Slate Breaker: FD NFL DFS Week 9

Quarterbacks

Play of the Day: Jaren Hall, Vikings (@ Falcons)

I know, I know. This is a huge gamble. But no team has passed more this year than the Minnesota Vikings and while Hall is not Kirk Cousins, The Vikings will not completely flip their offense upside down. Especially since the Vikings have struggled to run the ball all year long, rushing for the 2nd worst yards per game mark. Hall will not score 30+ or even 25+ but I like his chances of hitting 15 points and that will be enough to leave you satisfied since his price is a mere $6,300.

Obvious Plays: Jalen Hurts, Eagles (vs Cowboys)

Solid Plays: Dak Prescott, Cowboys (@ Eagles) & Sam Howell, Commanders (@ Patriots)

Dak is looking like he may be returning to vintage Dak form. He has 24+ FD points in back to back games and has passed for at least 249 yards in 5 of his last 6 games with the only subpar gaming coming against a tough 49er defense. Dak will have every opportunity to shine again this week playing an Eagle team who will score a lot of points but has been vulnerable to opposing QBs. With the Eagles expected to win this game, Dak will have a favorable game script and this Eagles defense just allowed Sam Howell to score more than 30 FD points so expect a solid day from Dak. Now that Kirk is out for the year, the aforementioned Sam Howell will soon be the league leader in pass attempts. That kind of usage alone is enough to make him a solid fantasy option in most weeks. And it is not just empty usage either, he is sixth in the NFL in passing yards with 268 yard per game. Howell plays a Patriots team who is fairly solid against the run, ranking in the top 10 but is beatable through the air allowing the 19th most passing yards in the NFL. With great usage and a decent matchup, Howell is a great play especially with a price of just $7,400.

Other Plays: Lamar Jackson, Ravens (vs Seahawks) & Derek Carr, Saints (vs Bears)

Fade of the Day: Taylor Heinicke, Falcons (vs Vikings)

After being a fairly decent player with the Commanders last year leading them to a winning record, Heinicke gets his shot to reinvigorate this Falcon offense. I would not be quick to jump on the Heinicke bandwagon though. His winning record came from a strong Commander defense as he offered a mere 13 FD ppg a year ago as the Commanders starter. He gets a tough task against a Vikings defense who is getting better week by week and they will be blitzing Heinicke a lot so expect some turnovers from him. Heinicke's price is too high and his matchup is too tough to put him in your lineup this week,

Other Fades: Tyson Bagent, Bears (@ Saints) & Gardner Minshew, Colts (@ Panthers)

Bust Alert: Deshaun Watson, Browns (vs Cardinals)

I just do not know how you can put Watson in your lineup with any confidence. Yes this matchup is very, very appealing, but is Watson healthy enough to do anything more than hand the ball off and pass 10 yards or less down the field. The Browns should be able to find success on the ground in this one so I expect Watson's usage to be limited. Watson's price and upside are very tantalizing though so I cannot completely fade him, but my expectations are limited.

Running Backs

Play of the Day: Saquon Barkley, Giants (@ Raiders)

Barkley has disappointed a bit this year compared to his resurgent 2022 campaign, but he has still delivered solid value. He has scored 11+ FD points in his last 4 games, but he has lacked the upside that has made him an elite fantasy RB in years past. He has only scored 20+ FD points once this year, but that is soon to change. He plays a Raider team that has gotten obliterated on the ground in recent weeks. They have allowed more than 27 FD points to opposing RBs in back to back weeks and that was against RBs like Jahmyr Gibbs and D'Onta Foreman so a RB of Saquon's talents should thrive in a matchup like this.

Obvious Starts: Alvin Kamara, Saints (vs Bears)

Solid Plays: Jonathan Taylor, Colts (@ Panthers); Josh Jacobs, Raiders (vs Giants) & Darrell Henderson, Rams (@ Packers)

Jonathan Taylor should be in the obvious plays section this week, but I put him here just to point out that last week was the first time that Taylor led the Colts backfield in snaps so his production is about to take off especially with a game against the Panthers on tap. Josh Jacobs is not going to lead the league in rushing again this year, but he still is the main guy in this Raider offense handling 15+ opportunities in every game this year. It is his passing game involvement that really intrigues me this week. In Aidan O'Connell's one start this year, Josh Jacobs had 11 targets!!! Giants are bad against the run so Jacobs will be good regardless of how involved he is in the passing game, but if he gets passing game usage that is anywhere close to his first game with AOC, he is an elite fantasy option. With Matt Stafford out or limited, Henderson will be heavily relied upon in this offense as both a runner and passer so he is a great value against a Packer defense that allows the 6th most FD ppg to opposing backs this year.

Other Plays: Browns RBs (vs Cardinals); Chuba Hubbard, Panthers (vs Colts) & Devin Singletary, Texans (vs Buccaneers)

Fade of the Day: Rachaad White, Buccaneers (@ Texans)

Even with a solid matchup against a weak Texans run defense, White will not be anywhere near my lineup. He continues to be wildly inefficient so the plus matchup against the Texans will not help him. The more concerning trend is the emergence of Chase Edmonds. In his first game of the season, Edmonds saw a 12% snap share so that should only increase as he gets settled into this offense. Edmonds is a great receiver out of the backfield so he will steal a lot of that valuable receiving work away from White which will destroy his floor and ceiling making him a horrible value at $6,900.

Other Fades: D'Onta Foreman, Bears (@ Saints) & Alexander Mattison, Vikings (@ Falcons)

Bust Alert: D'Andre Swift, Eagles (vs Cowboys)

The Cowboys have only allowed one back to run for more than 70 yards all year and that includes limiting backs like CMC and Ekeler. This Cowboys run defense is no joke so Swift will have some tough sledding in store for him this week. The only thing that can redeem Swift's fantasy day is his receiving work. He has 4 or more targets in weeks 4-6 but has failed to garner 4 targets in either of his last 2 games. If Swift gets involved in the passing game again he could be a solid play, but if he does not he will have a disappointing day. 

Wide Receivers

Play of the Day: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys (@ Eagles)

Tony Pollard has not been great in recent weeks so the team has had to turn their offense over to Lamb and the results have been great. Lamb has recorded 115+ yards in back to back games and that production should not slow down this week since he is playing an Eagles team that has been weak against receivers lately. The Eagles have allowed 6 receivers to record 80+ yards in their last 5 games so Lamb should have no issues producing this week.

Obvious Plays: AJ Brown, Eagles (vs Cowboys)

Solid Plays: Adam Thielen, Panthers (vs Colts); DK Metcalf, Seahawks (@ Ravens) & Demario Douglas, Patriots (vs Commanders)

Thielen now has 70+ yards in 5 straight games and that production will not be slowing down anytime soon. The Panthers are going to lose most of their games so Thielen will continue to benefit from a negative game script and garbage time. The Colts have also struggled against WRs so Thielen should easily produce 15+ points this week. DK Metcalf did not see more than 8 targets in his first 4 games, but the Seahawks have realized that is not a winning formula so they have made him the focal point of their offense in recent weeks. He had 9 targets two weeks ago and 14 targets last week so expect solid production from Metcalf with the increased usage. Demario Douglas is finally establishing himself in this Patriot offense following all the offseason hype. He had 6 targets 2 weeks ago and 7 last week and his usage is about to see an even bigger bump with Bourne out for the year. The Commanders have not been able to stop WRs this year allowing career games to DJ Moore, AJ Brown and Drake London so Douglas is in line for his best game of his young career. 

Other Plays: Chris Olave, Saints (vs Bears); Josh Downs, Colts (@ Panthers) & Zay Flowers, Ravens (vs Seahawks)

Fade of the Day: Jakobi Meyers, Raiders (vs Giants)

Meyers has 7 or more targets in 5 of his 7 games this year, but one of those games he did not reach that mark was with Aidan O'Connell in at QB. He saw just 4 targets that game which he turned into 33 yards. At $7,000, that kind of production just will not cut it. With AOC at QB, the offense will be simplified which means most of the targets will go to Adams or Jacobs so leave Meyers out of your lineups. 

Other Fades: Marquise Brown, Cardinals (@ Browns) & Christian Watson, Packers (vs Rams)

Bust Alert: Amari Cooper, Browns (vs Cardinals)

This should really be titled boom or bust alert. If Watson is healthy and this offense clicks, Cooper will have a monster game. But like I said, I have no confidence that Watson is actually healthy and will be able to throw the ball more than 10 yards. The Cardinals secondary is suspect so Cooper could deliver solid value, but Watson will likely hold him back.

Tight Ends

Start of the Day: Trey McBride, Cardinals (@ Browns)

McBride stepped into the TE1 role with ease. In his one game as the team's top TE, McBride delivered 10 catches for 95 yards and a TD on 14 targets. Those are Travis Kelce numbers. The Cardinals love passing to their tight ends so do not expect this usage to drop much. The possibility of a rookie QB leading this Cardinals offense does not even scare me as they will utilize McBride even more as a safety blanket to ease his debut.

Obvious Plays: Mark Andrews, Ravens (vs Seahawks) & TJ Hockenson, Vikings (@ Falcons)

Solid Plays: Kyle Pitts, Falcons (vs Vikings) & David Njoku, Browns (vs Cardinals)

With Drake London out this week, Pitts may be the guy in this offense. The Vikings are a good run defense so the Falcons will be forced to pass the ball. With the increase in passing this week, Pitts will be the biggest benefactor as the team's top target this week. Even with concerns about Watson, Njoku is a great play. Most of Njoku's work comes close to the line of scrimmage so even if Watson lacks his usual arm strength, Njoku will deliver solid value. He has 7 or more targets in 3 of his last 4 games which is high end usage for a tight end.

Fade of the Day: Dalton Shultz, Texans (vs Buccaneers)

Shultz is far too inconsistent to have him in your lineups. He has 3 games of less than 10 yards which is an absolute lineup killer. With no real floor, I do not want Shultz in any of my lineups.

Other Fades: Hunter Henry, Patriots (vs Commanders) & Tyler Higbee, Rams (@ Packers)

Bust Alert: Dallas Goedert, Eagles (vs Cowboys)

The Cowboys are too scary for me. They have a solid linebacker corps and good safeties so they should be able to handle Goedert in this one. Goedert is in an offense where he could deliver any week regardless of opponent because the Eagles are so explosive, but I just think there are better options for cheaper on this slate. 

Defenses

Play of the Day: Saints D/ST (vs Bears)

The Saints have multiple sacks or a turnover in every game this year and this trend should only continue against a weak Bears offense. The Bears will likely still be rolling out Tyson Bagent who has multiple turnovers in two of his 3 career games. Saints are as safe as a defense gets on this slate. 

Other Plays: Browns D/ST (vs Cardinals); Giants D/ST (@ Raiders); Colts D/ST (@ Panthers); Vikings D/ST (@ Falcons) & Rams D/ST (@ Packers)

Dream Team

QB: Jaren Hall, Vikings (@ Falcons)

RB1: Saquon Barkley, Giants (@ Raiders)

RB2: Jonathan Taylor, Colts (@ Panthers)

WR1: AJ Brown, Eagles (vs Cowboys)

WR2: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys (@ Eagles )

WR3: Demario Douglas, Patriots (vs Commanders)

TE: Trey McBride, Cardinals (@ Browns)

Flex: Devin Singletary. Texans (vs Buccaneers)

D/ST: Rams (@ Packers)

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