Slate Breaker: FD NFL DFS Week 17

Quarterbacks

Play of the Day: Lamar Jackson, Ravens (vs Dolphins)

How can you not roll with Jackson right now? The Ravens are the hottest team in all of football and this recent hot streak has come on the back of stellar play by their leader Lamar Jackson. He just dominated one of the best defenses in the league with 250+ yards and multiple TDs and now he takes on one of the league's best offenses so he will have to score points. Jackson should also be able to find the endzone with his legs since the Dolphins allow the 5th most rushing TDs to QBs. Jackson has a strong floor but this will not be a floor game since he will have to outpace the Dolphins. Expect a huge day for the MVP frontrunner.

Brock Purdy, 49ers (vs Commanders)

After an abysmal outing last week, Purdy is enemy number 1 in fantasy circles since he booted a bunch of people from their season long leagues. Do not let that bad taste in your mouth cloud your judgment, Purdy is going to have a huge week. The Commanders defense simply cannot stop anyone right now. They gave up 30 points to the Jets so just imagine how points this 49ers offense will hang on them. Purdy will be a man on a mission against the NFL's worst defense so he is going to put up some numbies.

CJ Stroud, Texans (vs Titans)

CJ Stroud is back and the division is one the line so there is no way Stroud does not show out. The Texans are also home and Stroud cooks at home with an average of 23.6 FDP when playing at NRG. Stroud has shown up in the clutch time and time again so he will be ready to step up in this moment and bring home a crucial win for the Texans while providing a stellar fantasy line as a byproduct.

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (vs Saints)

Mayfield and this Bucs passing game has taken off in recent weeks. Baker has been carrying the load on offense averaging 269 yards and 3 TDs per game over the last 3 games. Baker will have to continue this hot streak if he wants to retain control of the division lead. Baker is still not someone I fully trust because his play style is too conservative for him to be a constant fantasy producer. Baker is too hot to ignore, but he does carry some risk.

Running Backs

Play of the Day: Austin Ekeler, Chargers (@ Broncos)

Ekeler's fantasy value looked dead in the water when he was stripped of his feature back role and was stuck biding his time in a RBBC. Well luckily Brandon Staley was fired and Ekeler immediately stepped back into the feature back role. Recapturing the role did not immediately lead to fantasy success, but he was playing one of the NFL's top run defenses. Now he gets one of the NFL's worst defenses against RBs and his price is still low following his stretch of lackluster production so he will be a difference maker.

Travis Etienne Jr., Jaguars (vs Panthers)

Etienne had a rough couple of weeks but the Jaguars will need him to carry the load this week if they want to remain in the mix for the division title. Trevor Lawrence is out so expect the Jaguars to run A LOT. He will likely be facing a loaded box on every play, but this is a Panthers defense that really cannot stop anyone. The Panthers have allowed the 5th most rushing yards and the most TDs to RBs this year so even when they stack the box, they still cannot stop the run. Etienne may end up with 30+ touches this game and he should easily be able to score 20+ FDP.

Ezekiel Elliot, Patriots (@ Bills)

I do not expect Elliot to have a great day on the ground, but he is an elite pass catching option at the moment. He is averaging more than 8 targets per game since becoming the feature back. That elite usage may even see an uptick since passing to your RBs is the best way to attack the Bills since they are allowing the 5th most receiving yards to the position this year. With Elliot likely to have 5+ catches and elite redzone usage, Elliot has the potential to be a great value.

Zamir White, Raiders (@ Colts)

I have a feeling that White will soon be a true starting back. He has thrived since replacing Josh Jacobs as the Raiders lead back. He is averaging 115 total yards per game and is the goalline back so he is as good as basically any RB right now. FanDuel still has not properly adjusted his price and he is clearly one of the top values at $6,100. White will be very chalky but you will need him in your lineup or you will be left behind.

Wide Receivers

Play of the Day: Zay Flowers, Ravens (vs Dolphins)

Flowers is slowly becoming an elite fantasy option. He has 8+ targets in 3 of his last 4 games which has led to elite production scoring 17+ FDP in each of the games he saw at least 8 targets. Now, the one time he missed that mark, he only scored 1.2 FDP but he was limited by an ankle injury. He is healthy now and will have to be a prominent part of this offense if the Ravens want to keep pace with the NFL's top offense.

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins (@ Ravens)

The Ravens are a tough matchup for most WRs, but Hill is not most WRs. The Ravens will likely try to bracket Hill all game long especially with Waddle out, but I have faith in Mike McDaniel's ability to find the weak spot in the defense and get the ball in Hill's hands. Hill should see elite usage which will provide a solid floor and if this game turns into a shootout, watch out.

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers (@ Commanders)

Even while Brock Purdy was having the worst game of his career, Aiyuk was still putting up numbers with a 6/113/0 stat line. Aiyuk is a big play machine leading the league in YPC with 18.5 yards and now he gets to play a Commanders defense who allows the 2nd most yards and most TDs to WRs. I smell a huge day incoming for Aiyuk with the 49ers expected to light up the Commanders.

Nico Collins, Texans (vs Titans)

CJ Stroud is back so Collins will once again be a fantasy stud. In their last full game together Collins saw 13 targets and turned that usage into a 9/191/1 line for an astounding 29.6 FDP. I do not expect that usage to drop at all this week since the Texans are still without their other star WR Tank Dell and they are playing a Titans secondary who has been horrible against WRs. The Titans have allowed the 2nd most catches and 5th most yards to WRs this year so with Collins locked into at least a 35% target share, a huge fantasy day is in the cards.

Broncos WRs (vs Chargers)

Courtland Sutton is out; Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims are both questionable. Is Brandon Johnson going to have a breakout game? Johnson would have been my play of the day if I knew that Jeudy was definitely missing this game, but even if Jeudy plays he will still see enough usage to deliver on his $4,700 price. Honestly, all of these WRs are great deals. The only problem is they play in the afternoon so you do have to gamble on their availability. At least one if not multiple of the WRs are going to be a terrific value against a Chargers defense who has allowed the 3rd most FDP to WRs this season.

Tight Ends

Play of the Day: Gerald Everett, Chargers (@ Broncos)

This is the perfect storm for a major day for Everett. He has taken over as the Chargers top target ever since Keenan Allen went down seeing 8 targets in 3 straight games. Now even Josh Palmer is out, so is it possible that Everett sees 15 targets? I think so. This increase in usage also comes at the perfect time since he is playing the Broncos who have allowed the 2nd most yards to TEs and the most TDs. Everett will easily score more than 10 FDP with the potential to be the top scoring TE on this slate.

Travis Kelce, Chiefs (vs Bengals)

Kelce has been extremely disappointing this year largely thanks to the emergence of Rashee Rice. This is a week where Kelce will once again be the top target in the offense though. The Bengals have struggled to cover TEs all year long allowing the most yards to the position so expect Kelce and the Chiefs to exploit this deficiency and produce another vintage Kelce game.

Trey McBride, Cardinals (@ Eagles)

You should know the spiel by now, I cannot write a Slate Breaker without including McBride he is truly an elite fantasy TE with unrivaled usage over the past 8 games. He is great and will continue to be a huge part of this offense, you really cannot go wrong with McBride in your lineup.

Chig Okonkwo, Titans (@ Texans)

Chig is becoming a real weapon in this Titans passing attack with 6 or more targets in 3 of his last 4 games. He has been producing too with 7 or more FDP in games where he has at least 6 targets. He does not offer the upside of these other TEs but he does provide a nice floor that most other TEs on this slate simply cannot provide.

Defenses

Play of the Day: 49ers D/ST (@ Commanders)

This pick is fairly easy. One of the best defenses plays one of the worst offenses so the math is pretty simple, play the 49ers. 

Other Plays: Bills D/ST (vs Patriots); Rams D/ST (@ Giants); Colts D/ST (vs Raiders); Raiders D/ST (@ Colts)

Dream Team

QB: Lamar Jackson, Ravens (vs Dolphins)

RB1: Travis Etiene, Jaguars (vs Panthers)

RB2: Zamir White, Raiders (@ Colts)

WR1: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins (@ Ravens)

WR2: Nico Collins, Texans (vs Titans)

WR3: Zay Flowers, Ravens (vs Dolphins)

TE: Gerald Everett, Chargers (@ Broncos)

Flex: Brandon Johnson, Broncos (vs Chargers)

D/ST: Raiders (@ Colts)

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