Slate Breaker: FD NFL DFS Week 4

Quarterbacks

Play of the Day: Justin Fields, Bears (vs Broncos)

If Justin Fields is ever going to be worth starting, this has to be the game. The Bears should actually be competitive this week and the Broncos defense cannot stop anyone. They made Jimmy G and Sam Howell look like All Pros and made Tua look like the best QB of all time. If Justin Fields does not succeed this week, he is an easy fade for the rest of the year.

Obvious Plays: Josh Allen, Bills (vs Dolphins) & Jalen Hurts, Eagles (vs Commanders)

Solid Plays: Joe Burrow, Bengals (@ Titans) & Russell Wilson, Broncos (@ Bears)

Joe Burrow gets a Titans D that simply cannot stop the pass. They have allowed opposing QBs to pass for 300 yards per game so this has all the fixings for a monster game for Burrow. Add in the fact that this defense is tremendous against the run and this game should be all Burrow & Co, he is as safe as any other QB this week. Russell Wilson has not been good nor has he been bad. He has two 15 point games and a 27 point game, but this should be his most productive game of the season. This is a battle of two nonexistent defenses so expect a shootout which will lead to 300 yards and multiple scores for the wily veteran. 

Other Plays: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (@ Bills); Lamar Jackson, Ravens (@ Browns) & Justin Herbert, Chargers (vs Raiders)

Fade of the Day: Dak Prescott, Cowboys (vs Patriots)

This Patriots defense is good. They limited the Eagles and Dolphins to 25 & 24 points respectively so in a matchup against a lesser offense and QB expect the Patriots to be able to limit this offense. I still expect the Cowboys to win, but this will be a defensive battle with two teams that prefer to play great defense and run the ball. Prescott is not the elite QB that is required to tear this defense apart so there are far better options and values than Prescott this week.

Other Fades: Same Howell, Commanders (@ Eagles) & Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (@ Saints)

Bust Alert: Anthony Richardson, Colts (vs Rams)

Richardson has been a revelation to start the season, thanks in large part to his rushing ability. But that rushing ability has come at a cost as he came up gimpy multiple times in Week 1 and suffered a concussion in Week 2 that also cost him Week 3. He is fully healthy again, but after seeing him get beat up two weeks in a row, the Colts may opt to protect their new franchise qb and make him more of a passer which should still mean good things for this Colts offense, but will severely diminish Richardson's fantasy potential. I could be wrong and Richardson could tear this Rams D apart, but just proceed with caution as the Colts may ease him back into the action.

Running Backs

Play of the Day: Alvin Kamara, Saints (vs Buccaneers)

Kamara is back and I am jumping right in. This Saints backfield has been in shambles with Jamaal Williams on the IR so Kamara should have no competition for touches. With Derek Carr either banged up or out, the Saints will make Kamara the focal point of this offense so the usage will guarantee a solid floor for Kamara to hit value at his $6,500 price, but Kamara is one of the top receiving back in the league so he has as high of a ceiling as any RB. Take advantage of Kamara's discount while you can because his price will shoot up at least 1K next week.

Obvious Plays: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (vs Cardinals) & Tony Pollard, Cowboys (vs Patriots)

Solid Plays: D'Andre Swift, Eagles (vs Commanders); Kyren Williams, Rams (@ Colts) & Javonte Williams, Broncos (@ Bears)

D'Andre Swift is pushing his way into the obvious plays section. Swift has taken over this Eagles backfield and has dominated with every single touch. Swift has averaged almost 7 yards per carry since taking over the job and with the Eagles heavily favored this week, he will string together another strong week of fantasy production. Kyren Williams was the only Rams RB to play on offense last week, while that did not lead to a productive fantasy day, that usage is elite making him a great play almost every week. Javonte Williams has not shown the explosion that made him such a sensation his rookie year. He has been getting all the RB opportunities though, and with a matchup against the Bears, big things will come for Williams. The Bears have already allowed 7 TDs to opposing RBs while also giving up a bunch of yardage. Williams has still not fully recovered from tearing his knee but this is still a week he will shine.

Other Plays: Zack Moss, Colts (vs Rams); Alexander Mattison, Vikings (@ Panthers) & Joshua Kelley, Chargers (vs Raiders)

Fade of the Day: Devon Achane, Dolphins (@ Buffalo)

After putting up 49.3 points a week ago, I know a lot of people will be itching to put Achane in his lineup, but wait a week. This Bills defensive front is no joke. Besides a couple long runs by Breece Hall, this Bills front has been impenetrable. The Dolphins offense will still be productive on Sunday but it is best to avoid a backup RB against this stout run defense.

Other Fades: Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots (@ Cowboys); Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders (@ Eagles) & Rachaad White, Buccaneers (@ Saints)

Bust Alert: Joe Mixon, Bengals (@ Titans)

Mixon has a stranglehold on the Bengals backfield so he has a solid baseline from his usage alone. He is never an outright fade, but this Titans front is TOUGH. The Titans have not allowed an opponent's lead back to average more than 3 yards per carry on the ground. Add in the fact that this Titans secondary is VERY vulnerable and big things should be coming for Burrow and Chase while Mixon's production will be lacking.

Wide Receivers

Play of the Day: Puka Nacua, Rams (@ Colts)

As long as Cooper Kupp is out of the lineup, you NEED Nacua in your lineups. He is playing that ultra productive Cooper Kupp role where is the first read on almost every play. There are only 4 players with a first read share above 40%: Davante Adams, Ja'Marr Chase, Michael Pittman and Puka; that is elite company. This Rams team is not great so they will never be in a position where they are just running out the clock, keeping Puka involved for the entirety of the game. He could not get a better matchup to capitalize on this usage as he gets a Colts secondary that has struggled to keep up with receivers all year long allowing Calvin Ridley to go off and even allowing 3 different Texans receivers to top 70 yards. Nacua has been ultra productive in his young career and he is yet to even score a TD, so his ceiling is as high as any receiver in the NFL while he is in this prime WR1 role.

Obvious Plays: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins (@ Buffalo); Justin Jefferson, Vikings (@ Panthers); Ja'marr Chase, Bengals (@ Titans) & Davante Adams, Raiders (@ Chargers)

Solid Plays: Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers (vs Cardinals); Adam Thielen, Panthers (vs Vikings) & Michael Pittman Jr., Colts (vs Rams)

Aiyuk has ascended to the WR1 role on this productive offense so in most weeks he is a solid play. But with Deebo Samuel banged up and most likely limited if he does play, Aiyuk is in the position to go absolutely bananas as the only healthy receiver on this team. Thielen is the only real option that the Panthers have in this passing game and the Panthers are starting to realize that. After only getting two targets in Week 1, he has gotten 9 and 14 in the following weeks; that is excellent usage. Add in the fact that this is a revenge game for Thielen as he takes on his former Viking teammates. He will be motivated to produce and the Panthers will feature him resulting in a productive outing against a Vikings secondary that has allowed their opponent's lead receiver to average 24.4 FD points, so Thielen should smash. Michael Pittman has gotten at least 11 targets in every game this year. ELEVEN. Pittman is being utilized like a fantasy stud, while these targets are not as valuable as most targets with a lot of them coming close to the line of scrimmage, Pittman's usage is too good to pass over and provides a floor that most WRs cannot compete with.

Other Plays: Nico Collins, Texans (vs Steelers); Joshua Palmer, Chargers (vs Raiders); Jakobi Meyers, Raiders (@ Chargers) & DJ Moore, Bears (vs Broncos)

Fade of the Day: Jordan Addison, Vikings (@ Panthers)

The Panthers secondary is the strongest part of this squad. They have only allowed 2 receivers to top 80 yards and with Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson locked into a heavy workload, there just will not be much production to go around for Addison. So far in the season, Addison has had two good games; but both of those strong outings came as a result of a long TD catch. That kind of production is hard to predict, so in a tough matchup with no guarantee of a solid workload it is better to look elsewhere this week.

Other Fades: Jerry Jeudy, Broncos (@ Bears) & DeAndre Hopkins, Titans (vs Bengals)

Bust Alert: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys (vs Patriots)

The Patriots have already faced AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Garrett Wilson. No other team has had to face WRs like that to start the year, and the Patriots have thrived as they are yet to allow a WR to gain more than 100 yards. The Patriots are great at taking away their opponent's top receiver and CeeDee Lamb will get that treatment this week so his ceiling is severely limited so it is best to avoid Lamb this week.

Tight Ends

Play of the Day: Logan Thomas, Commanders (@ Eagles)

The Eagles have one glaring weakness and it is their ability to cover Tight Ends. Hunter Henry and TJ Hockenson absolutely shredded this defense. Thomas is not quite as good of a player as those two, but his involvement is still great. He got 8 targets in Week 1 and was on pace for a similar output in Week 2 before departing with a concussion. Thomas is locked into a productive role in this offense especially in the redzone so in a plus matchup against the Eagles, get as much Thomas as you can.

Obvious Plays: TJ Hockenson, Vikings (@ Panthers) & George Kittle, 49ers (vs Cardinals)

Solid Plays: Hayden Hurst, Panthers (vs Vikings) & Tanner Hudson, Bengals (@ Titans)

Hurst is the next best receiver on this Panther offense after Thielen. His talent has not translated into a bunch of opportunities, but he is getting consistent looks in the redzone. At just $5,400, Hurst only needs to convert on one of those redzone opportunities to be worth his price. Hudson's inclusion on this list is more about his $4,000 price than his talent. He is not the greatest Tight End on this slate, nowhere close actually. But with Irv Smith ou,t he is the Bengals' leading pass catcher at tight end and to get a role like that at the lowest price you can possibly get, he is a great way to get a ton of savings without completely sacrificing a player slot in your lineup.

Other Plays: Zach Ertz, Cardinals (@ 49ers) & Cole Kmet, Bears (vs Broncos)

Fade of the Day: Hunter Henry, Patriots (@ Cowboys)

Henry has had some strong weeks, but those came on the back of receiving TDs. The Patriots offense will struggle against this Cowboys defense so Henry's potential to find the endzone will be severely limited. With Henry topping out at 56 yards, he does not have enough production to be worthy of a spot in your DFS lineups if he is unable to score. 

Other Fades: Dawson Know, Bills (vs Dolphins) & Jake Ferguson, Cowboys (vs Patriots)

Bust Alert: Mark Andrews, Ravens (@ Browns)

The Ravens have not been passing a lot to begin the season. When they do pass, it has been Zay Flowers who has been garnering most of the looks. Of course, Andrews will always be a prominent feature in the Ravens' redzone offense, but without the yardage baseline we have become accustomed to with Andrews over the past couple years, it is hard to justify spending up for him.

Defense

Start of the Week: Eagles D/ST (vs Commanders)

The highest priced defense on this slate is an easy choice. Sam Howell has just been bad to start the season. He holds the ball too long and is very turnover prone so a defensive line like the Eagles should absolutely destroy this Commanders offense. This Commanders offense made the Cardinals look good and allowed the Bills D/ST to score 30+ so just imagine what a defense as talented as the Eagles can do. They are expensive, but there is no way the Eagles D/ST does not deliver good value in this matchup.

Other Starts: Cowboys D/ST (vs Patriots); 49ers D/ST (vs Cardinals); Saints D/ST (vs Buccaneers); Vikings D/ST (@ Panthers)

Dream Team

QB: Justin Fields, Bears (vs Broncos)

RB1: Alvin Kamara, Saints (vs Buccaneers)

RB2: Joshua Kelley, Chargers (vs Raiders)

WR1: Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals (@ Titans)

WR2: Davante Adams, Raiders (@ Chargers)

WR3: Puka Nacua, Rams (@ Colts)

TE: Logan Thomas, Commanders (@ Eagles)

Flex: Adam Thielen, Panthers (vs Vikings)

D/ST: 49ers D/ST (vs Cardinals)

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