Slate Breaker: FD NFL DFS Week 7

Quarterbacks

Play of the Day: Justin Herbert, Chargers (@ Chiefs)

Herbert has quietly been one of the most consistent fantasy QBs this year. He's had at least 19.58 FD points in every game this year. He has been the model of consistency as he has thrown for at least 225 passing yards and multiple TDs in 4 of his 5 games. Expect even more than consistency this week with a matchup against the Chiefs. Herbert and the Chargers always play the Chiefs well with Herbert putting up a solid game. He has at least 20 FD points in every game he has played against the Chiefs and topped 30 points multiple times. In what should be the highest scoring game of the slate, Herbert is by far the best play of the day.

Obvious Plays: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (vs Chargers) & Josh Allen, Bills (@ Patriots)

Solid Plays: Jared Goff, Lions (@ Ravens) & Tyson Bagent, Bears (vs Raiders)

The Lions backfield is hurt right now. David Montgomery is out. Craig Reynolds and Jahmyr Gibbs have only been practicing in limited fashion so there will be a lot resting on Goff's shoulders this week. He has been solid when given the opportunity though, he has 19+ FD points in 4 of 6 games this year and will likely increase that ratio with another solid performance this week. Baltimore is a good secondary, but Goff's usage will be so high that he should be able to overcome this difficult matchup. Bagent is play purely due to his price and raw talent. At just $6,300, Bagent has an easy path to becoming one of the top values on this slate. He looked decent in his limited action last week, but also ruined his day with two turnovers. Bagent was a prolific producer in college, but it was Division 2. Bagent could end up falling flat on his face; but with such a cheap price, he is worth the gamble.

Other Plays: Lamar Jackson, Ravens (vs Lions) & Jordan Love, Packers (@ Broncos)

Fade of the Day: Desmond Ridder, Falcons (@ Buccaneers)

Ridder needs to have a great matchup in order to even warrant fantasy consideration. This week is not that as he gets a Buccaneers team that is allowing just 16.7 FD points to opponents this year. Ridder does have back to back 300 yard games but that was against the Commanders and Texans so I would not expect him to repeat a streak like that again this season. The Buccaneers are better against the run than the pass, but they are good against both so I am avoiding this offense altogether this week.

Other Fades: Daniel Jones, Giants (vs Commanders) & Sam Howell, Commanders (@ Giants)

Bust Alert: Russell Wilson, Broncos (vs Packers)

Surprisingly, Wilson had his first game scoring less than 15 points last week. He had multiple TDs in 4 of his first 5 games so it has been his TD production that has been buoying his fantasy production. With a strong chance to score multiple TDs in any game, Wilson is not a complete fade; but with a tough matchup this week, he is likely to disappoint. The Packers are allowing just 15.4 FD points and 215 yards per game so Wilson will need those TDs to be fantasy relevant.

Running Backs

Play of the Day: Kenneth Walker, Seahawks (vs Cardinals)

After a concerning trend of a declining snap share, Walker came out of the Seahawks bye looking like a bell cow back once again. He led the backfield with a 75% snap share and dominated RB carries 19-2. That is elite usage which will translate into elite production in an easy matchup against the Cardinals. The Cardinals have allowed an opposing back to rush for 100+ yards in 3 of their last 4 games and 10+ FD points to every lead back they have faced. Kenneth Walker has scored 13.9 points or more in his last 4 games so you cannot go wrong with him this week.

Obvious Plays: Austin Ekeler, Chargers (@ Chiefs)

Solid Plays: Josh Jacobs, Raiders (@ Bears) & Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions (@ Ravens)

Like Kenneth Walker, Jacobs finds himself with the ideal blend of elite usage and matchup. Jacobs has 17+ carries and 5+ targets in four straight games. The Raiders offense has been disappointing, but Jacobs usage alone has kept him fantasy relevant. With a matchup against the Bears this week, I guarantee Jacobs is scoring at least 15 this week with a strong likelihood of topping 20 points. In their first four games, the Bears allowed their opponent's lead back to total 75+ yards and at least 1 TD. They have been decent against the run in their past two games but that was against poor rushing teams like the Commanders and Vikings, so I would not expect that trend to continue. "I'd like to say we're going to be careful with him, but the reality is we need him." That was HC Dan Campbell's quote about Gibbs usage before this week's game. The Lions simply do not have any other choice but to feature Gibbs this week. He is the only RB on the active roster who does not have an injury designation heading into the game so expect 20+ opportunities for Gibbs this week which can lead to elite production with an RB as explosive as Gibbs.

Other Plays: Aaron Jones, Packers (@ Broncos) & D'Onta Foreman, Bears (vs Raiders)

Fade of the Day: Rachaad White, Buccaneers (vs Falcons)

White's lack of efficiency has always made him a less appealing fantasy option, but his decrease in work has made me want to avoid him at all costs. After sporting an elite 89% opportunity share in week 3, White's share has plummeted resulting in a mere 58% last week. Unless White is getting 20+ opportunities, his inefficiency makes him unstartable.

Other Fades: Najee Harris, Steelers (@ Rams) & Jerome Ford, Browns (@ Colts)

Bust Alert: Zack Moss, Colts (vs Browns)

Moss has been one of the biggest surprises in fantasy football this year; but following the return of Jonathan Taylor, that run is bound to end. After still handling a dominant 80% snap share in Taylor's first game back, the two nearly split the snaps in Taylor's second week back. Taylor should handle the majority of RB snaps from this point forward so it does look like Zack Moss season is over.

Wide Receivers

Play of the Day: Josh Palmer, Chargers (@ Chiefs)

The Chiefs have been a WR eraser this year, well a WR1 eraser. They have not allowed an opposing WR1 to record more than 71 receiving yards in any game this year. They have shut down receivers like Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Garrett Wilson, and DJ Moore but that lockdown play has come at a cost. The Chiefs have been bad against opposing WR2s allowing double digit to their opponent's second target in every game except against the Bears. Palmer does not need a plus matchup to succeed either, recording at least 60 receiving yards in every game since Mike Williams' injury. Palmer stacked with Justin Herbert is my favorite combinations this week.

Obvious Plays: Cooper Kupp, Rams (vs Steelers); Keenan Allen, Chargers (@ Chiefs) & Stefon Diggs, Bills (@ Patriots)

Solid Plays: Marquise Brown, Cardinals (@ Seahawks) & Rashee Rice, Chiefs (@ Chargers)

Brown has been a target monster this year. He has double digit targets in 4 of his last 5 games, but this has not led to elite production as he is yet to break the century mark in a game this year. If there was any week to break that cold spell, this is the one. The Seahawks have allowed 4 receivers to pass the century mark in just 5 games. The Cardinals will be playing from behind for the majority of this game leading to a lot of work for Brown to capitalize on. The Chargers have allowed at least 75 yards to an opposing receiver in every game this year and if there is any Chief on this team that is likely to continue that streak it is Rice. He is slowly locking down the WR1 role in this offense with at least 4 targets in his past 4 games and a growing snap share. Rice is no guarantee but I like his chances of succeeding against this weak Chargers secondary.

Other Plays: Christian Watson, Packers (@ Broncos); Chris Godwin, Buccaneers (vs Falcons) & Zay Flowers, Ravens (vs Lions)

Fade of the Day: Curtis Samuel, Commanders (@ Giants)

Do not fall for Samuel's TD streak and think he is a solid fantasy option. He is yet to record more than 65 yards this season and has needed a TD to score more than 8.5 points this year. Samuel is not a big redzone threat so the chances he keeps scoring TDs is slim. The Commanders should beat the Giants fairly easily meaning Samuel's usage will be even lower than usual as the Commanders will be trying to run out the clock for the majority of the second half.

Other Fades: Romeo Doubs, Packers (@ Broncos) & Elijah Moore, Browns (@ Colts)

Bust Alert: George Pickens, Steelers (@ Rams)

With Diontae Johnson set to return to the lineup, Pickens is treading hazardous waters. Diontae Johnson is a target monster and Pickens' fantasy production has resulted from high usage. Pickens averaged 8 targets during Jonson's absence so losing just two of them will be a severe hit towards Pickens potential. Pickens is a big play threat so he could make his day with just a single play, but his floor has been lowered significantly by Johnson's return.

Tight Ends

Play of the Day: Michael Mayer, Raiders (@ Bears)

The Michael Mayer era is officially upon us. After playing less than half the team's snaps in his first 3 games, Mayer's participation has shot up resulting in a 81% snap share last week. Mayer produced with that increased playing time turning it into 5 catches and 75 yards. If Mayer continues to see the field 80+% of the time he is sure to deliver value on his cheap $4,900 price.

Obvious Plays: Travis Kelce, Chiefs (vs Chargers) & Mark Andrews, Ravens (vs Lions)

Solid Plays: Darren Waller, Giants (vs Commanders) & Kyle Pitts, Falcons (@ Buccaneers)

This is not a full fledged endorsement of Darren Waller, it is a conditional one. Only play Darren Waller if Tyrod Taylor is the starting QB this week. Taylor has been in the league long enough to know to get the ball into your best pass catcher's hands. In the two games that Taylor played the majority of snaps at QB, Waller averaged 9 targets and 65 yards. I do not trust Waller if Jones is at QB as he has less than 40 yards in 3 of his 4 games with Jones this year. Kyle Pitts is starting to breakout again. He has scored 12 points in back to back games and should continue that success this week. The Buccaneers are great at shutting down opposing receivers so Pitts should be the top target for the Falcons as he will have the easiest time getting open.

Other Plays: Logan Thomas, Commanders (@ Giants) & Luke Musgrave, Packers (@ Broncos)

Fade of the Day: Tyler Higbee, Rams (vs Steelers)

With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua on the same team there just is not enough left over work to sustain any other pass catchers on this offense. Higbee has just 6 targets and 4 catches over the two weeks since Kupp has rejoined the starting lineup. Higbee has a floor lower than 5 which is not something you want anywhere close to your lineups.

Other Fades: Hunter Henry, Patriots (vs Bills) & Donald Parham Jr., Chargers (@ Chiefs)

Bust Alert: Sam LaPorta, Lions (@ Ravens)

Sam LaPorta is an absolute stud and the Lions know it. The Lions have been featuring the young tight end culminating in an 11 target game a week ago so he can be great in any game given that usage, but he will be slowed down this week. The Ravens have a great pair of linebackers and a great safety so they have all the personnel necessary to completely shut down the tight end position. The Ravens have not allowed a tight end to record more than 50 yards in a game this season so LaPorta's floor is really low this week.

Defense

Play of the Day: Bills D/ST (@ Patriots)

As long as Mac Jones is in at QB, then start whichever defense is facing the Patriots. When a top defense like the Bills is that defense then great things can happen for fantasy owners. The Patriots just do not move the ball and they have not scored more than 20 points in a game this year. The Bills will be racking up sacks and turnovers while giving up very few points, you will not find a better option than the Bills on this slate.

Other Plays: Raiders D/ST (@ Bears); Commanders (@ Giants); Rams (vs Steelers); Buccaneers (vs Falcons) & Bears (vs Raiders)

Dream Team

QB: Justin Herbert, Chargers (@ Chiefs)

RB1: Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks (vs Cardinals)

RB2: Josh Jacobs, Raiders (@ Bears)

WR1: Marquise Brown, Cardinals (@ Seahawks)

WR2: Josh Palmer, Chargers (@ Chiefs)

WR3: Rashee Rice, Chiefs (vs Chargers)

TE: Michael Mayer, Raiders (@ Bears)

Flex: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions (@ Ravens)

D/ST: Bills (@ Patriots)

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