Slate Breaker: FD NFL DFS Week 13

Quarterbacks

Play of the Day: CJ Stroud, Texans (vs Broncos)

Stroud has been one of the biggest storylines in the NFL for good reason. He has revived the Texans and is already looking like one of the NFL's next elite QBs. Stroud has proven to be a good option each and every week so of course he warrants fantasy consideration. The Broncos may seem like an easier matchup on paper after allowing the 11th most FDPs to QBs this year, but they have fixed a lot of their early season issues and are now a formidable defense which may lead some to fade Stroud. One Stroud trend that I do not think is getting enough attention is Stroud's ability to show out in front of the home crowd. Away from NRG, Stroud is averaging a modest 15.6 FDPs; but at home, Stroud is averaging almost 10 more FDPs with a 24.9 average at NRG. Stroud should be able to get some home cooking even against a tough Broncos defense.

Obvious Plays: Jalen Hurts, Eagles (vs 49ers) & Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (@ Commanders)

Solid Plays: Brock Purdy, 49ers (@ Eagles) & Bailey Zappe, Patriots (vs Chargers)

Purdy dropped a dud last week after a stellar month of football, but he is in a great position for a rebound performance. Purdy is playing the most important game of the regular season as he plays the conference leading Eagles. The Eagles are good up and down their roster, but it has been their secondary that has struggled the most this year. The Eagles have allowed the 2nd most FDPs to opposing QBs this year and they have one of the league's top run defenses so the 49ers only chance in this game will hinge on Purdy's arm. Purdy will have every chance to succeed and if he can step up to the moment, he will have a monster game. I am going out on a limb with this one, but I expect the Patriots offense to be completely different. Zappe is far less conservative than Mac Jones so expect the ball to be pushed down the field a lot this week, which can lead to a lot of turnovers but also a lot of production. He is playing a Chargers team who is very beatable through the air and will be able to score on offense so Zappe will be thrust into a high usage role from the get-go. Zappe does carry some risk, but he did average 15.4 FDPs as a starter last year so he should be able to deliver value at his discounted price.

Other Plays: Sam Howell, Commanders (vs Dolphins) & Russell Wilson, Broncos (@ Texans)

Fade of the Day: Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (vs Panthers)

Mayfield gets the Panthers treatment this week and he is not a good enough QB to overcome the tough matchup. The only part of this Panthers team that is even somewhat functional is their pass defense and it is much more than functional, it is superb. The Panthers are allowing the 2nd fewest passing yards and the least amount of rushing yards to QBs so a QB like Baker will not be able to find success this week especially since the Bucs will be able to run with Rachaad White with ease.

Other Fades: Mathew Stafford, Rams (vs Browns) & Will Levis, Titans (vs Colts)

Bust Alert: Kyler Murray, Cardinals (@ Steelers)

Rushing TDs has been saving Kyler's fantasy value with one in 3 straight games, but last week's game against the Rams scared me. Besides an early TD drive last week, the Cardinals got shut down for 3 and a half quarters and it was only garbage time that saved his fantasy day after he scored almost half of his points in the closing minutes of a blowout. The Steelers are a much better defense than the Rams and the D line will be able to routinely dismantle the Cardinals' pass protection so Kyler will not be able to get comfortable. You cannot completely fade Kyler because of his rushing abilities, but I find it far more likely that he will have a bust game rather than a boom game.

Running Backs

Play of the Day: Zack Moss, Colts (@ Titans)

Prices were set for this slate before the Jonathan Taylor news broke so Moss is a free square. He can fit in just about any lineup at $5,600 so he will be very chalky but it is for good reason. He averaged an insane 19.3 FDPs in his 5 games as the Colts lead back and scored at least 9 FDPs in every one of those games so Moss needs to be in your lineups regardless of whether it is a cash game or a tournament. 

Obvious Plays: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (@ Eagles) & Kyren Williams, Rams (vs Browns)

Solid Plays: Bijan Robinson, Falcons (@ Jets) & Rachaad White, Buccaneers (vs Panthers)

It is finally happening, Robinson is THE guy in the Falcons backfield. After seeing 20 or more opportunities just 2 times through the Falcons first 9 weeks, he has seen 20+ opportunities in back to back weeks and has been able to step up in his increased role as he averaged 21.5 FDPs over the past 2 weeks. He now gets a Jets defense whose only weakness is against RBs allowing the 5th most rushing yards and receiving yards per game to the position this year. This is a game that Robinson has to succeed in. Rachaad White has been one of the most puzzling fantasy options as he was terribly inefficient to start the year, but was still a major fantasy producer with nearly 13 FDPs per game this year. Well that inefficiency may be a thing of the past after he had his first 100 yard game of the season last week on just 15 carries. If White is able to be efficient once again he is as good of an option as you can find. He should be able to be efficient too as he plays a weak Panthers defense who allows the 3rd most FDPs per game to RBs this year. White is a must play this week.

Other Plays: Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots (vs Chargers) & Javonte Williams, Broncos (@ Texans)

Fade of the Day: D'Andre Swift, Eagles (vs 49ers)

After a sizzling start to the season, Swift has cooled off. He has less than 10 FDPs in 3 of his last 5 games and plays a top 49ers run defense. The 49ers have allowed the 2nd fewest rushing yards to RBs and have allowed just 6 TDs to the position this year. Swift will need a lot of luck to succeed this week and with a bunch of great options at various price points, Swift is not worth your time.

Other Fades: Panthers RBs (@ Buccaneers) & Texans RBs (vs Broncos)

Bust Alert: Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders (vs Dolphins)

There is no way the Dolphins are not leading by multiple scores for the majority of the game, right? Robinson has been far better than many expected he would be this year, but this is a week he will fail you. With the Commanders predicted to be heavy underdogs, the game script is favoring Antonio Gibson instead of Robinson so B-Rob is not a play this week.

Wide Receivers

Play of the Day: Chris Olave, Saints (vs Lions)

Olave is still listed as questionable since he has not passed through the concussion protocol yet, but he was able to log a full practice Friday and is on track to play. Olave is the only Saints starting WR who will be healthy this week with Thomas and Shaheed out so his already high usage should see a significant bump. The Lions are very beatable too, allowing the 6th most FDPs to WRs this year as well as the 3rd most TDs. The usage, game script and matchup are all very favorable for Olave this week.

Obvious Plays: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins (@ Commanders); Keenan Allen, Chargers (@ Patriots); Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions (@ Saints) & AJ Brown, Eagles (vs 49ers)

Solid Plays: 49ers WRs (@ Eagles); Colts WRs (@ Titans) & Greg Dortch, Cardinals (@ Steelers)

The Eagles have allowed the most FDPs to WRs since Week 7 and are beatable no matter where the opposing WR aligns with the most FDPs allowed to slot and wideouts over that span. The Eagles are going to be able to minimize CMC's impact so Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk will be necessary weapons this week as the only guys who will be able to consistently win against this tough Eagles defense. I prefer Deebo to Aiyuk thanks to his diverse production, but either could have a monster day against the Eagles. While the Eagles have recently been bad against WRs, the Titans have been bad against WRs all year. Michael Pittman has been dominating all year so he is a good option, but he is a bit pricey. It is teammate Josh Downs who is the far more intriguing option since he already burnt these Titans having his 2nd best game of the year against them with 97 yards the first time they met. The Colts want to get him more involved since he received 13 targets last week so if he gets similar usage against this Titans defense, expect a big day. I am still rolling with Dortch. Where else can you find a WR who is locked into 8+ targets at a price of just $5,200. The usage alone is enough to make Dortch a solid play, but he may be relied on even more this week with a tough Steelers D line on hand. Kyler will need to utilize Dortch as a dump off so expect a strong floor with appealing upside from Dortch.

Other Plays: Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins (@ Commanders); Adam Thielen, Panthers (@ Buccaneers) & Broncos WRs (@ Texans)

Fade of the Day: Drake London, Falcons (@ Jets)

London and this Falcons passing attack does not have a chance against this Jets secondary. This unit usually puts up low numbers, but now they play a Jets defense allowing the fewest yards and TDs to WRs this year. There is absolutely no reason to have London or any other Falcons pass catcher in your lineup this week.

Other Fades: Chris Godwin, Buccaneers (@ Panthers) & Elijah Moore, Browns (@ Rams)

Bust Alert: Garrett Wilson, Jets (vs Falcons)

Even with the QB change, Wilson saw another 10 targets so his usage remains elite. One concerning trend was Boyle's inability to pass down field as Wilson recorded his 3rd lowest yardage total of the season while catching 7 passes. Wilson is still a usage monster but his lack of downfield work makes him far less appealing.

Tight Ends

Play of the Day: Brevin Jordan, Texans (vs Broncos)

The Texans use their TEs a lot which has resulted in Dalton Schultz having multiple monster games, but he is out this week. Enter Brevin Jordan. Jordan has a proclivity to find the endzone with 4 career TDs despite starting just 5 games. He should be able to step right into that Schultz role and produce. He gets a great matchup to prove his worth as he plays a Broncos team who is allowing the most yards and TDs to TEs this year. Jordan jumps out as the top value on this slate.

Obvious Plays: George Kittle, 49ers (@ Eagles) & Sam LaPorta, Lions (@ Saints)

Solid Plays: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers (vs Cardinals) & Davis Njoku, Browns (@ Rams)

How can you not play Freiermuth after his monster game last week? I know he has not done anything in any other game this season, but this increase in production came as a result of change at OC. The Steelers OC obviously wants to get the ball to Freiermuth so do not expect this production to let up. With all the QB problems that the Browns have been experiencing, they have needed to simplify their offense which has led Njoku to get featured. He is averaging 11 targets over his last 3 games and that is usage that no other TE can compete with. Most of the targets are coming close to the line of scrimmage so his yardage totals have been lacking, but he has the highest floor of any TE on this slate.

Other Plays: Taysom Hill, Saints (vs Lions) & Logan Thomas, Commanders (vs Dolphins)

Fade of the Day: Tyler Higbee, Rams (vs Browns)

Do not chase the points here. If you had Higbee in your lineups last week, congrats, but do not expect another performance like that this week. He has only topped 50 yards twice all year and last week's scores were his first of the year. He now plays a Browns team who is allowing the fewest yards to TEs this year. There is no reason to have Higbee in any of your lineups.

Other Fades: Cade Otton, Buccaneers (vs Panthers) & Tyler Conklin, Jets (vs Falcons)

Bust Alert: Trey McBride, Cardinals (@ Steelers)

If you have read my recent columns, then you should know I am all over McBride. His price is starting to catch up with him, but he is still appropriately priced. It is the matchup that really worries me here. The Steelers have done a great job at limiting TEs, allowing the 8th fewest FDPs to the position in 2023. McBirde is also injured so he may be limited if he ends up suiting up. McBride's usage is elite so he should still be productive, but temper expectations a bit this week.

Defenses

Play of the Day: Rams D/ST (vs Browns)

What can we really expect from Joe Flacco and the Browns this week? The Rams D should dominate them this week and they are very affordable at just $3,700. Flacco started 4 games for the Jets last year and had 7 turnovers and was sacked 10 times last season. They should be able to easily score 10+ FDPs making them the most valuable D/ST on this slate.

Other Plays: Dolphins D/ST (@ Commanders); Buccaneers D/ST (vs Panthers); Chargers D/ST (@ Patriots); Browns D/ST (@ Rams) & Colts D/ST (@ Titans)

Dream Team

QB: CJ Stroud, Texans (vs Broncos)

RB1: Bijan Robinson, Falcons (@ Jets)

RB2: Zack Moss, Colts (@ Titans)

WR1: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins (@ Commanders)

WR2: Chris Olave, Saints (vs Lions)

WR3: Greg Dortch, Cardinals (@ Steelers)

TE: Brevin Jordan, Texans (vs Broncos)

Flex: Rachaad White, Buccaneers (vs Panthers)

D/ST: Rams D/ST (vs Browns)

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