Slate Breaker: FD NFL DFS Week 15 (Sat)

Quarterbacks

Play of the Day: Russell Wilson, Broncos (@ Lions)

On a slate that completely lacks any truly elite QBs, Russell Wilson stands out. While not a stellar floor, Wilson bottoms out at a respectable 15 FDP as he only missed that line 3 times this year while scoring 14 in 2 of those 3 games. Wilson sports a floor that no one else even comes close to. This will not just be a floor game for Wilson though, he plays a Lions defense who has struggled against QBs all year long. They have allowed every competent QB they have faced this year to score at least 20 FDP so things are looking up this week for Wilson. He has also been running more, scoring at least 9.5 FDP with his legs in 2 of their last 3 games. Wilson looks to be locked into 20 FDP this week with 25+ potential which is elite production when compared to the other QBs on this slate.

Jared Goff, Lions (vs Broncos)

With the two headed monster in the Lions backfield, Goff has taken a backseat in this Lions offense. Well at least in the scoring department. After throwing for 1.70 TDs per game a year ago, that number has dipped down to 1.45 making Goff a very mediocre fantasy QB. He has topped 20 FDP just 3 times this year and has scored less than 15 in five games. Goff's production does balance out with an average of 17 FDP so there is some upside here with Goff. The Broncos are good against WRs but are still not great against QBs allowing a little over 17 FDPs to the position, but they have improved in recent weeks. The Broncos have not allowed a QB to score more than 18 FDP in 7 straight games and that includes games against Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes so there is a lot of risk attached to Goff this week.

Jake Browning, Bengals (vs Vikings)

I have to mention Browning here since he is averaging more than 25 FDP over his past 2 games. I am not sold on Browning though. Those 2 blow up games came against weaker pass defenses so it is not surprising he found success, but this week he gets a much tougher matchup. The Vikings have only allowed 3 QBs to score more than 16 FDP this year and those QBs were Mahomes, Hurts and Herbert so I do not expect Browning to find success this week. Browning does have all the talent around him to succeed this week though so you never know, he could find success.

Gardner Minshew, Colts (vs Steelers)

If you want 15 FDP at a discount, then Gardner is your guy. Gardner has only topped 20 FDP once all year, but he has consistently scored in the 10-20 FDP range, hitting that mark in 73% of his games. On a slate that lacks top end QB talent, Minshew is a great way to lock down some scoring and save cash to spend up elsewhere. 

Running Backs

Play of the Day: Zack Moss, Colts (vs Steelers)

Moss has disappointed in back to back weeks now, but we have to keep rolling with him. He continues to get elite usage with 32 carries for Moss and 3 carries for all other RBs over the past 2 games. Moss now gets a Steelers defense who is allowing more than 20 FDP per game this year so Moss has to find some success and with his price still discounted following disappointing weeks, he is an elite play on this slate.

Lions RBs (vs Broncos)

The Lions backfield continues to be a productive unit. David Montgomery is the rock for this backfield as he is basically a lock for 10+ FDP. He has scored 10+ in every game but one and he got injured in the one game he failed to reach that mark. He does have limited upside though with just 1 game over 20 FDP, so if you want 10-20 FDP then roll with Monty. If you want to shoot for the stars, roll with Gibbs. Gibbs has much less consistency than Montgomery. He has scored less than 10 FDP in 6 of his 11 games this year, but he scored 15+ in the other 5 so he is truly a boom or bust player. If he does boom, he is a tournament winner. The Broncos have allowed the most rushing yards and the 7th most receiving yards to RBs this year while allowing the 3rd most TDs to the position so one if not both of these guys will be very productive.

Javonte Williams, Broncos (@ Lions)

Williams continues to get elite usage, but his efficiency is still holding him back. He has not averaged more than 5 yards a carry in 6 straight games. Williams is a good way to lock up a safe floor of 8 points, but that would still be lackluster production for a player who is $7,000. Williams will likely need a TD to be worth your time, but he is always on the field in the redzone so he could easily find the endzone and cash in for fantasy owners. He is risky for his price so there are no guarantees attached to Williams.

Ty Chandler, Vikings (@ Bengals)

Chandler profiles identically to Williams, but you can get him for $1K less. Chandler will have elite usage in his first start of the year. Injured starter was basically a lock for 15+ opportunities in his starts, while ceding some work to backs like Chandler. Now that Chandler is the last back standing for Minnesota expect him to easily pass 20 opportunities. The big problem with the Vikings running game is their efficiency as they have struggled to find any room on the ground this year. He did average 7.3 YPC against Denver so he has shown potential, but he could only get 60 yards on 20 opportunities. Chandler is a worthy gamble as you get elite RB usage at just $6,000.

Wide Receivers

Play of the Day: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts (vs Steelers)

Pittman is averaging nearly 11 points per game and his usage in the offense is something that the other WRs on this slate can only dream about. The usage alone makes Pittman a play, but the matchup against a Steelers secondary who is allowing the 12th most yards to WRs this year, makes him an elite play as he should be able to easily score more than 15 FDP.

Justin Jefferson, Vikings (@ Bengals)

Jefferson is the top WR in the league so you can never fade him, but I have to admit, Nick Mullens scares me. Jefferson will likely still get 15 targets but it will be hard to be efficient if Mullens is not throwing the ball well. Jefferson has been known to be able to make a lot from a little so he could easily be the top WR on this slate, but he is very risky because I think he will likely come away with 8 catches for 60 yards.

Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals (vs Vikings)

I think Browning will get shut down by this Vikings defense, but the Vikings still struggle to match up against their opponents' top pass catcher. Before last week's offensive nightmare, the Vikings had allowed their opponent's top pass catcher to average 17.1 FDP and none of those receivers were close to Chase's talents. While it will be tough sledding for the Bengals offense as a whole, they will rely on Chase to move the ball which will lead to a very fruitful day for him.

Broncos WRs (@ Lions)

The Lions are the top matchup for WRs on this limited slate as they allow the 9th most FDP to the position. Coutrland Sutton is the obvious top WR in this offense with 60+ yards in 4 straight games. His yardage upside is a bit limited as he has topped out at 91 yards this year, but his redzone usage is ELITE. Sutton is a real weapon in the endzone as he is 2nd in the league in TDs and has scored in 10 of his 13 games this year. Sutton is a lock for 10+ FDP, but it is unlikely he will top 20 FDP. Jerry Jeudy's season has been perplexing as he has essentially become an afterthought in this offense. He has been efficient with his limited work though as he has 7 games with at least 50 yards, one less than leading receiver Sutton so if he gets action he can be very productive against this weaker Lions secondary.

Tight Ends

Play of the Day: Sam LaPorta, Lions (vs Broncos)

LaPorta is another boom or bust player. He has scored 6 or less FDP in three of his last six games, but has scored 15+ FDP in the other 3 games. He should easily boom this week as he plays a Broncos defense who cannot match up against TEs. The Broncos have allowed the 2nd most yards and TDs to TEs this year so expect LaPorta to be heavily involved in the game plan this week.

TJ Hockenson, Vikings (@ Bengals)

If you thought Sam LaPorta's matchup was good, Hockenson's is even better. The Bengals are allowing the most yards to TEs this year. I am not as high on Hockenson though. Nick Mullens limits his upside and Justin Jefferson's return will take a lot of work away. Hockenson should still score 10 FDP, but not much more than that. If you want a safe play at TE go with Hock, but if you want to win a tournament, roll with LaPorta.

Pat Freiermuth, Steelers (@ Colts)

The Muth is finally being utilized in this offense. After failing to garner more than 5 targets this season, he has hit that mark in 3 straight games following the firing of the Steelers' OC. Muth's involvement is not fluke so expect him to continue to take on a bigger and bigger role. Mitch Trubisky does lead a bit to be desired so Muth likely cannot compete with either of the top TEs on this slate, but if you want to get different and get off the chalk then he is your guy.

Defenses

Play of the Day: Vikings D/ST (@ Bengals)

Honestly, I could make a case for every D/ST to be selected here. It is the Vikings price that lands them here as the 2nd cheapest D/ST on this slate. Like it or not the vikings are a top 10 defense so they should easily be able to handle a backup QB even if he is surrounded by high end talent. The Vikings defense either has multiple sacks or takeaways in 10 straight games and has only allowed one team to score more than 21 points in their last 8 games. Overall though, you cannot go wrong with any defense on this slate except maybe the Broncos.

Dream Team

QB: Russell Wilson, Broncos (@ Lions)

RB1: Ty Chandler, Vikings (@ Bengals)

RB2: Zack Moss, Colts (vs Steelers)

WR1: Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals (vs Vikings)

WR2: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts (vs Steelers)

WR3: Jerry Jeudy, Broncos (@ Lions)

TE: Sam LaPorta, Lions (vs Broncos)

Flex: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions (vs Broncos)

D/ST: Vikings (@ Bengals)

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