Slate Breaker: FD CFB DFS Week 13 (Fri)

Quarterbacks

Play of the Day: Bo Nix, Oregon (vs Oregon State)

With Dillon Gabriel likely limited if he does play, there simply is no other QB on this slate like Nix. Nix is the model of consistency with a floor that is basically 25 FD points. Oregon State does present a challenge for this Oregon offense, but Nix and this offense did succeed against them last year as he had 300+ yards and multiple TDs. Oregon still has an outside chance to make the playoff so they will be playing full throttle until the final whistle to provide a powerful statement game to close out their season.

Seth Henigan, Memphis (@ Temple)

Henigan is the only other QB on this slate who even offers anywhere close to the floor and ceiling that Nix provides. He has 20+ FD points in 9 games this year and has shown 40+ pt upside. Henigan is a great passer and is also a decent athlete allowing him to pick up rushing yards to add on top of his solid passing totals. Memphis should win this game, but it will be competitive so expect Henigan to have a solid regular season finale.

Brady Cook, Missouri (@ Arkansas)

If you need a solid floor play then Cook is the guy for you. He is basically a guarantee for 20 FD points as he has hit the 20 pt mark in every game this season except for a tough matchup against Georgia. His ceiling is not very high as he has only broken the 30 pt threshold once this year and that was against Vanderbilt's nonexistent defense. If you are just trying to win cash but do not care about getting first, then make sure you have Cook in your lineup.

Frank Harris, UT San Antonio (@ Tulane)

In Harris's final regular season game as a Roadrunner expect a strong performance. Tulane is quietly one of the best run defenses in the entire nation, but they are very beatable through the air so expect a heavy dose of Harris this week. This has been a disappointing season for Harris, but the lackluster performances were due to nagging injuries Harris was dealing with, but after a 57.64 pt performance last week, rest assured that Harris is once again fully healthy and ready to produce some big numbers.

Tommy Castellanos, Boston College (vs Miami)

This is all about the running game. Castellanos is not a strong passer, passing for more than 300 yards once all season. When Castellanos's running game is working, he is an elite fantasy option with numerous 30+ FD point games. His recent opponent's have been doing a great job limitimg him by stacking the box and forcing him to pass, which has resulted in him scoring less than 15 FD points in 3 of his last 4 games. Miami has one of the stronger defenses in the ACC so Castellanos is very risky here, but he is a true boom or bust player.

KJ Jefferson, Arkansas (vs Missouri)

After failing to rush for 50 yards in every game this season, Jefferson has started to run more over the past month and has run for 50+ yards in 3 straight games now. At his cheap $8,900 price, Jefferson's modest rushing numbers paired with his decent passing abilities makes him a play this week. As soon as Jefferson started to run more, his fantasy numbers jumped up as he scored 28+ pts in 2 of the 3 weeks since he started to run more. Missouri will be able to put up points against this Arkansas defense so Jefferson will be forced to produce.

Running Backs

Play of the Day: Dylan Carson, Air Force (@ Boise State)

This guy is the slate breaker so make sure you have him in your lineup or you will miss out on a major value here. At $4,400, Carson is one of the top values I have seen in a long time. With Emmanuel Michel banged up, Carson has been the lead full back for Air Force over the past 2 weeks, which is an insanely valuable role since Air Force is one of the most run heavy teams in the nation. Air Force's full back has scored 10+ FD points or rushed for 100+ yards in 8 of their games this year. Boise State has allowed an opponent's RB to score more than 10 FD points in 10 of their games this year. If Carson does score just 10 points this week he would still be a great value at his cheap price, but he can go well above that line. I am a bit worried by the fact that he fumbled last week and did not touch the ball again for the rest of the game, but it was also a complete passing situation where Carson would not have normally been used as the team was down and in a 2 minute drill, but Owen Burk could end up having a monster day if Carson truly is benched.

Peny Boone, Toledo (@ Central Michigan)

Boone is the best RB in the MAC and he plays a run defense that allows 150 rushing yards per game. Boone should absolutely feast, but I do worry about him and the other Toledo starters getting pulled a bit early if the team does go up 3 scores since there are still multiple games that Boone has to play this year with much more on the line. Boone will undoubtedly be productive, but at his steep price, he will have to have a monster game to deliver solid value.

Cody Schrader, Missouri (@ Arkansas)

Schrader has been a fantasy monster over the past month and change as he has scored 20+ FD points in 4 of his last 5 games with multiple 30 point games and a 40 point game in there. Arkansas has gotten roasted by SEC RBs all year long so expect a strong week from Schrader with his only deterrent being his high price.

CJ Baxter, Texas (vs Texas Tech)

As the lead back for Texas, Baxter will be productive. In his first game as the main guy in the Texas backfield, Baxter posted 130 total yards while being involved in both the passing and running game, but failed to find the endzone which was the only thing holding him back from having a monster day. Texas Tech allows 155 rushing yards per game and I like Baxter's chances of finding the endzone. Baxter will for sure score 15 points, but he has as high of ceiling as RB on this slate. If Dylan Carson was not on this slate, Baxter would easily be the Play of the Day.

Gavin Sawchuk, Oklahoma (vs TCU)

Sawchuk is still far too cheap. He continues to be Oklahoma's lead back and has run for 100+ yards in 3 straight games. Dillon Gabriel will also be limited if not out this week so Oklahoma's running game will be on full display this week. Sawchuk is as safe a play as you can find on this slate, but he does lack elite upside with Oklahoma's offense likely limited.

Kye Robichaux, Boston College (vs Miami)

Robichaux will be relied upon as Boston College just cannot pass the ball. Robichaux has taken over this BC backfield ever since Pat Garwo sustained a season ending injury with 100+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games. Miami is a stronger ACC defense, but they are beatable on the ground having allowed big games to Isaac Guerendo and Trey Benson in recent weeks. I doubt he will score much more than 20 points, but he will still have a solid yardage total this week so he is another strong floor play on this slate.

Wide Receivers

Play of the Day: Troy Franklin, Oregon (vs Oregon State)

Luther Burden is the only other WR on this slate who can match the type of production that Franklin puts up on a week by week basis, but Burden does not find the endzone like Franklin does. Franklin is 4th in the nation in yards with 1,221 yards and 2nd in the nation in TDs with 13. Franklin is the best fantasy WR outside of Baton Rouge and with no other truly elite WR on this limited slate, Franklin is a must play as one of the few WRs you can actually count on for any kind of consistency. 

Luther Burden III, Missouri (@ Arkansas)

After a string of subpar games that saw him fail to top 100 yards, Burden got back on track last week with a 158 yard game. 158 yard games were the norm for Burden to begin the season, but after suffering a lower body injury midseason, Burden's numbers saw a significant drop off. Hopefully last week was an indication that he was fully healthy and if you believe it was then I cannot recommend Burden enough. Burden is essentially a lock for 20+ FD points when healthy.

Roc Taylor & Demeer Blankumsee, Memphis (@ Temple)

Memphis is one of the most underrated passing attacks in the country as they are top 10 in yards per game so there is plenty of production for Memphis WRs to absorb. The targets in this offense are fairly consolidated with Taylor and Blankumsee combining to demand the majority of them. Both can record 100+ yards in every single game so either make a solid play which is why they are so close in price. I prefer Taylor to Blankumsee because he just has a longer history of production but the difference between them is marginal.

Oklahoma WRs (vs TCU)

There are a lot of question marks surrounding this Oklahoma WR group. will Dillon Gabriel play and if he does will he be able to run the offense normally? Regardless of what the answers are, one of these WRs will be a great value with Drake Stoops, Nic Anderson and Jayden Gibson all players who could have a great game. I wish there was some more info surrounding this offense, but until there is, these guys are just gambles, valuable gambles, but still just gambles.

Penn State WRs & TEs (@ Michigan State)

Penn State is normally a very run heavy team, but they will pass it out this week if fully healthy. Michigan State is one of the worst secondaries in the Big Ten allowing the 3rd most yards per game so Penn State will take advantage of this deficiency. If QB Drew Allar ends up missing the game, I will likely lower my exposure to this passing game, but if Allar plays any one who holds a stable role in this passing game is a decent play. TE Theo Johnson, TE Tyler Warren, WR Dante Cephus, and especially KeAndre Lambert-Smith are all great plays this week.

Chris Brazzell II, Tulane (vs UTSA)

Brazzell has the best combination of health and usage on this Tulane offense. Brazzell shined in the leading role with both Lawrence Keys and Jha'Quan Jackson out recording 100+ yards and a score. Keys has already been ruled out and Jackson is questionable so Brazzell is in line for another productive week and is a great value at $6,400.

Cheaper Miami WRs (@ Boston College)

Miami has a couple of strong cheaper options at WR. Colbie Young was one of the leading WRs for Miami to begin the season, but has taken more of a backseat in recent weeks. He is still involved as he gets just about 5 targets each week. If Young can find the endzone he will be a difference maker. Brashard Smith is the Deebo Samuel type player for this offense as he is involved as both a runner and receiver so you know he will get one gimmicky play a game which he could break for a TD. Boston College is bad against the run and pass so I do like Smith's diversity in production as a solid way to attack this defense, but either of these guys could end up as phenomenal values.

Addison Ostrenga, Iowa (@ Nebraska)

Iowa is TE U so whoever is the leading TE for Iowa is also their leading receiver. After an injury to star TE Erick Ali, Ostrenga has taken over as the lead TE and has been productive with 5+ catches in back to back games and 8+ FD points in 3 straight games. This Iowa passing attack lacks any kind of real potency, but Ostrenga's usage gives him a very nice floor.

Dream Team

QB: Seth Henigan, Memphis (@ Temple)

RB1: Dylan Carson, Air Force (@ Boise State)

RB2: CJ Baxter, Texas (vs Texas Tech)

WR1: Troy Franklin, Oregon (vs Oregon State)

WR2: Roc Taylor, Memphis (@ Temple)

WR3: Addison Ostrenga, Iowa (@ Nebraska)

Flex: Bo Nix, Oregon (vs Oregon State)

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