Slate Breaker: FD NFL DFS Week 16

Quarterbacks

Play of the Day: Justin Fields, Bears (vs Cardinals)

Fields has to be considered as an option regardless of opponent, but you really never know what you are going to get out of him. He definitely has Detroit figured out with 22.9 aFDP against them, but he is averaging just 16.7 FDP in his other 8. This should be a week he succeeds though. The Cardinals are bad against the pass allowing more than 250 passing yards and nearly 2 TDs per game and Fields has been known to capitalize on lesser matchups. He has played 5 of the 12 worst teams against QBs this year and is averaging 24.9 FDP in those games so with another easy matchup next in line, Fields has elite upside.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys (@ Dolphins)

The Cowboys will have to score points this week to keep up with the Dolphins so expect Dak to be firing early and often especially after their lackluster showing last week. The Dolphins offense is great, but the Dolphins defense does not compare. They are still a solid group, but they have their vulnerabilities. One of their biggest issues is keeping track of QBs in the redzone as they have allowed the 4th most rushing TDs to the position and Dak is great in those situations so expect him to take advantage if he sees the slightest opening. A high scoring game paired with high probability of a rushing TD makes Dak one of the top options this week.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals (@ Bears)

Kyler Murray is known for his rushing abilities, but this will be a week that his passing ability shines. He is playing a Bears defense that just allowed Joe Flacco to pass for 374 yards and have allowed the 3rd most passing TDs this season. Kyler will be his normal potent self on the ground so adding in strong passing upside makes him a terrific value. As long as he keeps his turnovers in check, he is in line for a big week.

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (vs Jaguars)

Mayfield has been great recently with 7 total TDs over his last 2 games and now he plays the Jaguars. Allowing the 3rd most FDP to QBs, the Jags have struggled all year long so a hot Baker should have no trouble dicing them up. This is a new Baker that we have not seen since his rookie year as he is no longer afraid to make the deep throws and it has made the Buccaneers the team to beat in the NFC South. With a lot on the line for Baker and the Bucs, expect a big showing as they try to inch closer to locking up the division crown. 

Nick Mullens, Vikings (vs Lions)

Besides 2 costly picks, Mullens was locked in during his first start as a Viking. He was accurate with a 79% completion percentage and produced in both the yardage and scoring department with more than 300 passing yards and multiple TDs. He now plays a pivotal division matchup against a Lions defense that continues to struggle against QBs. The Lions have allowed the 4th most FDP to QBs this season so even a backup QB like Nick Mullens will produce against them.

Running Backs

Start of the Day: Jonathan Taylor, Colts (@ Falcons)

JTT is back and do not hesitate to plug him right into your lineup. He was amazing in his time as the lead back this year as you can basically pencil him in for 15 FDP, but his upside is even more enticing this week. Even though Taylor was productive as the lead back, he was still not completely unleashed as Zack Moss also got work; but Moss is out this week so Taylor is about to explode. The Colts need a win to stay atop the division so expect them to ride their best player all game long.

Rachaad White, Buccaneers (vs Jaguars)

As Baker's game play has taken off, so has the Bucs running game and White has been there to absorb all that production. He has elite usage with 20+ carries in 3 straight games while averaging 35 receiving yards during that same span. White's floor has always been elite, but now his ceiling is as well. You simply cannot go wrong with White in your lineup.

Ty Chandler, Vikings (vs Lions)

Chandler took on the workhorse back role last week and looked like he was born for the role. He averaged 5.7 YPC while also being a decent producer in the passing game as he tacked on another 25 yards. The Lions are a very strong run defense as they have allowed the fewest rushing yards to RBs this season so there is a lot of risk attached to Chandler, but the usage is too appealing to pass up.

Aaron Jones, Packers (@ Panthers)

The main question surrounding Jones is how much work can he actually handle because he will be given an absurd amount this week. Christian Watson is out again. AJ Dillon and Jayden Reed will be out or limited which basically only leaves Jones as the proven offensive producer. He is yet to have a truly explosive game since Week 1, but he is playing a Panthers defense who has allowed 5th most rushing yards and the most rushing TDs to RBs this season. Without any other real options beyond Jones, he has to be productive for the Packers this week.

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers (vs Packers)

Hubbard still is not getting enough recognition. If he were only any other team he would be a top 10 fantasy RB. Hubbard has taken over the Panthers backfield as he is averaging more than 23 carries per game over the past 3 games. He now plays the Packers who have struggled against RBs. The Packers have allowed the 4th most rushing yards to the position. With great usage and a strong matchup, it is almost a sure thing that Hubbard returns solid value this week.

Wide Receivers

Play of the Day: Xavier Gipson, Jets (vs Commanders)

With Trevor Siemian back at QB for the Jets, I am putting all my eggs in the Gibson basket. He out targeted Garrett Wilson when Siemian has been the QB and was very productive in their main game together. Gipson had 5 catches for 77 yards on 6 catches when Siemian came in against the Falcons. The two have obviously spent a lot of time building chemistry on the practice field and it looks to be translating nicely to the real games. He is in position to be a slate breaker as he takes on a Commanders defense who is allowing the most yards and 2nd most TDs to WRs this year. At $4,800, Gipson is a can't miss value.

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins (vs Cowboys)

This is just here to remind that if Hill is back, he needs to be in your lineup. He will be the Dolphins best way to attack this defense and the cowboys have shown a propensity to give up the deep ball. If Hill misses, Waddle will once again be a must play.

Nico Collins, Texans (vs Browns)

The matchup and QB situation are very scary for Collins, but that will just lead to less exposure while his production should not dip too much. Collins is the obvious top target for the Texans and Noah Brown still produced a solid 18.2 FDP with Keenum last week so the QB play is not a huge concern. The Browns have been terrific vs WRs though so he will have a lot of work to do, but he will be given as much work as he can handle. If Collins is fully unleashed do not be surprised when he ends up with 15 targets which will be enough to produce a solid fantasy total even in a tough matchup. Collins is a good way to get different while not sacrificing production or upside.

DK Metcalf, Seahawks (@ Titans)

Metcalf has been a big play machine in recent weeks. He is averaging more than 20 yards per catch over his last 3 games. He now plays a Titans secondary who has struggled against WRs, allowing the 5th most yards to the position. Metcalf should be able to run free so whoever the Seahawks QB is this week should have an easy time finding him. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is also a strong play against this defense.

Calvin Ridley, Jaguars (@ Buccaneers)

The Jaguars WRs are dropping like flies and Ridley may be the last guy standing. His usage has been superb as result of these injuries as he has compiled 25 targets over the past 2 weeks alone. Now this increased usage has not led to an increase in production as he has just 92 yards over the past 2 weeks, but that is about to change. After playing the 2 best defenses against WRs, Ridley now plays one of the worst. The Buccaneers have allowed the 2nd most yards to the position so if Ridley continues to play this elite role, it can only result in elite production this week. Ridley is a MUST play.

Dontayvion Wicks, Packers (@ Panthers)

This is conditional endorsement as it all depends on the health of Christian Watson and Jayden Reed. If both are out which is expected at this point, then Wicks becomes the Play of the Day. Even with Jayden Reed in the lineup last week, Wicks was very productive with 6 catches for 97 yards, but if he is the last guy standing expect a Herculean effort. Now Wicks is also coming in with an injury designation, so make sure he is active before fully locking him into your lineup.

Tight Ends

Play of the Day: Trey McBride, Cardinals (@ Bears)

There has been a changing of the guards and there is a new king. McBride is the top fantasy tight end and will end up as the TE1 next season as long as the Cardinals still have a decent QB. McBride has 9 or more targets in 5 of his last 7 games and one of those misses was with Clayton Tune at QB. He is a lock for double digit FDP with a strong possibility of 15+. McBride will not let you down as long as he and Murray are healthy.

TJ Hockenson, Vikings (vs Lions)

Hock has taken a step back in this offense with Justin Jefferson back and Josh Dobbs no longer the QB, but I can never pass up a good revenge game opportunity. Hockenson has been trying to pass this game off as just another game, but we all know he wants to show out this week. The Lions are middle of the pack against TEs but Hockenson is not a middle of the pack TE. Hock has at least 6 targets in every game but one this year so his usage is unquestionable, but the value of his usage has been ticking up. After failing to get the ball down the field to open the season, Hockenson now has at least 10 YPC in 5 straight games. While his usage has dipped a bit, the production has not really dropped off.

David Njoku, Browns (@ Texans)

Njoku has been a beast with Flacco at QB. He has 20+ FDP in back to back weeks and do not expect that production to stop anytime soon. The Texans have allowed the 4th most yards to TEs this year so Njoku is in line for another dynamic line. It is time to chase points here since the uptick in production has come as a result of systemic change.

Jake Ferguson, Cowboys (@ Dolphins)

With 8 targets in 3 straight games, I think it is fair to say that Ferguson is the #2 target for the team now. In what is expected to be a shootout, getting a #2 target for just $6,000 is a terrific deal. Keep in mind this is a TE who leads the position in redzone usage and it is not even close as he has 5 more redzone targets than the next closest TE. With the Cowboys expected to score a lot this week, it is inevitable that Fergie scores at least once this week.

Defenses

Play of the Day: Colts D/ST (@ Falcons)

There is absolutely no reason to be afraid of Taylor Heinicke. The most average of defenses would be able to dominate him and this Falcons offense, but the Colts are not an average defense. They have a takeaway in every game this year and have averaged more than 4 sacks per game over their last 6 games. There is no D/ST that is more appealing than the Colts this week.

Other Plays: Jets D/ST (vs Commanders); Packers D/ST (@ Panthers); Browns D/ST (@ Texans) & Commanders D/ST (@ Jets)

Dream Team

QB: Justin Fields, Bears (vs Cardinals)

RB1: Jonathan Taylor, Colts (@ Falcons)

RB2: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers (vs Packers)

WR1: Calvin Ridley, Jaguars (@ Buccaneers)

WR2: Dontayvion Wicks, Packers (@ Panthers)

WR3: Xavier Gipson, Jets (vs Commanders)

TE: Trey McBride, Cardinals (@ Bears)

Flex: Rachaad White, Buccaneers (vs Jaguars)

D/ST: Colts (@ Falcons)

**DISCLAIMER: Remember, sports and fantasy are supposed to be fun. Please play responsibly.**