Slate Breaker: FD CFB DFS Week 8 (Wed)

Florida International vs Sam Houston

I think Sam Houston will be getting their first win of the year in this one. Their offense has been steadily improving and now they get an FIU defense that cannot stop anyone right now. They allowed Cade McConnell to have a great day in his first career start and allowed 25+ FD pts to opposing QBs in 3 of the 4 games before last week. Given the susceptibility of this FIU defense, Keegan Shoemaker is a great start. He is riding a bit of a hot streak, he has 250+ passing yards and multiple TDs in all 3 of the games since fully taking over the starting job. Add in the injuries plaguing the Sam Houston backfield and Shoemaker should be adding in a couple extra points to his already solid passing floor with his rushing yardage. Speaking of Sam Houston injuries, if John Gentry is back then he is a great start, but you likely will not have much clarity on his status before kickoff so he is a big gamble as he could leave you with a zero. The receivers in this game are easy to predict, both the WR1s in this game are must starts in my opinion. Noah Smith has been a monster since taking over as the lead target following injuries to his fellow wideouts, he has at least 16 pts in all 3 of those games and topped 22 in 2 of them. The floor and the ceiling is there for Smith; you cannot go wrong with him in your lineup even with his 9K price tag. Kris Mitchell on the other side has been almost as consistent. He seems locked into 70-100 receiving yards as he has been averaging 87 yards per game over his last 5 games. He is very affordable at 8.1K for that kind of consistency so it is hard to build a lineup without him. The FIU QBs and RBs are harder to manage and predict. Keyone Jenkins has been a consistent threat on the ground in the redzone with 4 straight games with a rushing TD. The rest of Jenkins' game is full of inconsistency. He does not have a passing TD in three straight games and has not rushed for more than 35 yards in a game this year. The lack of consistency will likely keep him out of my lineups; although if he has a great passing game and finds the endzone with his feet then he could top 25 points, but I would not bet on it. The FIU backfield is a mess, but so is every backfield on this slate. Shomari Lawrence will lead the team in opportunities; but he has lacked juice, topping 50 total yards just three times this year. Kejon Owens is the other half of this backfield and he has more oomf, but only has more than 10 carries once this year. Sam Houston's WR Malik Phillips also warrants some attention after leading the team in targets a week ago and topping 90 yards in back to back weeks, but Noah Smith is still the preferred option. Sam Houston's WR Al'vonte Woodard is a nice dart throw as he has stepped up into a bigger role in recent weeks which has resulted in him averaging 49 yards while scoring 2 TDs over the past two weeks.

New Mexico State vs UT El Paso

New Mexico State and their run-first offense should win this game pretty comfortably. They feature the only true must play on this slate in QB Diego Pavia. Pavia is a legitimate 2 way threat as he has scored at least 14 points with his passing and 9 points with his rushing ability in each of the past 4 games. His floor is 22+ points and he can easily go for 30+, there simply is no other player with Pavia's production and consistency on this slate so you need him in your lineup. The rest of the NM St offense is a bit of a crapshoot. Star Thomas is the lead back but that has not necessarily translated into a lot of production as he has only topped 75 total yards once this year. He does look locked into 10+ opportunities and the UTEP run defense is weak so this should be a good week to start him. The NM St WRs are a complete gamble. There has only been one NM St WR who has recorded more than 5 catches in a game this season and that was Eli Stowers last week when he turned 6 catches into just 57 yards so this whole group has a nonexistent floor. If you want to use some of these WRs as dart throws, Trent Hudson is the deep threat and Jonathan Brady usually ends up with the most targets; but both these guys could leave you very disappointed. On the UTEP side of the ball, Kelly Akharaiyi is the only player I am completely sold on. But even he is not a guarantee, he only has two games over 100 yards and two games with a TD so he is a boom or bust player as he has put up 38.3 points in a game and 0 points in a game this year. His lack of an experienced QB also concerns me. Torrance Burgess Jr. and Deion Hankins seem to be in a fairly even split and against a tough run defense like NM St that means bad news for both of their fantasy potential with NM St only allowing one RB to top 100 yards this year. Cade McConnell looked dynamic in his debut a week ago, but I do not expect him to score more than any of the other QBs in this slate so it is best to avoid him this week. WR Jeremiah Ballard does provide a nice floor if you need a cheaper WR to round out your lineup. He has at least 39 yards in 5 straight games and 48+ in 4 of those games so he seems like a lock to score more than 5 points so he will not leave you with a zero at the very least.

Dream Team

QB: Diego Pavia, New Mexico State (@ UTEP)

RB1: Star Thomas, New Mexico State (@ UTEP)

RB2: Shomari Lawrence, FIU (@ Sam Houston)

WR1: Noah Smith, Sam Houston (vs FIU)

WR2: Kris Mitchell, FIU (@ Sam Houston)

WR3: Al'vonte Woodard, Sam Houston (vs FIU)

Flex: Keegan Shoemaker, Sam Houston (vs FIU)

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