Slate Breaker: FD CFB DFS Week 11 (Tues)

Quarterbacks

Play of the Day: Kiael Kelly, Ball State (@ Northern Illinois)

Kelly has not been a great passer this season but he has not needed to in order to remain a consistent fantasy producer. Kelly has been a fantastic runner ever since taking over as the QB for Ball State. In those 4 games as the Ball State QB, Kelly is averaging a monster 86.5 rushing yards per game. This week he is in line for a monster game with a game against Northern Illinois on tap. Northern Illinois really struggles against mobile QBs. They have allowed 8 rushing TDs to QBs in their 9 games this season so Kelly should be able to provide 15+ FD points with his rushing alone and he has the highest ceiling on this entire slate.

Jase Bauer, Central Michigan (@ Western Michigan)

Bauer is a great play regardless of opponent because he is a great rusher. He has 9 rushing TDs this year and broke out with a major game last week rushing 20 times for 106 yards and 2 TDs. Bauer's rushing ability makes him an intriguing option, but it is important to keep in mind that WMU is pretty good against mobile QBs allowing less than 20 rushing yards per game to QBs. Add in that he is a slate high $11,500 and Bauer is not as appealing as most weeks. Bauer has incredible upside so he is never a complete fade, but the high price and a tough WMU run defense will lead me to limit my exposure. 

Kurtis Rourke, Ohio (@ Buffalo)

Rourke is having a down year, but he is still the best pure passer in the conference. So to be able to get a player of his talents at just $8,700 makes him a must play. Rourke has scored double digit points in every full game he has played this year and has 30+ upside thanks to being a decent threat with his legs on the goal line. Rourke passed for 300+ yards, 5 TDs and added 45 yards on the ground in this same matchup last year so you can see why he is such an appealing option this week. Play him with confidence. 

Running Backs

Play of the Day: Marion Lukes, Central Michigan (@ Western Michigan)

This play does hinge on the injury status of backfield mate Myles Bailey. If Bailey is out again, you need Lukes in your lineup. He has been an elite option with Bailey out of the lineup, totaling 100+ total yards and a TD in each of the 2 games as the lead back. Now Bailey has been practicing this week, but he still has a lot of doubt around his status. If Bailey plays, Lukes is still a decent option, but he is no longer an elite, must play RB.

Antario Brown, Northern Illinois (vs Ball State)

If you are looking for a safe floor play, then skip this section, but if you want to shoot for the stars, Brown is your guy. The is no other back on this slate who has 200+ yards 4+ TD potential besides Brown. He is a great back, but the rest of this offense does struggle so defenses usually key in on Brown and try to shut him down. When Brown hits he is dynamite, scoring 16+ in 4 games this year including a 52 point game, but if he fails to find room, he will leave you disappointed with 5 games scoring 9 or less points this year. At $10,000, Brown is a huge risk, but if he has a good game he is a tournament winner.

Jalen Buckley, Western Michigan (vs Central Michigan)

Buckley was almost the play of the day for me this week. He is a great play taking on a Central Michigan team who has been bad against RBs allowing 18+ FD points to 3 of the last 4 lead backs they have faced including back to back 150+ yard games in their last 2 games. Buckley is a high usage guy with 25 carries in his last game and 3+ catches in 3 of his last 4 games. Buckley should be able to run wild in this game so get him in your lineups. 

Ron Cook Jr., Buffalo (vs Ohio)

Cook continues to be a solid producer for Buffalo. He has scored 8+ FD points in every game this year and with a price of just $6,700, he is a solid value as a floor play alone. Ohio is fairly decent against the run and Cook is stuck in a three way split in a running back committee so his ceiling is a bit limited. He does get all the valuable work for Buffalo though so he has a decent chance to score a TD. Cook is a good way to get different at RB and save some money if you want to pay up elsewhere.

Wide Receivers

Play of the Day: Sam Wiglusz, Ohio (@ Buffalo)

Wiglusz is the most consistent receiver you will find on this slate. He and Rourke have advanced chemistry leading to a reliable floor, but his upside is even more intriguing. He is a great route runner and knows how to find the open spaces in zone coverage which has led to monster games like his 10/155/1 game against WMU a couple weeks back and like his 6/131/2 game against this same Buffalo team last year. Wiglusz will be chalky for a reason so make sure you have him.

Trayvon Rudolph, Northern Illinois (vs Ball State)

Rudolph's usage alone makes him a great play. NIU is constantly trying to get Rudolph the ball in open space giving him a couple run plays per game while also leading the team in targets most weeks. Ball State can be beaten through the air so Rudolph should be productive this week and good things happen when Rudolph can turn that usage into production. In their last game, Rudolph was able to maximize his usage and produced a monster 8/172/1 line. Rudolph has the highest ceiling so his high usage combined with his high ceiling make him a must play.

Central Michigan WRs (@ Western Michigan)

Western Michigan is very beatable through the air allowing a bunch of yards to opposing receivers. In their 9 games, WMU has allowed 17 receivers to record more than 60 receiving yards so you can see there should be some value to extract from these CMU WRs. The issue is trying to predict who as they lack a true alpha receiver. Jesse Prewitt has led the receiver room in targets most games but that has not led to reliable production with just 2 games with more than 50 yards. Tyson Davis and Chris Parker will also be involved, but picking between the three is a complete gamble. One of the 3 CMU WRs will have a solid game so gambling on them is worth a shot.

Kenneth Womack, Western Michigan (vs Central Michigan)

Womack is one of the safest plays on this slate. Womack is the 6th his priced receiver on this slate, but he provides the second safest floor behind Wiglusz. Womack is the short yardage guy for WMU and with WMU's shaky QB play, he is relied on a lot as a safety blanket. He has at least 50 yards in 4 of his last 5 games and has two games with 10+ catches during that same span. Womack is a bonafide producer so he is a great way to stabilize your lineup while you take risks elsewhere.

Qian Magwood, Ball State (@ Northern Illinois)

Magwood is a great high risk, high reward play. He is fairly cheap at $6,500 so he does not need to do much to deliver solid value, but this Ball State passing attack is a big question mark. Kiael Kelly is a run first QB and he should be able to run with ease against this NIU defense, but if they do need to pass the ball, it will be going to Magwood. In a run-first offense, Magwood still does multiple games with 5+ catches but he did lay an egg last time out so there is no reliable floor to bet on. Magwood is very risky but he could be a difference maker for you.

Dream Team

QB: Kiael Kelly, Ball State (@ Northern Illinois)

RB1: Jalen Buckley, Western Michigan (vs Central Michigan)

RB2: Marion Lukes, Central Michigan (@ Western Michigan)

WR1: Taryvon Rudolph, Northern Illinois (vs Ball State)

WR2: Sam Wiglusz, Ohio (@ Buffalo)

WR3: Kenneth Womack, Western Michigan (vs Central Michigan)

Flex: Kurtis Rourke, Ohio (@ Buffalo)

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