Slate Breaker: FD CFB DFS Championship Week (Fri)

New Mexico State vs Liberty

This is by far the less favorable game for fantasy purposes on this limited slate. New Mexico State's offense can put up points, but they do not have any true studs at their skills positions. QB Diego Pavia is the only guy on this offense you can start with any real confidence. He is a decent passer, but more importantly, he is the team's leading rusher. He will be challenged against this tough Liberty defense that held Pavia to a season low 12.5 FDPs when they met in September. Typically Pavia has a strong floor, but this Liberty defense takes that away. He is not a complete fade for me because he has the ability to rush for 3 TDs like he did when they played Liberty last year when he scored 40+ FDP so he does have tournament winning upside. Pavia is a true boom or bust player this week. If you want to play anyone else on this New Mexico State offense, good luck. There is no consistent usage for any of these skill players and this offense could get shut down altogether. If you want to just roll with the guys who will at least get some usage RB Star Thomas and WR Jonathan Brady will at least get 5 opportunities each. The Liberty offense is the biggest X-Factor on this slate. They are a very solid unit, but this New Mexico State D is by far the best defense they will play in this conference. New Mexico State has not allowed an opponent to top 30 points since they played Liberty in early September so they have been playing as good as any other non-Power 5 defense in the nation. QB Kaidon Salter has jump out at you when evaluating the QB options for this slate. Salter has averaged 34.4 FDPs over his last 5 games before Liberty ran out a conservative game script that only saw him pass the ball 11 times last week. Salter has the highest floor of any QB on this slate so he really will not leave you disappointed even against a tough New Mexico State defense, but he is expensive. Both of the top Liberty RBs have me a bit weary as NMSU has only allowed 2 opposing backs to rush for over 100 yards this year, but one of those 2 was against Liberty. RB Quinton Cooley had been leading the backfield for most of the year, but RB Billy Lucas was also hurt in the middle of the season. Since Lucas has returned from injury, Lucas has led the backfield in touches in each of the last 2 games. Cooley is obviously the better player so maybe Liberty was funneling touches to Lucas to get him back up speed following the injury and to keep Cooley fresh for the postseason. Cooley could end up dominating the opportunity share and make Lucas irrelevant, but Cooley is just too expensive and does not offer the upside that the other options around his price do so I am more willing to roll with Lucas than Cooley even though he carries a much greater risk. When it comes to the Liberty pass catchers, they are tough to predict. CJ Daniels will obviously get the most targets but that has only resulted in him getting more than 5 catches twice all year so he will need to score a long TD to hit value at his lofty price. If you want the best shot at a TD, TE Bentley Hanshaw is your guy. He is heavily targeted in redzone, but does not rack up a lot of yardage as there is basically no chance he records more than 50 yards. If you want a worthy dart throw, WR Elijah Smoot is worth a gamble. He missed the middle of the season due to injury, but since returning he has seen a lot of the field. He did lead the WRs in targets 2 weeks ago so he does have a reliable role in this offense and if he finds the endzone he will be a slate breaker at just $4,900.

Oregon vs Washington

This is the game I am far more enamored with on this slate, especially on the Oregon side. Ever since losing to Washington earlier this season, Oregon has been on a warpath. They have moved the ball with ease in every game since, scoring 30+ in each. The Washington defense has also been struggling, allowing lesser offenses like Utah, Oregon State and Wazzu to hang with them. Frankly, I think this will be a bit of a blowout and Oregon will dominate from the first snap. I cannot build a lineup without Bo Nix. I think if he shows out in this game and they win, he walks away with the Heisman and he knows that so he will be putting his best foot forward for the entirety of the game. If you are going to pay up for an RB on this slate, RB Bucky Irving is your guy. Irving nearly averaged 20 FDPs this year and he did that while getting pulled early in a few games. The more competitive a game is, the better Irving performs and Irving dominated Washington the first time they played putting up 25.1 FDPs. Both of the top Oregon WRs are great plays too. Troy Franklin is basically a lock for 80+ receiving yards and a TD so he is definitely worth paying up for. It is WR Tez Johnson who has really been intriguing though as he has been getting more work as he has more combined targets over the games following Oregon's loss. I favor Johnson this week since he is $1K cheaper than Franklin which allows you to load up elsewhere. TE Terrance Ferguson is is the only other Oregon pass catcher who is locked into a consistent role, but he will need to find the endzone to deliver worthwhile value. Backups RB Jordan James and TE Patrick Herbert will be involved in the redzone so they could make value if they find the endzone, but they are very risky since they will likely leave you with less than 30 yard withou a score. On the Washington side of things I am not quite as bullish. You still will need to play a Washington WR no matter what. Rome Odunze is the top guy on this offense as is locked into the type of production that Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson provides, but he is also very expensive and he roasted Oregon in their first matchup so expect him to get more attention this week. It is WR Jalen McMillan who really interests me this week. He has struggled with injury for most of the season, but he was back on the field last week. If he plays a role that is anywhere close to what he played at the beginning of the year then he is a steal at $7,500. His health is a big concern, but at the end of the day it is the only concern so he is a necessary gamble this week. McMillan was the leading WR when these teams played last year. The final WR of an elite trio is Ja'Lynn Polk. Normally, I would love to play him, but it seems like he was hit with a case of the yips recently resulting in lackluster production for nearly a month now so I will not be playing him. He is a good player though, so he could be a good way of getting different and off the chalk. I do not love this rest of this offense. QB Michael Penix will pass a lot, but he does not use his legs so he will need to score a lot and win this game to score more than Nix or Salter, but he is a Heisman candidate for a reason so he is not a complete fade. RB Dillon Johnson is the only Washington RB worth your time as he has been the only RB getting work, but I expect Washington to be trailing and they do not pass to their RBs so do not expect an elite week of production from Johnson. TE Jack Westover is the only other Washington weapon I would consider and he has a decent chance of finding the endzone since they like throwing to him in the flat in short yardage scenarios but he is nothing more than a boom or bust player.

Dream Team

QB: Kaidon Salter, Liberty (vs New Mexico State)

RB1: Bucky Irving, Oregon (@ Washington)

RB2: Billy Lucas, Liberty (vs New Mexico State)

WR1: Tez Johnson, Oregon (@ Washington)

WR2: Jalen McMillan, Washington (vs Oregon)

WR3: Elijah Smoot, Liberty (vs New Mexico State)

Flex: Bo Nix, Oregon (@ Washington)

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