Slate Breaker: FD CFB DFS Week 12 (Fri)

South Florida vs UT San Antonio

In QB Frank Harris's swan song, this UTSA offense has taken a step back from previous years. After averaging more than 300 passing yards per game last year, UTSA is throwing for less than 240 yards per game. After being a fantasy gold mine last year, this UTSA has become a fantasy wasteland. RB Kevorian Barnes seemed primed to be this team's workhorse after breaking out down the stretch last year. While he has still been productive, this backfield has devolved into a three way timeshare as he shares work with Robert Henry and Rocko Griffin. All three get solid work with each pretty much locked into 10 carries so their usage will be good enough to produce but their ceilings and floors are hurt by the time share. They are all fairly expensive for players who share their work and are playing a decent run defense, but Kevorian Barnes is clearly the best player on the team so he is the most likely to break a couple runs and have a monster day. The UTSA offense has taken a step back thanks to the absence of 2 of their top 3 WRs from last year. Frank Harris has struggled to produce with the lack WRs scoring more than 20 FD points twice all year as he has only passed for more than 300 yards twice and has not been a big producer with his legs. The one returning star WR from last year, Joshua Cephus, has been productive scoring nearly 16 FD points per game but he is very expensive for a WR who has only topped 100 yards twice all year, but he is also a big time redzone threat with 8 TDs already this season. Cephus is by far the safest play on this UTSA offense. The rest of the UTSA pass catchers do not offer any kind of consistency, but Devin McCain usually gets the most looks out of the rest of the bunch. The USF defense is very bad against the pass though allowing more than 300 pass yards per game so this could be a week reminiscent of 2022 for the UTSA offense. For the USF offense, there is one absolute must play. RB Nay'Quan Wright is the only workhorse back on this slate so that usage alone makes him a phenomenal play, but he is also just $7,800. Wright is way too cheap and is the only RB on this slate you can already give 10+ FD points. Get Wright in your lineup or you will be left behind. USF QB Byrum Brown has the highest upside of any QB on this slate with 3 games of more than 40 FD points and 2 other games over 30. He is a great play at his price. USF has a lot of solid plays at WR with the top guy being Sean Atkins. Atkins has scored 9.7 or more FD points in 7 straight games with 4 games with 19 or more in that same span. He is another great play on this offense as it seems like this entire offense is a bit discounted against a tougher UTSA defense. If Michael Brown-Stephens plays, he is also a great play as he was pushing Atkins for the top WR role in this offense in the last couple of games before he got hurt. If you want to get cheaper exposure to this offense, I like WR Khafre Brown who is a big play machine scoring 4 TDs while recording 3 or less catches in every game but once so he is a boom or bust player.

Colorado vs Washington State

This is a game that will have some high fantasy scores. Colorado's defense has struggled all year long and the Washington State defense has allowed 38 or more points to offenses like Cal and Arizona State over recent weeks. I like the Washington State offense the most with Cam Ward and his plethora of WRs primed for big days. Ward is a boom or a bust play with 25+ FD points in the majority of his games but he also has 3 games under 10 FD points. Playing a defense like Colorado, this should be a boom game for Ward. The Washington State WRs are one of the most productive WR trios in the nation, but they do cannibalize each others' production. Lincoln Victor is obviously the best of the 3 but they all will be involved and productive and can deliver excellent value. Typically, you want to play a RB who is playing against Colorado, but this Washington State RB usage is infuriating. Nakia Watson led the backfield all year long but has only seen 5 touches over his last 2 games. Djouvensky Schlenbaker has absorbed most of Watson's work getting 12 or more touches in back to back weeks. True Freshman Leo Pulalasi burst onto the scene with 13 touches last week. One of these 3 backs will have a great game but it will be hard to predict who. I am picking Pulalasi to take over this backfield after having the highest PFF grade by a Wazzu RB in a couple seasons last week. For Colorado, I like their passing game a lot. Shedeur Sanders has been a fantasy monster at times this year, but he has also left fantasy players disappointed numerous times this year. Sanders is a boom or bust but there is no formula to predict his production. Regardless of whether Sanders produces, these Colorado WRs will be busy and productive. Xavier Weaver and Travis Hunter have been the strongest plays in this offense with both near locks for 70+ yards. I do like Hunter better out of the two since he has been getting a lot of work in the redzone. Jimmy Horn Jr. and Michael Harrison also have reliable roles in this offense, but do not feature the upside that the other 2 pass catchers possess. If you want to play one of these Colorado RBs, good luck. These RBs will only deliver if they score a TD as they do not have a playable floor, but Dylan Edwards does get most of the pass catching work out of the backfield.

Dream Team

QB: Byrum Brown, South Florida (@ UTSA)

RB1: Nay'Quan Wright, South Florida (@ UTSA)

RB2: Leo Pulalasi, Washington State (vs Colorado)

WR1: Lincoln Victor, Washington State (vs Colorado)

WR2: Sean Atkins, South Florida (@ UTSA)

WR3: Travis Hunter, Colorado (@ WSU)

Flex: Frank Harris, UTSA (vs USF)

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