Slate Breaker: FD NFL DFS Week 10

Quarterbacks

Play of the Day: Sam Howell, Commanders (@ Seahawks)

The Seahawks look like a solid pass defense on paper, but that is all a facade. The solid numbers are a result of facing QBs like PJ Walker, Josh Dobbs and Daniel Jones. But this team's pass defense deficiencies were on full display when they allowed Mathew Stafford, Jared Goff and Andy Dalton all to pass for more than 320 yards. Enter Sam Howell. No one has thrown more passes this year than Howell having thrown 40+ passes in 5 of his last 6 games. Howell has been fairly solid regardless of matchup, but with a great matchup like this, expect a monster game from the Commander QB. 

Obvious Plays: N/A

Solid Plays: Jared Goff, Lions (@ Chargers) & Geno Smith, Seahawks (vs Commanders)

Jared Goff has been a solid passer this season averaging the 5th most yards per game, but he has not been a solid fantasy contributor due to his inability to consistently score. Goff only has multiple scores in 3 of his last 8 games and whether he scores multiple TDs seems to be a good indicator if he is fantasy viable or not. In the 3 games he scored multiple TDs he scored 20+ FD points, but in the games he did not score multiple TDs, he failed to reach the 20 point threshold. I like Goff chances to score multiple TDs this week in a game against the Chargers which is expected to be very high scoring so if Lions are to keep pace, Goff will need to have a game. Geno Smith has looked a lot like pre-2022 Geno Smith. Geno Smith has only scored more than 20 FD points once all year, but if there is any week for it to happen again, it is this week. With a matchup against a Commander  defense that just traded away the entire pass rush arsenal and a secondary who cannot guard anyone, Smith has to succeed in this one or he may be out of a job. This Commanders defense just made the Patriots offense look competent so expect Geno Smith to produce this week.

Other Plays: CJ Stroud, Texans (@ Bengals) & Kyler Murray, Cardinals (vs Falcons)

Fade of the Day: Josh Dobbs, Vikings (vs Saints)

After an electric comeback win, Dobbs has been glistening brighter than usual. But if you watched that game, you would have seen that performance had as much to do with the Falcons defense as it did with Josh Dobbs. Dobbs was decent, but the Falcons defense was bad. The Saints rally to the ball better than most teams so expect Dobbs' escapability to be severely limited making him produce as just a passer. The Saints have been good against the pass all year, only allowing one QB to pass for more than 250 yards all year, so expect Dobbs to take a big step back in his second game as a Viking.

Other Fades: Jordan Love, Packers (@ Steelers) & Derek Carr, Saints (@ Vikings)

Bust Alert: Lamar Jackson, Ravens (vs Browns)

The Browns defense is just good, especially their D line. Jackson has needed a strong rushing line in order to deliver worthwhile fantasy games, but with a strong Browns line this week, Jackson's running could be severely limited. The Browns D line is great against both the run and the pass so Jackson could end being severely handicapped this week. In games where Jackson failed to score 9 points with his rushing alone he failed to score 20+ FD points in every game but one, but scored 28+ every time he hit that rushing mark. Jackson is far from a guarantee this week.

Running Backs

Play of the Day: Tony Pollard, Cowboys (vs Giants)

Pollard has been a huge disappointment lately only scoring 10+ FD points once over his last 5 games, but this has to be the week he gets back on track. The Giants continue to get destroyed on the ground allowing 20+ points to Josh Jacobs last week. The Giants have allowed the 3rd most rushing yards and TDs to RBs this year so if Pollard does not come away from this game with a monster line, it is time to worry. Pollard scored 21.2 in week 1 against these Giants so expect another strong performance. 

Obvious Plays: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (@ Jaguars); Austin Ekeler, Chargers (vs Lions); Alvin Kamara, Saints (@ Vikings) & Travis Etienne Jr., Jaguars (vs 49ers)

Solid Plays: Bijan Robinson, Falcons (@ Cardinals) & Aaron Jones, Packers (@ Steelers)

It has not been the rookie campaign that many of us expected for Robinson as he continues to play a lesser role in this offense thanks to Tyler Allgeier. He continues to get 10+ carries and around 5 targets though so if the matchup lines up, he can have an explosive game. The Cardinals are that ideal matchup for Bijan. The Cardinals are allowing the 4th most yards and TDs to RBs this year so Robinson should be able to find success this week. Aaron Jones saw a full workload for the first time all year last week and delivered a solid 15.9 FD points. The Packers playing with the lead definitely helped Jones' fantasy production so we will likely need another easy Packers win to see Jones get 25+ touches. If Jones is locked into 20+ opportunities again, then he is a must play at $6,800, but that is far from a guarantee so he is a bit of a gamble with huge upside.

Other Plays: Joe Mixon, Bengals (vs Texans) & Jaylen Warren, Steelers (vs Packers)

Fade of the Day: Saquon Barkley, Giants (@ Cowboys)

This Giants offense is a nightmare. Tommy DeVito is their QB and the interior O line cannot stop anyone. I just do not see how Barkley can provide enough juice in this offense to deliver on this $7,400 price regardless of how involved he is in the passing game. He also gets a Cowboys D who has been great at limited opposing RBs all year. There is no reason to have Barkley in any of your lineups.

Other Fades: Browns RBs (@ Ravens) & Texans RBs (@ Bengals)

Bust Alert: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions (@ Chargers)

Gibbs has been a revelation in recent weeks, but his string of elite production looks to be coming to an end. David Montgomery is returning to action which means Gibbs is returning to RB purgatory. Gibbs is one of the most electric backs in football but he needs a heavy workload to deliver on this $8,200 price. Gibbs is very dynamic so he could deliver solid value on limited touches, but until he cements himself as the Lions lead back, he is a risky play.

Wide Receivers

Play of the Day: DK Metcalf, Seahawks (vs Commanders)

Metcalf remains inconsistent. After having 9+ targets in back to back weeks, Metcalf only saw 4 looks in Week 9. What is even more concerning is the game was a blowout from the first quarter so Metcalf should have seen a lot of work, but this Seahawks offense continues to look like they have no real plans on game day. This is a week where Metcalf has to produce though. The Commanders are now one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL with no real pass rush and backup caliber defensive backs so Geno should have enough time this week to find a wide open DK all game long. I cannot outright endorse DK due to his inconsistent usage, but a Seahawks WR will be the top scoring WR this week and DK is the most likely person to be that guy.

Obvious Plays: Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals (vs Texans); CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys (vs Giants) & Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions (@ Chargers)

Solid Plays: Commanders WRs (@ Seahawks); DeAndre Hopkins, Titans (@ Buccaneers) & Cardinals WRs (vs Falcons)

I expect this Commanders Seahawks game to be the highest scoring game of the slate so there will be plenty of fantasy production to utilize in this matchup. Terry McLaurin is a great start regardless of the Commanders injury situation and he should be able to find space with ease this week. But if Curtis Samuels is out again, Jahan Dotson is one of my favorite plays of the week. Dotson has seen 8+ targets in each of his last 3 games when Samuel has been out or limited. These are no run of mill targets as Dotson has an aDOT of 9.5 so there is a lot of fantasy value to be extracted from those targets. The Commanders WRs will be big difference makers this week. DeAndre Hopkins was a bit disappointing last week recording just 60 yards, but he still saw 11 targets! Now he is playing a Buccaneers team who allowed 3 different Texans pass catchers to rack up more than 100 yards last week. With high end usage and a super easy matchup, Hopkins has to deliver this week. Kyler is back and the Cardinals WRs are saved. Obviously Marquise Brown is the biggest benefactor as the team's target leader and now he will be able to get a bunch more targets further down the field and may actually be able to top 100 receiving yards in a game. Rondale Moore could end up an elite value with Kyler at QB. Moore saw 8+ targets in 4 of his 6 games with Murray last year and delivered 9 FD points per game during those 6 games. At just $4,700, Moore is terrific value.

Other Plays: Falcons WRs (@ Cardinals); Packers WRs (@ Steelers) & Jalin Hyatt, Giants (@ Cowboys)

Fade of the Day: Zay Flowers, Ravens (vs Browns)

Flowers' role has been diminishing a bit lately. He only has more than 50 yards once in the past 4 weeks and it will not get any easier this week as he plays the Browns. The Browns have allowed the 3rd least yards to WRs this year and allowed the fewest catches so Flowers will be smothered all game long this week. It is best to look elsewhere as both Flowers' ceiling and floor are severely limited. 

Other Fades: Saints WRs (@ Vikings) & Nico Collins, Texans (@ Bengals)

Bust Alert: Jordan Addison, Vikings (vs Saints)

Addison remains the WR1 with Justin Jefferson still out, but this Vikings passing game remains in rough shape. Dobbs is not good enough to sustain solid WR fantasy production. While with the Cardinals, no receiver topped 100 yards in any of his games as the QB. Addison is a great WR and could break a long TD at any moment, but his upside is limited as long as Josh Dobbs is his QB.

Tight Ends

Play of the Day: Trey McBride, Cardinals (vs Falcons)

I had McBride in this spot last week and he was a huge disappointment, but we can chalk that up to Clayton Tune. McBride is a great tight end and could be in line for elite production in his first game with a competent passer this year. Kyler does pass down the field more than the other Cardinal QBs have this year, but with a more potent offense, McBride should be more productive. McBride is far too cheap as he will likely be Kyler Murray's second option in the passing game.

Obvious Plays: Mark Andrews, Ravens (vs Browns); Taysom Hill, Saints (@ Vikings); TJ Hockenson, Vikings (vs Saints) & Sam LaPorta, Lions (@ Chargers)

Solid Plays: Dalton Schultz, Texans (@ Bengals) & Daniel Bellinger, Gaints (@ Cowboys)

I have learned my lesson regarding Schultz. He is a bonafide producer in this offense and is heavily targeted in the redzone so he is never an outright fade. He is in a smash position this week against a Bengals team that has allowed the most FD points to tight ends this year. The Cowboys should cruise this week against the Giants, which means there will be plenty of garbage time production for fantasy players to utilize. Bellinger should see a lot of work against a shell defense so he will provide a solid floor and if he finds the endzone he will be an absolute steal.

Other Plays: Luke Musgrave, Packers (@ Steelers) & Irv Smith Jr., Bengals (vs Texans)

Fade of the Day: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys (vs Giants)

Ferguson has been great lately, but he will slow down a bit this week. The positive game script paired with a sneaky tough matchup makes Ferguson a fade for me. The Cowboys can win this week just by running the ball, but you know CeeDee will need his work too, so between the running game and CeeDee's usage there will not be a lot of looks leftover for Ferguson. The Giants are also great against TEs allowing just 42 ypg and 1 TD this season. There are far better options than Ferguson this week.

Other Fades: Cade Otton, Buccaneers (vs Titans) & Juwan Johnson, Saints (@ Vikings)

Bust Alert: Mark Andrews, Ravens (vs Browns)

Andrews can have a great game any week, but he will have some tough sledding this week. He is playing a Browns team that has completely erased TEs all year long. The Browns are allowing less than 3 catches and 20 yards per game to TEs. Now, Andrews is no ordinary TE so he will likely blow past those numbers, but he may struggle to deliver solid value on his $7,300 price against this tough defense. 

Defense/Special Teams

Play of the Day: Cowboys (@ Giants)

This Cowboys D is playing Tommy DeVito??? Did you see what they did to Daniel Jones in Week 1? The Cowboys D/ST should easily be able to score 20+ if not 30+. They are worth paying up for.

Other Plays: Falcons D/ST (@ Cardinals); Steelers D/ST (vs Packers); Saints D/ST (@ Vikings); 49ers D/ST (@ Jaguars) & Vikings D/ST (vs Saints)

Dream Team

QB: Sam Howell, Commanders (@ Seahawks)

RB1: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (@ Jaguars)

RB2: Tony Pollard, Cowboys (vs Giants)

WR1: DK Metcalf, Seahawks (vs Commanders)

WR2: Jahan Dotson, Commanders (@ Seahawks)

WR3: Jalin Hyatt, Giants (@ Cowboys)

TE: Trey McBride, Cardinals (vs Falcons)

Flex: Bijan Robinson, Falcons (@ Cardinals)

D/ST: 49ers (@ Jaguars)

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