I especially like the lefties hitting towards the bottom of the lineup with James Outman and Gavin Lux offering tantalizing upside and value due to their proximity to the deadly top of the lineup. Pairing Lux or Outman with 2 of the boppers at the top of the lineup seems like a recipe of success to open the season.

Tigers (@ White Sox)

The Tigers may not be a sexy lineup with a bunch of big names that jump out at you but they should not be underestimated. They have a core of young players who started to come on a bit down the stretch last season and they get one of the easiest matchups to begin the season. They are taking on reliever turned starter Garrett Crochet who will be making his first career start in the majors so expect plenty of mistakes even though he has looked sharp during the spring. I like a lot of the righties in this lineup but one guy in particular that I will need in my lineup is Andy Ibanez who showed great line drive ability a year ago. He hit an XBH in 10% of his at bats and was especially potent against lefties with an XBH in 14% of at bats against southpaws. If Ibanez slots into the top half of the Tigers opening day lineup he has juicy potential thanks to his low price and his underrated slugging ability.

Reds (vs Nationals) 

Josiah Gray is by no means a poor pitcher, but he is overly reliant on his fastball and this Reds team loves to crush fastballs. The Reds also seem like they are priced a bit too low with Elly De La Cruz the top priced player at $3,400 and Spencer Steer the only other Red priced over $3K. I especially love Elly De La Cruz here since he has already had some success against Gray going 1-3 against the righty with a dinger and he has shown all his tools this spring with multiple homers and 5 steals in limited action. I also like Jake Fraley here if he hits anywhere near the top of the lineup which he likely will since he crushes right handed pitchers with 30 of his 33 XBHs coming against righties in 2023.

One Offs

Alex Bregman, Astros (vs Yankees)

I do like the Astros lineup as a whole, but hitting at home does limit their upside compared to hitting at Yankee Stadium. Alex Bregman needs consideration anytime he faces a lefty though. And this is not just any lefty, as he takes on Nestor Cortes who has succeeded against in the past going 3-8 with a homer. He is also coming into the season riding a spring hot streak with a average not far from the 400 line and multiple homers. Make sure you have Bregman in your lineup even if you are not planning on stacking the Astros.

Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees (@ Astros)

I usually would never highlight a player taking on Framber Valdez since he is one of the top pitchers in all of baseball at limiting hard contact, but Stanton has him figured out a bit. In 8 career at bats he has reached base safely 4 times and even showed his power with a double and a homer against the finessing lefty. Stanton is also in great form, looking like his old self during spring training with 4 homers and an average well over 300. Stanton does have some risk given Valdez and the Astros' pedigree but it is a risk I am willing to take given his strong form over the spring.

Mike Yastrzemski, Giants (@ Padres)

I am going out on a limb with this one a bit, but Yaz's streak of success against Yu Darvish cannot be ignored. No hitter has a longer history of success against a starter on this opening slate than Yaz does against Darvish with Yaz going 8-21 against the Japanese native with 3 of those hits leaving the park. Now Yastrzemski has never been a consistent hitter at any point during his career and I don't even know if he is a lock for the starting lineup following the addition of Jung Hoo Lee and Jorge Soler, but if he does end up cracking the starting lineup he is worth the roll of the dice.

Dream Team

Pitcher: Tarik Skubal, Tigers (@ White Sox)

C/1B: Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (vs Cardinals)

2B: Gavin Lux, Dodgers (vs Cardinals)

3B: Andy Ibanez, Tigers (@ White Sox)

SS: Elly De La Cruz, Reds (vs Nationals)

OF: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (vs Cardinals)

OF: Jake Fraley, Reds (vs Nationals)

OF: Matt Vierling, Tigers (@ White Sox)

UTIL: Spencer Torkelson, Tigers (@ White Sox)

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