Slate Breaker: FD NFL DFS Week 12 (Thurs)

Quarterbacks

Play of the Day: Jordan Love, Packers (@ Lions)

To start the season, the Lions defense was great against opposing QBs, but they have been looking like the 2022 Lions defense lately, allowing anybody and everybody to succeed. The Lions defense has allowed their opponent's QB to score 20+ in 3 of their last 4 games with the only QB to not score 20 being Jimmy G. I am not in love with Love as a fantasy option in most weeks, but he will succeed against this Detroit defense. Add in that the Packers' backfield is very banged up with Aaron Jones already ruled out and AJ Dillon listed as questionable after not logging a single full practice all week. Love will be heavily relied upon so with heavy usage, Love is a terrific value as the second cheapest QB on this slate.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys (vs Commanders)

How can you fade Dak right now? He has been incredibly hot, scoring multiple TDs in 5 straight games. He is playing a Commanders secondary that has been flat out bad. They just allowed Tommy DeVito to pass for 3 TDs and nearly 250 yards. Tommy DeVito! This is nothing new either with their opponent's QB scoring 20+ in 8 of their last 10 QBs and the only QBs to fail to hit that mark are Mac Jones and Desmond Ridder, 2 QBs who have been benched this year, so expect a very strong week from Dak.

Brock Purdy, 49ers (@ Seahawks)

Now that the 49ers offense is fully healthy again, Brock is back to being a serious producer. In the 3 weeks where Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel were hurt, Purdy averaged just 14.9 FD points, but if you throw out that 3 game stretch, Purdy has scored 20+ FD points in 5 straight games. The Seahawks are very beatable too, allowing the 12th most passing yards per game this year so expect another strong week of production from Purdy.

Running Backs

Play of the Day: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (@ Seahawks)

I do not see how you could build a lineup without CMC. He has scored 17+ FD points in every game except 2 this year and still scored 12+ in those games so CMC is too good to not play on this limited slate. And the Seahawks have allowed the 6th most FD points per game to RBs without even playing CMC yet so it is safe to assume CMC will easily eclipse the 20 FD point mark.

Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery, Lions (vs Packers)

Man oh man I do not know who to pick here. One of these Lions RBs will have a great game, I guarantee it, but which one? Montgomery destroyed this Packers defense for 141 yards, 3 TDs and 33.1 FD points when they first met, but that was when it was the Montgomery show. Gibbs has now claimed a much bigger stake of the action as he has more snaps and touches in each of the past two games since Montgomery has returned from injury. Montgomery is more likely to get the goal line work, while Gibbs will get most if not all of the receiving work. Either and potentially both of these guys could be very productive so make sure you have them in your lineups.

Tony Pollard, Cowboys (vs Commanders)

I still do not know if I can play Pollard to be honest, but the Commanders run defense like their secondary, is just bad. I do have to acknowledge off the top that I do prefer the Cowboys passing game over their running game, but they will still find success on the ground. The Commanders have allowed their opponent's RB to score a TD in 5 straight games so Pollard likely will not even need big yardage totals to be productive. Pollard definitely does scare me as an option thanks to his inefficiency, but I like his chances of recording 70 total yards and a TD so he is a viable option behind the top options ahead of him here.

AJ Dillon, Packers (@ Lions)

I do not have nice things to say about Dillon and this Packers running game, but if he is active, his usage alone warrants fantasy consideration. He will still likely leave you disappointed, but he will likely get 20+ touches which is hard to fade no matter how difficult the matchup is.

Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks (vs 49ers)

With Kenneth Walker out, Charbonnet will be thrown right into a feature role. The matchup does suck and the Seahawks have been inefficient with their running game, but his usage will be elite. I do not expect too much out of Charbonnet, but he could definitely have a surprisingly strong line with how much the ball will be in his hands.

Wide Receivers

Play of the Day: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys (vs Commanders)

Everything I said about CMC applies to Lamb. He is an elite option because of the role he has been playing over the past month and change, but he also gets a dream matchup. The Commanders are the worst defense against WRs and have allowed career days to multiple WRs already this year. I am already penciling in 150 yards and a TD for Lamb. There is just no way I am building a lineup without Lamb this week. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions (vs Packers)

If CeeDee Lamb was not on this slate playing the Commanders, I would be in love with ARSB this week. ARSB has been wildly consistent with 11+ FD points in every game this year and has averaged over 17 FD points. He does not nearly have the upside that CeeDee has, but there is no chance he will leave you disappointed.

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers (@ Seahawks)

Aiyuk does not get the usage that ARSB or Lamb gets, but he is a serious big play threat. Aiyuk has an incredible 19.3 yards per catch which is first among WRs with 50+ targets. Aiyuk may leave you disappointed if the 49ers are able to cruise through this game with just their running game, but if he gets 5+ targets he will be very productive.

Seahawks WRs vs 49ers

The only chance this Seahawks offense has against the 49ers is through the air. The Seahawks have 3 WRs who are legitimate DFS options. DK Metcalf is the obvious top WR in this offense and should be the leader in targets, catches and yards in any given week. Tyler Lockett has been a fixture in this offense for nearly a decade now, but he has become more of a chain mover this year so his fantasy appeal is not as high as it has been in years past. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been emerging over the past 2 months which has really cut into Lockett's usage. JSN now has 40+ yards or a TD in 6 straight game which is valuable production for a player priced just $5,400. I like JSN, Metcalf and Lockett in that order, but they should all be involved this week since the Seahawks will struggle to move the ball on the ground.

Romeo Doubs & Jayden Reed, Packers (@ Lions)

If you are going to play Jordan Love this week, you need one of these guys in your lineup. Doubs has been the bigger fantasy producer this year as he is 3rd in the NFL in receiving TDs, but his yardage has been lacking all year as he is averaging less than 40 yards per game. If you want more stable production then roll with Jayden Reed. He is a serious big play threat and has been getting more and more work in this offense with 5+ targets in 3 of his last 4 games. Doubs has by far the highest upside thanks to his TD scoring prowess, but he has only scored more than 6 FD points once in the games he has failed to score a TD. 

Tight Ends

Play of the Day: Tucker Kraft, Packers (@ Lions)

At a price of just $4,300, Kraft may be the top value on this slate. He is going to be thrusted into a major role with Luke Musgrave being placed on the IR. Kraft will not only take over Musgrave's role but he will take on a bigger role since the Packers will likely only trust Kraft in the passing game with Josiah Deguara also out or limited. Kraft's usage will be bananas for someone who is almost the bare minimum price.

George Kittle, 49ers (@ Seahawks) & Sam LaPorta, Lions (vs Packers)

Both these guys will be heavily involved in their offense, but they are a bit expensive for my lineup builds. I cannot see a way to fit these guys in my lineup with both CMC and CeeDee in my lineups, but both of these guys will be productive. I like both of these guys, but I will not have a lot of exposure. 

Logan Thomas, Commanders (@ Cowboys)

Thomas looks like a great value at $5,200. It will be hard to find another player who is locked into 5+ targets at this price. He will likely be even more involved in this offense this week as a necessary safety blanket with a vicious Cowboys pass rush terrorizing Sam Howell all game long. He has a decent floor for such a cheap player with 5+ FD points in every game, but one this year.

Defenses

Play of the Day: 49ers D/ST (@ Seahawks)

Geno Smith stands no chance against this 49ers pass rush. If the Cowboys and the 49ers were the same price I would still lean towards the 49ers, but you can get them for $500 less than the Cowboys. There are other decent options on this limited slate, but the 49ers D/ST is the only one I can confidently say will score at 8 FD points this week.

Other Plays: Cowboys D/ST (vs Commanders); Lions D/ST (vs Packers) & Packers D/ST (@ Lions)

Dream Team

QB: Jordan Love, Packers (@ Lions)

RB1: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (@ Seahawks)

RB2: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions (vs Packers)

WR1: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys (vs Commanders)

WR2: Jayden Reed, Packers (@ Lions)

WR3: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks (vs 49ers)

TE: Tucker Kraft, Packers (@ Lions)

Flex: Logan Thomas, Commanders (@ Cowboys)

D/ST: 49ers (@ Seahawks)

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