Slate Breaker: FD CFB DFS Bowl Season (12/26)

Quarterbacks

Play of the Day: Jordan Maiava, UNLV (vs Kansas)

Maiava is the only QB on this slate that you can play with any confidence. He is an underclassman who has confirmed he will be returning to the program next year so we know he will be playing every snap of this game as long as it is competitive. He is not just a play based on his usage either as he has been terrific this year. Besides a rough showing in the Mountain West Championship game, Maiava has looked ready to face any challenge this year. He averaged a terrific 260 passing yards during regular season conference play and showed an ability to score, averaging nearly 2 TDs per game during that same timeframe leading the Rebels to be the top scoring offense in the Mountain West. He also rushes a bit which leads to an extra 2-4 FDP as a cherry on top. Maiava is basically a lock for 20 FDP and with no other QB on this slate offering any kind of concrete consistency, he is a must play.

Kansas QBs (vs UNLV)

If we knew who was going to be playing here, this would be an easy play. But with 2 legitimate options to start at QB, this is a very murky situation. Jalon Daniels is a terrific player, but he has been held back by health issues and has not played since Week 4. Jason Bean is the backup and has been productive during his time as the starter with multiple 30+ FDP games. It looks way more likely Bean will be the starter at this point, but this is a team that offers little clarity when it comes to their injury situations as they have offered misleading information when it comes to starters multiple times this year. If you are okay with these risks, then Jason Bean is a great play. He has shown the ability to carry the team with both his legs and arm, but it is his rushing potential that intrigues me this week. UNLV has struggled to contain rushing QBs in recent weeks allowing 5 rushing TDs to the position in the past 4 games. UNLV and Kansas could end up a very high scoring match as they feature 2 of the top offenses on the slate.

TJ Finley, Texas State (vs Rice)

TJ Finley has been the most productive QB on this slate, but a lot of that production has been a result of playing in the Sun Belt where over half of the conference allows more than 28 PPG. Finley struggled outside of conference play scoring less than 20 FDP in 2 of the 3 games so Rice may present one of his tougher matchups for Finley this season. Finley simply cannot be ignored even with a tougher matchup. He is averaging nearly 29 FDP over his last 3 full games, but I have to make the distinction of full games because he also did get benched during that same span. If you are looking for a high risk, high reward guy then roll with Finley.


Running Backs

Play of the Day: Ismail Mahdi, Texas State (vs Rice)

This slate is full of terrific options at the RB position, but Mahdi stands out. He is an underclassman and while there has not been any news on his 2024 plans, no news is good news. More importantly, he is a true workhorse back. He is averaging more than 20 carries per game over the past 9 games while also getting some work in the passing game. With strong usage, Mahdi should dominate a Rice run defense who allowed more than 150 yards on the ground and deliver great value.

Kansas RBs (vs UNLV)

If I knew Devin Neal was playing, I would be all in on him. But he is one of the top RBs in the nation and is just finishing his junior year so he is likely NFL bound so I think he misses this game. If Neal misses this game, Daniel Hishaw is a must play. The issue is with this Kansas football program though, they keep everything close to the vest and with this being the last game of the day, there will not be any pivot options if contradictory news comes out. The Kansas running game is very appealing but with all the uncertainty, there is a lot of risk attached to all of these guys.

Dean Connors, Rice (vs Texas State)

Connors has been a fantastic dual threat RB. He is the leading rusher for Rice while also recording multiple catches in every except for 2 this year. Texas State allows a lot of points too so getting such a prominent player in this offense will lead to a bountiful day. Connors is a very safe play but his ceiling is not as strong as other options on this slate.

Jordan Nubin, Minnesota (vs Bowling Green)

I am excited to see what Nubin will be able to do now that he does not have to face the top run defenses in the Big 10. The one game he was not facing a top run defense, he rushed for over 200 yards and multiple TDs. Nubin has taken over this backfield averaging nearly 24 carries per game since taking over the role 5 games ago. His production has been lacking in recent weeks, but that was against some great run defenses. Minnesota has also lost their starting QB to the portal so they will only become more run heavy in this bowl game. I am expecting great things from Nubin to close out the season.


Wide Receivers

Play of the Day: Ricky White, UNLV (vs Kansas)

White is returning to UNLV for another year so there should be absolutely no worries about his availability and usage. And to put it simply, those were the only concerns when it came to a player like White. He is averaging 107 receiving yards per game and has scored in over half of his games. White is a lock for 15+ FDP with unrivaled upside.

Luke McCaffrey, Rice (vs Texas State)

I do not have a solid read on LMC's availability, but if it is confirmed he is a full go this week, he is a must play. He is basically half of this Rice offense and that will translate to a lot of production against this Texas State defense. 

Kole Wilson, Texas State (vs Rice)

The Texas State offense is the best offense on this slate for fantasy purposes. They have plenty of pass catching options, but Wilson looks to be the most concrete pick. He does not have the injury concerns attached to Joey Hobert and has been locked into a sizable role with or without Hobert, recording 60+ yards in 7 games and scoring 8 times this year. Wilson is a great option even if Hobert plays since he offers a very safe floor.

Harold Fannin Jr., Bowling Green (vs Minnesota)

With injuries and transfer departures in the backfield, Fannin is going to be this entire offense on Tuesday. He was already carrying a heavy load, recording at least 89 receiving yards in 4 straight games. With uncertainty at RB, he will probably end up with at least 5 rushes. If Bowling Green scores a TD, it will most likely be Fannin. Fannin offers security and upside so get him in your lineup.

Boden Groen, Rice (vs Texas State)

It is no coincidence that when AJ Padgett took over as Rice's QB, Groen's usage immediately shot up. He has the 2nd most targets on the team over the past 2 weeks since Padgett has been throwing the ball for Rice and more importantly he has been looked to often in the redzone scoring twice over the past 2 games. Groen is a solid value if LMC plays, but if he misses, he could be the top pass catcher for Rice and end up being the top value on this slate.


Dream Team

QB: TJ Finley, Texas State (vs Rice)

RB1: Ismail Mahdi, Texas State (vs Rice)

RB2: Jordan Nubin, Minnesota (vs Bowling Green)

WR1: Ricky White, UNLV (vs Kansas)

WR2: Kole Wilson, Texas State (vs Rice)

WR3: Harold Fannin Jr., Bowling Green (vs Minnesota)

Flex: Daniel Hishaw Jr., Kansas (vs UNLV)


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