Slate Breaker: FD CFB DFS National Championship

Washington vs Michigan

In the final college football DFS contests of the year, locking down the 1.5 MVP slot will make or break your lineup. When it comes to the MVP slot, there seems like 2 obvious options and it all boils down to who you think will win. If you think Michigan will win the game in typical Michigan fashion then Blake Corum needs to be in your lineup. He is a 20+ FDP machine and should continue that success whether Michigan wins or not. Washington showed they cannot handle potent running games after allowing 100+ total yards and a score to both of Texas's top backs. You will need Blake Corum in your lineup regardless, but he will be the top scorer on this slate if Michigan wins so you will need him in your MVP slot. If Washington wins, it will be the result of a masterpiece from their star, Michael Penix. Penix has taken this program to historical heights on the back of a record breaking season so even though a matchup against Michigan is a daunting challenge, if anyone can rise to the occasion it is Penix. To be fair, Penix has not had a test that comes anywhere close to the talents of this Michigan defense, but he was in this same position against Texas and then passed for over 400 yards and multiple scores. Penix is nowhere close to a sure thing this week, but if you think that Washington will be able to top Michigan then you will need Penix in your lineup. Some other dark horse candidates for your MVP slot include Michigan's QB JJ McCarthy and Washington 2 top WRs, Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan. Washington's defense continues to be a problem after allowing another opponent to top 30 points. This Michigan offense should be productive once again so JJ McCarthy is a fairly safe play with elite upside. Before closing out the season with a horrific schedule against some of the Big Ten's top defenses, McCarthy was a superb fantasy QB. In 6 of his first 8 games, McCarthy topped 22 FDP and he got back on track against a tough Alabama defense with 23.34 FDP. Expect production from McCarthy, but keep in mind when a defense seemed like a tough task for McCarthy to navigate, Michigan has shown they are okay with keeping the ball out of his hands by just running the ball 40 times. McCarthy seems like one of the top values on the slate, but he could become obsolete if the Washington defense overwhelms him. Washington has a trio of elite WRs in Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja'Lynn Polk, but Polk is far too inconsistent of a producer to be viewed as anything more than a gamble especially with McMillan back in the lineup. Odunze and McMillan on the other hand are some of the top values on the slate. For players who both average more than 17.5 FDP per game, they are extremely cheap. I expect Dillon Johnson and this Washington running game to get stymied this week so the Washington passing attack will be used early and often, which will lead to plenty of usage for both Odunze and McMillan. When given the opportunity, both these guys produce with a floor of 80 yards when fully integrated into the offense and a ceiling that is as high as anyone. You will need at least of these Washington WRs in your lineups, but I love stacking McMillan with Odunze since they are both such vital pieces of this offense. There are no other values on this slate like the guys listed above, but there are some high upside guys who are worth the gamble. Let's start with the Michigan gadget players who they like to get the ball to in space. First is backup RB Donovan Edwards. Edwards has shown the ability to do a lot with just a little so while Corum will be absorbing most of the RB work, Edwards will be brought in on crucial passing down which means he will likely be getting 1 on 1 matchups with LBs in the passing game where he will only have to make one man miss to instantly deliver value on his low price. The cheap Michigan player I am truly intrigued by is Semaj Morgan. Michigan made it obvious that they want to get the ball into Morgan's hands with the Freshman leading all Michigan pass catchers in targets and touches in their Semi Final game. He is yet to have a true monster game, but with another high usage game coming his way, I like his chances of producing. Another viable dart throw is Washington TE Jack Westover. Westover is not locked into a huge role, but in tight spaces and when under duress, Penix is quick to look his way. He does not have a playable floor, but he only needs one score to deliver value and has multiple score potential so if you need a cheap option to stack with Michael Penix, I recommend Westover. The main Michigan pass catchers are a bit of a crapshoot for me. McCarthy does not offer a safe enough passing floor to make any of them reliable and there is not true alpha in this mix. I like Colston Loveland the most since he has a floor of at least 5 points, but I am not eager to play him. Roman Wilson looked to get back on track last week after a rough stretch of games to close out the season following a blistering start, but with no guaranteed usage and a tough matchup against Jabbar Muhammad, I will be limiting my exposure to him. If you really want to get different, roll with Cornelius Johnson and if he does produce, he could be a tournament winner since his exposure will be so low; but I will not be putting him in any of my lineups.


Dream Team

RB Blake Corum, Michigan (1.5X)

QB JJ McCarthy, Michigan

WR Rome Odunze, Washington

WR Jalen McMillan, Washington

WR Semaj Morgan, Michigan


**DISCLAIMER: Remember, sports and fantasy are supposed to be fun. Please play responsibly.**

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Slate Breaker: FD CFB DFS Week 5 (Fri)

Quarterbacks Play of the Day: Jack Plummer, Louisville (@ NC St) This Louisville offense is far and away the best unit playing Friday night and Jack Plummer is the man leading the show. He has been a great passer throwing for 280 yards per game and he is underachieving a bit after only scoring 1 TD in two different games. Being the focal point of this offense, Plummer is more likely to have multiple scores in a game that not so he has a great baseline with the potential for a huge game if it ends up being competitive.  Plummer provides more consistency than any other QB on this slate. Brennan Armstrong, North Carolina State (vs Louisville) Armstrong has not been the passer that he was two years ago, but he has been a solid runner. Armstrong has averaged double digit runs in every game and been a serious threat in the redzone rushing for 3 TDs in 4 games. This rushing baseline provides Armstrong with a floor of about 20 points when you add in his mediocre passing. If Armstrong can p...
Read more

Freaks of the Week 5/12-5/18

 Freaks of the Week 5/12-5/18 By: Spent Brockman Nolan Arenado, St Louis Cardinals Arenado's first six weeks of the season was emblematic of the Cardinals' horrendous start to the season. Coming into the week the Cardinals were a woeful 13-25 the polar opposite of what the consensus NL Central favorites had envisioned coming into the season. Arenado played a key role in the team's abysmal start sporting a .233 average to go along with just 3 homers and 19 RBIs; numbers like this for a perennial all star looked like the beginning of the end for the 32 year old third baseman. Arenado put any thought about his career being in decline to rest by being the most dominant player in baseball over the past 7 days. Over the series against the Red Sox and Brewers, the slugger hit an eye popping 6 homers while driving 15 runs accompanied by a .414 average. This weeklong dominance was not the result of a couple superb games instead it was the result of continued and utter supremacy as h...
Read more

Slate Breaker: FD MLB DFS (3/31)

Top Pitchers Play of the Day: Chris Sale, Braves (@ Phillies) Chris Sale is the obvious name that pops out when looking at Sunday's pitchers. He has the best raw stuff that is second to none so the only real obstacle that stands in front of him is himself. He was a bit inconsistent last year, but his strikeout ability was still on display with a K9 over 11. His strikeouts provide a strong fantasy floor regardless of opponent but the Phillies are a plus matchup since they struck out at the 8th highest rate in the 2023 season. Sale was in strong form over the spring with a K9 over 14 so expect a strong game from Sale as he makes a good first impression with his new team. Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays (@ Rays) Gausman would normally be able to project higher than Chris Sale, but there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Gausman to open the season. He did not have much of a Spring Training due to shoulder fatigue, but he was able to show his sharpness by striking out 7 over 3 innings on Mon...
Read more