Slate Breaker: FD NFL DFS Playoffs (Divisional)

Quarterbacks

Play of the Day: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (@ Bills)

Everyone knows Patrick Mahomes is a great QB, but he is an even better QB when the games matter most with a stellar postseason resume. That postseason production is on only seen on the football field, but also in the stat department since he is an elite fantasy producer when the calendar turns to January. Coming into the season, Mahomes has scored 20+ FDP in 11 of his 14 career postseason games. Now he did not deliver 20 FDP in his first postseason this year, but that was due to horrible weather conditions. It will still be chilly this week, but it will not be cold enough to affect Mahomes' play. He should easily top 20 FDP and is a great value at $7,700 and he has a great history of playoff success against this Bills team with Mahomes scoring 40+ FDP last time they met in the postseason.

Josh Allen, Bills (vs Chiefs)

Josh Allen is a playoff king. Well at least in terms of fantasy production since he is yet to reach the Super Bowl. His career numbers are insane with an average of 282 passing yards, 55 rushing yards and 2.7 total TDs per game. Allen is by far the most expensive QB on this slate, but he is worth that price with the consistency he has provided as a playoff QB. The Kansas City defense is very good this year, but Josh Allen is too good to be stopped. His price may limit you, but he has the highest floor out of any QB on this slate so he will not leave you disappointed.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens (vs Texans)

The Texans are fairly vulnerable against QBs allowing 18.2 FDP to opposing QBs but there is one key stat that makes Lamar Jackson an elite play this week. No team allowed more rushing TDs to the QB position than the Texans who allowed a league high 7 rushing TDs. With the Ravens failing to find any kind of real consistency out of their RB room, do not be surprised to see Jackson take on an even bigger role in the Ravens rushing attack which could lead to a monstrous day for the QB. Jackson seems to have leveled up this year so let's hope that play with translate over to the playoffs and Jackson can continue his stellar string of games.

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (@ Lions)

Mayfield has the perfect storm to produce a solid fantasy line. The Lions have a very weak pass defense which resulted in them allowing the 3rd most FDP to QBs this year, while they are terrific against the run, allowing the least FDP to RBs. The Lions will be able to score so Baker is expected to carry a huge offensive load if the Buccaneers want to keep pace. Baker has been in great form too, scoring 18+ in 5 straight games except the season finale where they basically just ran out the clock the whole game. Baker does not have a huge ceiling, but he could end up being a great value with a price of just $7,300.

Running Backs

Play of the Day: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (vs Packers)

We have to roll with CMC as long as the 49ers are alive. He got the 49ers to this point so expect the 49ers to lean on their best player in their pursuit of a trophy. He also gets the best matchup out of any RB on this slate. The Packers are the 13th worst defense against RBs so the NFL's 3rd best run offense should be able to dominate this game on the ground. CMC will be the main benefactor from this matchup but let's be real, we were playing CMC regardless of matchup with at least 11 FDP in every game this year and an average of more than 22 FDP. You are basically getting a QB in your RB slot. CMC will be very chalky but you need a piece of that chalk if you want to cash this weekend.

Aaron Jones, Packers (@ 49ers)

This one does scare me a bit, but how can we fade Jones right now. He is riding the hottest streak of his career with 4 straight 100+ yard games and a monster 30+ FDP game against Dallas who is one of the NFL's top run defenses. If this game remains competitive, Jones will have to have been productive, but I am worried that this 49ers offense may just run away with this game. The matchup is a bit daunting, but I have faith that Jones will score at least double digit FDP. Jones is just too hot to fade, but I would temper expectations a bit.

James Cook, Bills (vs Chiefs)

The Bills made it obvious that they want to make Cook a major part of their playoff offense with the young RB handling 22 touches last week and while that did not lead to crazy production, the usage alone makes him an elite option. When these two teams met earlier in the season, Cook was the Bills' best option. He averaged 5.8 YPC while racking up 83 receiving yards. Cook will likely see 20+ touches once again in what is expected to be a high scoring game so he seems to be the clear 2nd best RB play behind CMC.

Rachaad White, Buccaneers (@ Lions)

The Lions are a horrible matchup for RBs, but I have too much faith in his usage. He is a lock for double digit FDP thanks to being heavily involved as both a rusher and pass catcher. I would not be too worried about the matchup either since White has been fairly matchup proof this year. He has scored 14+ FDP against some of the NFL's top defenses against RBs, namely the Bills & 49ers. The Bucs will struggle with this Lions pass rush so expect White to be even more involved thanks to his usage as a safety blanket. White is a very safe floor play with elite upside if he can score and find success on the ground.

Wide Receivers

Play of the Day: Rashee Rice, Chiefs (@ Bills)

It seems like there has been an official changing of the guards in KC. After years as the team's top target, Kelce has been usurped and the passing offense runs through Rice. The rookie has really come on strong to end the season with at least 9 targets in 6 of his last 7 games leading to stellar fantasy production with 10+ FDP in 6 of his last 7. Rice is by far the top value on his slate with a strong floor and elite upside thanks to his heavy redzone usage.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions (vs Buccaneers)

ARSB is going to catch at least 6 passes and he is going to rack up at least 100 yards that production alone should be good enough to deliver value so if he finds the endzone, he will be the top scoring WR.  The only thing really holding the young WR back is his price since he is a slate high $9,200. His fantasy prospects are only helped by his matchup since he is playing a Buccaneers defense who has allowed the 4th most yards to WRs this year. ARSB already dominated this secondary once this year when he posted a 12/124/1 line back in October. Do not expect anything less than elite production from the star WR.

Mike Evans, Buccaneers (@ Lions)

This Buccaneers Lions game is going to WR show. Both of these secondaries are horrible against the pass allowing a bunch of fantasy production to WRs. Evans is the obvious top option to choose from this offense, but a case can be made for any Buc WR with the rookie Trey Palmer being my second favorite option. The Bucs should come close to the 300 passing yard mark if they do not completely blow past that number. There is plenty of production to go around for the Bucs WRs.

Ravens WRs (vs Texans)

The Ravens should win this game and Lamar will be able to move the ball through the air against this defense. Zay Flowers has been the obvious top target for this team as the season went on, but leading the team in targets was not enough usage to result in fantasy consistency with just a single 100+ yards game since most of his usage came close to the line of scrimmage. He has scored a lot down the stretch so he has been productive, but that has resulted in a price increase and he may be too high for my liking now and it is the veteran OBJ who is actually catching my eye. The Texans are fairly vulnerable to the deep ball allowing the 23rd highest yards per completion figure in the league. I like his chances of connecting on a deep ball and finding the endzone which will instantly make him a top value.

Packers WRs (@ 49ers)

The Packers best plan of attack against this 49ers defense will be moving Love out of the pocket and trying to get the ball to these WRs down the field. One of these WRs will be productive, but who knows who it will be. This is a team that is filled with very young and inexperienced WRs and they do not have a true top WR and they tend to just go with a hot hand approach. Last week it was Romeo Doubs, but to close out the season it was mainly Jayden Reed. Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks have also had their moments to shine. The point is that the production is always varying with this team and they are nothing more than a crapshoot. If I had to give an order it would be Reed, Doubs, Watson, Wicks. One of these WRs will be a terrific value with the most expensive guy being just $6,600, but good luck figuring out who it will be.

Tight Ends

Ravens TE (vs Houston)

I am all in on the Ravens TE this week, whoever it may end up being. Mark Andrews is making a push to return and has logged back to back full practices this week. We all should know what Andrews brings to the table, he is one of the best TEs in football and I will have no worries about his usage if he is cleared to play. If Andrews sits, Isaiah Likely is a must play. He has scored 6+ FDP in 6 straight games and has 15+ in half of those games. The Texans are also very bad against TEs allowing the 5th most yards to the position. Regardless of who ends up being the Ravens starting TE, he needs to be in your lineup.

Sam LaPorta, Lions (vs Buccaneers)

LaPorta was obviously not at full health last week, but he still played over 80% of the team's offensive stats so with another week of healing under his belt expect LaPorta to be an even bigger part of this offense. He is in a position to shine since the Bucs allow the 3rd most yards to the TE position. I still worry that he will not be quite healthy enough to produce his usual elite lines, but he will definitely be better than last week.

George Kittle, 49ers (vs Packers)

For all the weapons that this 49ers offense has, when Purdy needs to deliver, he goes to Kittle. Kittle provides Purdy with a reliable safety blanket so I expect him to be one of the top weapons in the passing games for the entirety of the 49ers playoff run.

Dalton Kincaid, Bills (vs Chiefs)

Kincaid continues to play a prominent role in this offense. He has definitely locked up the role of the team's number 2 target, but he has even been pushing Diggs for Allen's go to target especially given Diggs' struggles. He is basically a lock for 6+ targets and is averaging a team high 77 yards per game over their last 3 games. The Chiefs are also great at eliminating their opponent's WR1 thanks to the elite play of L'Jarius Sneed so with Diggs expected to be limited, expect a great game from the rookie TE.

Defenses

Top Plays: 49ers D/ST (vs Packers); Ravens D/ST (vs Texans); Lions D/ST (vs Buccaneers) & Chiefs D/ST (@ Bills)

Dream Team

(Sat-Sun)

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (@ Bills)

RB1: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (vs Packers)

RB2: James Cook, Bills (vs Chiefs)

WR1: Rashee Rice, Chiefs (@ Bills)

WR2: Odell Beckham Jr., Ravens (vs Texans)

WR3: Trey Palmer, Buccaneers (@ Lions)

TE: Isaiah Likely, Ravens (vs Texans)

Flex: Dalton Kincaid, Bills (vs Chiefs)

D/ST: Ravens (vs Texans)

Dream Team

(Sat Only)

QB: Lamar Jackson, Ravens (vs Texans)

RB1: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (vs Packers)

RB2: Aaron Jones, Packers (@ 49ers)

WR1: Jayden Reed, Packers (@ 49ers)

WR2: Odell Backham Jr., Ravens (vs Texans)

WR3: Jauan Jennings, 49ers (vs Packers)

TE: Isaiah Likely, Ravens (vs Texans)

Flex: George Kittle, 49ers (vs Packers)

D/ST: Ravens (vs Texans)

Dream Team

(Sun Only)

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (@ Bills)

RB1: James Cook, Bills (vs Chiefs)

RB2: Rachaad White, Buccaneers (@ Lions)

WR1: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions (vs Buccaneers)

WR2: Rashee Rice, Chiefs (@ Bills)

WR3: Mike Evans, Buccaneers (@ Lions)

TE: Dalton Kincaid, Bills (vs Chiefs)

Flex: Richie James, Chiefs (@ Bills)

D/ST: Buccaneers (@ Lions)

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