Slate Breaker: FD NBA DFS 10/24/23

 Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets

These two teams played each other a whopping 8 times last year across the regular and postseason. They both return with the same core mostly intact so there is plenty of good data to get more accurate projections and trends for the players in this matchup. The obvious place to direct your attention when previewing this matchup is the centers. Nikola Jokic vs Anthony Davis is one of the marquee big man matchups in this league. The big offensive usage of both these guys help boost their stats against each other since the high usage naturally resulting in more steals and blocks with both these guys having at least 2 blocks/steals in every full game they played against each other. The floors are very strong for these guys with Anthony Davis scoring at least 47 FD points in every game he was able to finish against the Nuggets last year. Nikola Jokic on the other hand scored right around 50 or more in 7 of his 8 games against the Lakers last year. The other Nuggets that have shown reliable consistency against this Lakers squad are Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. In their regular season matchups, Murray was still limited as he was still ramping up from his knee injury; but when the playoffs rolled around, all limitations were off and Murray thrived against the Lakers. He averaged 55.9 FD points across his 4 game playoff series against the Lakers, if he gets anywhere close to the same usage he received during that series he will be a smash value at just $8,800. It also doesn't hurt Murray's case that the Lakers allowed the second most FD points per game to point guards a year ago. KCP should return to a consistent complimentary role in this Nuggets offense. He has been solid in this role especially against the Lakers with 20+ FD points in 6 of their 8 matchups a year ago. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. will return to prominent roles with the team but with a lack on any kind of a reliable floor, I do not suggest committing too many shares to these guys, but I do like Porter's chances of blowing up the most out of the two of them. The Nuggets second unit is mostly new so their chemistry and usage are complete unknowns so featuring any of them in your lineups is a complete gamble. Aside from Anthony Davis, Lebron James is the only other Lakers starter worth your consideration. James may not have the consistency that Davis had in these matchup but he did have a couple blow up games against them with James scoring 60+ FD points in 2 of his last 3 games against the Nuggets. That was playoff Lebron James though which is a different monster. I am intrigued to see the role that Christian Wood and Cam Reddish play off the bench, but there is absolutely no certainty surrounding their playing time and role so rolling with them is more of a gamble. Reddish should be able to hit value fairly easily with a price of just $4,500 though.

Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors

Projecting the Suns offensive usage is the toughest task on the slate. I see a world where either Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, or Kevin Durant could lead the team in fantasy scoring. Kevin Durant is the best all around player as he regularly contributes a full stat line, but he is a 35 year old veteran who did play more than 21 minutes in a preseason game so he could be a bit limited to start the season. Devin Booker was consistently the team's top scorer even after acquisition of Durant, but he does not contribute many other stats and Beal will sap away some usage from him. Beal has played most of his career as an off guard, but it looks as though he will be the primary ball handler in this offense. An increase in assists could really put Beal's fantasy production over the top, but the added responsibilities could bog down the rest of his game. Any of these guys could end up being a great play, but good luck picking who it will be. Jusuf Nurkic does look to be locked into a fairly productive role on this team, but there are far better options at center on this slate so I do not recommend utilizing him unless you are just trying to get off of the chalk. The Suns' 5th starter does provide some fantasy intrigue on this slate. It looks as if it will either be Josh Okogie or Grayson Allen and Okogie looks to be the lead candidate at this point since his play style gels better with the team's three stars. Whoever ends up starting at the 3 will be a tremendous value as they should get some fairly light defense playing alongside the Suns' offensive studs. The Phoenix bench does still have some question marks but there is reliable value to be extracted as Jordan Goodwin looks like he is locked into a fairly reliable role. Goodwin is the only Suns player with extensive playmaking experience so he should be the first guy off the bench and share the floor with Durant, Booker or Beal a fair amount which will allow him to be a fairly solid facilitator. The Warriors starters worry me. Most of them are aging veterans so they may be limited to start the season. Steph Curry is the most likely of the veterans to step right into a big role because he never needs much time to shake off the rust, but I would not be surprised to see Klay Thompson and Chris Paul limited a bit in the opener. Draymond Green on the other hand will definitely be limited at best and may not play at worst. He has not played all preseason so if he does suit up on Tuesday he will be very rusty so I would only expect him to play around 20 minutes. Andrew Wiggins seems to be the best value on the Warriors. Andrew Wiggins is just $6,800 so he does not need to do a lot to deliver value and he should be ready to step right into a big role as the only starter under 30. With Draymond Green out or limited, there is value to be had on this Warriors bench. Kevon Looney looks to be the obvious guy to benefit the most from Green's absence, but he is a center so putting him in your lineup is risky. Jonathan Kuminga is the Warriors bench play who I like the most. He provides solid rebounding and reliable inside scoring so if Green is limited Kuminga will see an increase in playing time and will play a more valuable role allowing him to easily deliver value on a price tag of just $4,600. If Green ends up missing the game altogether, one of the Warriors deeper options off the bench could be a very intriguing option. Dario Saric and Trayce Jackson-Davis best fit that mold. Saric is the proven veteran but TJD is the intriguing youngster who has wowed in the preseason with multiple double doubles but he will likely not see playing time this early in the season making Saric the far better option. 

Dream Team

PG: Jamal Murray, Nuggets (vs Lakers)

PG: Jordan Goodwin, Suns (@ Warriors)

SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Nuggets (vs Lakers)

SG: Eric Gordon, Suns (@ Warriors)

SF: Andrew Wiggins, Warriors (vs Suns)

SF: Jonathan Kuminga, Warriors (vs Suns)

PF: Anthony Davis, Lakers (@ Nuggets )

PF: Dario Saric, Warriors (vs Suns)

C: Nikola Jokic, Nuggets (vs Lakers)

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