Slate Breaker: FD NFL DFS Week 1

Thursday Breakdown

Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs

Football is here and we kick off the season with an underrated matchup between two top 5 offenses from a year ago, which should translate into plenty of fantasy points to go around. The man who should score the most points should be obvious though, Patrick Mahomes is the biggest star in this league and his star will be shining bright on Thursday. Mahomes is built for the big games, he has dominated every opening game he has played in averaging 308 passing yards and an 18-0 TD to INT ratio. Probability would say to expect another performance along the same lines and if he does it is hard to imagine anyone outscoring him, making him a lock for your 1.5X MVP slot. When it comes to the Lions offense there are three guys I will be honing in on: Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions should be playing catchup for most of this game so the passing offense and these three guys in particular will be the ones to benefit so I would recommend featuring Jared Goff with one of the other two in your lineup. When it comes to the Chiefs side things get a little tricky. As of writing this there is no concrete news on Travis Kelce, but even if he does play, he is a fade for me because there just is no way he would be ready to play his usual role as the focal point of this offense so he will not be worth his price. The Chiefs player I am favoring and playing the most is Richie James Jr., I love the role he has been playing in camp with the team. He has been operating out of the slot playing and has been looking like Mahomes's new favorite target at receiver, a perfect combo against this weak Lions secondary. The rest of the Chiefs offensive output is a little bit of a crapshoot, I will go with the guys who have been in the system and played a somewhat reliable role. First, we know on third downs, the redzone and in the two minute drill, Jerick McKinnon will be a safety blanket making him a solid floor play. Alternatively, Justin Watson does not play a lot of snaps, but he is good for around one endzone target or deep shot per game so if he connects he is a worthy play at his price. I could make up my mind between two lineups, so it is a two lineup special this week.

Dream Team

Patrick Mahomes (MVP 1.5X)

Jared Goff

Amon-Ra St. Brown OR Jahmyr Gibbs

Richie James Jr.

Justin Watson OR Jerick McKinnon

Main Slate Breakdown

Quarterbacks

Play of the Day: Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos (vs Las Vegas Raiders)

I know I may be jumping the gun a bit here, but I am bold on the Broncos this year and their imminent turnaround led by Sean Payton. The problem seemed to be more of a Nathaniel Hackett problem than a Russell Wilson problem. After Hackett's dismissal, Wilson scored 24+ FD points in all his games so the old Wilson is still there and Payton should help bring that out on a consistent basis. Wilson and the Broncos could not have asked for a better matchup to debut this offense. The Raiders defense was bad against the pass last year; they did bring in a new pair of corners, but I just cannot imagine them being able to go from being the 29th best team against the pass to becoming a formidable unit. I like Wilson's appeal more in the big money tournaments instead of cash games, but he is a solid play regardless at $7,300.

Obvious plays: Jalen Hurts, PHI (@NE) & Lamar Jackson, BAL (vs HOU)

Solid Plays: Justin Herbert, LAC (vs MIA) & Kirk Cousins, Min (vs TB)

Herbert was a close second in my Play of the Day considerations. I like this Dolphins Chargers game for fantasy purposes. It should be a shootout and Herbert will fuel their offensive output. Last year was a bit of a disappointment for Herbert so he will be motivated to show out now that he has a healthy offense for once. Kirk should have a usual Kirk game he will put up 250 yards and 2 passing TDs since this Buccaneers defense is more vulnerable through the air. I do not think Kirk will go nuts but his solid floor makes him a great cash game play.

Other Plays: Trevor Lawrence, JAC (@ IND) & Derek Carr, NO (vs TEN)

Fade of the Day: Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns (vs Cincinnati Bengals)

I am not buying into the Watson turnaround, at least not yet. Nick Chubb is still on this team and should be the obvious emphasis of this offense. Watson should be better than he was last year, but that is not saying much since he only scored more than 20 FD points once in his six games. The Bengals also present a tough matchup, they gave up a good amount of yards through the air but did not allow many TDs ranking top 5 in scoring defense. With a low expected team total, Watson just does not possess the necessary upside to be worth $7,400 when guys like Russell Wilson and Derek Carr are cheaper.

Other Fades: Matt Stafford, LAR (@SEA) & Anthony Richardson, IND (vs JAC)

Bust Alert: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (vs Green Bay Packers)

Two weeks really tricked a lot of people. Everyone thinks Fields is one of the top values on the fantasy market mostly because of a two week period against the Dolphins & Lions when he had back to back 40+ point games. These games are a bit of a mirage with both of the lines being bumped up by very long touchdown runs and to expect him to do that on a regular basis would be foolish. Outside of those two games, Fields topped out at 26.04 FD points while finishing below 20 FD points in the majority of his games. The solid rushing base line does provide a nice floor for him but if you are expecting a 30+ point game you better hope for a long TD run otherwise temper your expectations.

Running Backs

Play of the Day: Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears (vs Green Bay Packers)

The RB1 on the top rushing offense from a year ago at $6,100??? Give me all of that. With David Montgomery in Detroit, this is Herbert's backfield now which is a great opportunity for both DFS and season long fantasy players. The Bears averaged 177 yards on the ground which ranked first in the league by a whole 17 yards so the opportunity and production is available for him. In his RB2 role, Herbert excelled averaging 5.0 YPC while displaying a knack for finding the endzone with 6 TDs on just 232 carries. The Packers do present a good matchup too with David Montgomery scoring 29.3 FD points across the two games against the Packers from a year ago so expect Herbert to have similar production now that he is in that lead back role. At $6,100, Herbert should be a lock in your lineup.

Obvious Plays: CMC, SF (@ PIT) & Austin Ekeler, LAC (vs MIA) & Nick Chubb, CLE (vs CIN)

Solid Plays: JK Dobbins, BAL (vs HOU) & Raheem Mostert, MIA (@ LAC)

If there is one lesson you should take away from this Slate Breaker, it is that you should always play the RB playing the Houston Texans. They were just horrible against the run last year and it does not look like they have done anything to fix that issue. Dobbins is not a feature back but he will end up with the most carries in the backfield which will be good enough for him to be worth his price. Mostert was the last back standing in Miami so he will have every opportunity to succeed since he has been the only one practicing. Devon Achane may play but he will be limited if so. The Chargers were bad against the run last year but they added Eric Kendricks which should help them a lot. Even with the Chargers improvement, the opportunity and price make Mostert well worth your consideration.

Fade of the Day: Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers, (@ Atlanta Falcons)

He is too expensive and this offense is going to get off to a rough start. Sanders has never shown the ability to be capable of being a bellcow so sharing carries in a bad offense is not a recipe for success. He has not shown an ability to catch passes out of the backfield so he has neither a high floor or a high ceiling. 

Other Fades: Najee Harris, PIT (vs SF) & James Conner, ARI (@ WAS)

Bust Alert: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (@ New Orleans Saints)

We all know Henry is a beast so he will probably be fine. This offense and this matchup does concern me. I have not seen a lot of optimism out there about the Titan offense. The O line has taken a step back and who knows if Tannehill can still provide adequate enough play to stop the opponent from stacking the box and shutting down Henry. Then you have to factor in the Saints defense who are a bit vulnerable against the run but they just do not give up a lot of points.

Wide Receivers

Play of the Day: Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (vs Las Vegas Raiders)

I am listing him here before having any concrete info on Jerry Jeudy but I am operating under the assumption that Jeudy is out. If he ends up playing I will move off of Sutton a bit. With Jeudy out, Sutton is an absolute steal at $5,900. In the Broncos lackluster offense from a year ago, Sutton scored 10.5 FD points in both the games Jeudy missed so in what should hopefully be a reinvigorated offense, Sutton is primed for a big day.

Obvious Plays: Justin Jefferson, MIN (vs TB) & Ja'Marr Chase, CIN (@ CLE) & Tyreek Hill, MIA (@ LAC) 

Solid Plays: Chris Olave, NO (vs TEN) & Drake London, ATL (vs CAR)

Both these guys have plus matchups and they are the clear top targets on their teams. Olave will look to develop a quick chemistry with Carr, but the fact he could succeed with Andy Dalton last year gives me absolute confidence Olave will thrive with Carr. London on the other hand, has already adjusted to a QB change as he found instant chemistry with Desmond Ridder as London received at least 8 targets in every game Ridder played. 

Sleepers: Puka Nacua, LAR (@ SEA) & Marvin Mims, Den (vs LV)

Fade of the Day: Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals (@ Washington Commanders)

If you think using any part of this Cardinals offense is a good idea, be my guest but I will not be touching that with a 10 foot pole. Easy Fade.

Other Fades: DeAndre Hopkins, TEN (@ NO) & DJ Moore, CHI (@ GB)

Bust Alert: Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders (@ Denver Broncos)

I need to see how this Garappolo Adams connection looks before I pay up for Adams. Add in the addition of Jakobi Meyers who will demand even more targets. I need to wait and see on this one.

Tight Ends

Play of the Day: Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (@ Seattle Seahawks)

This is the perfect storm for a big Higbee day. Cooper Kupp is out and he gets a dream matchup with the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are the worst team aside from the Cardinals against tight ends. With Higbee having the best chemistry with Stafford out of all the available pass catchers, I expect Higbee to lead the team in targets with a good chance of scoring a TD. 

Obvious Plays: T.J. Hockenson, MIN (vs TB) & Dallas Goedert, PHI (@ NE)

Solid Plays: Greg Dulcich, DEN (vs LV) & Dalton Schultz, DAL (@ BAL)

Dulcich should also be invited to the Wilson, Sutton party and with his first full offseason with the team expect Dulcich to dominate Tight End snaps leading to enough targets to make him worth his price. In CJ Stroud's first game expect him to look to Schultz early and often. Schultz is the only proven producer on this team, I do not expect him to match the numbers he put up with the Cowboys but he will still end up with a serviceable line. 

Sleepers: Isaiah Likely, BAL (vs HOU) & Cole Turner, WAS (vs ARI)

Fade of the Day: Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs San Francisco 49ers)

This fade is mostly about the matchup for me. Kenny Pickett will be running for his life all day long and the most susceptible part of this defense is the secondary, particularly the corners. With the Steelers also featuring some good receivers I would expect the throws that Pickett is able to get off will likely end up on the outside especially since the Niners are great against Tight Ends.

Other Fades: Taysom Hill, NO (vs TEN) & Irv Smith Jr., CIN (@ CLE)

Bust Alert: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (vs Houston Texans)

Andrews has been missing practice which is always a concern. But it is the added competition for targets as well as a poor Texans run defense that worries me. As the top priced Tight End on the slate, Andrews needs a big day to be worth the price but with a pair of new receivers that will demand targets plus the ease that the Ravens will be able to run the ball leads me to think Andrews will not garner enough opportunities to be worth his hefty price.

Defenses

Play of the Day: Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals

Does it matter who starts at QB for the Cardinals? This Cardinals offense seems dead in the water before even playing their first game. This Commander D line should be able to pin their ears back and rack up an absurd amount of sacks. Maybe Clayton Tune balls out if he is the QB but the chances of anything close to that is slim. This is an easy play.

Other Plays: Saints (vs TEN) & Vikings (vs TB) & 49ers (@ PIT) & DEN (vs LV)

Dream Team

QB: Russell Wilson, Broncos (vs Raiders)

RB1: Khalil Herbert, Bears (vs Packers)

RB2: JK Dobbins, Ravens (vs Texans)

WR1: Justin Jefferson, Vikings (vs Buccaneers)

WR2: Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals (@ Browns)

WR3: Courtland Sutton, Broncos (vs Raiders)

TE: Tyler Higbee, Rams (@ Seahawks)

Flex: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts (vs Jaguars)

Defense: Saints (vs Titans)

Monday Breakdown

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

When looking at this matchup, it is obvious that these two offenses revolve around their Quarterbacks. Josh Allen is the better of the two QBs at least for fantasy purposes. He has both a great arm and plus athleticism securing prolific passing numbers as well as a solid rushing line which should make him a lock in your MVP 1.5X slot. Aaron Rodgers is a wily veteran who should be able to find the slightest hole in a defense. Both of these defenses present challenges for these QBs, but they are just too good to not end up with a productive line making both must starts in this single game slate. If you are spending up on both of the QBs that only leaves enough budget for one more 10K+ player while Stefon Diggs and Garrett Wilson would normally make great options, they both draw tough cornerback matchups leading me to limit exposure. So with one more expensive player to put in my lineup I am utilizing Dalvin Cook. The Jets have made it obvious that Breece Hall is going to be eased in very slowly making Cook a feature back in Week 1. Cook is both a good runner and pass catcher so I like both his floor and ceiling as Arron Rodgers loved throwing to his backs a year ago, at $12,000 he is a steal. If you want to play it a little risky, Gabe Davis offers the highest ceiling of any player on this slate, he is the Bills deep threat and they love taking shots which has lead to monster games for Davis where he will connect on three of those shots and put up 40 points, but keep in mind there is basically no floor with a player like Davis. Now on the cheaper end of the spectrum, things are more of a crapshoot. One guy I am riding with is Mecole Hardman, I am hoping the Jets deploy him similarly to how the Chiefs did which would make him a serious redzone threat and at $7,000, he would only need one score to be worth his price. The other cheap players I like are a pair of Bills pass catchers, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid. We know what we are getting with Shakir, a handful of underneath targets with the hope that he breaks one. Kincaid on the other hand, is a complete wildcard, we do not know how he will be deployed but there have been rumors from camp that he could become the number 2 target in this offense so if he steps right into that role he will be well worth his price. One final play I like is Greg Zuerlein, the Jets offense may have some kinks to smooth out in their first game together which could lead them to sputtering out in Bills territory which would mean big points from Greg. 

Dream Team

Josh Allen (MVP 1.5X)

Aaron Rodgers

Dalvin Cook

Mecole Hardman

Dalton Kincaid

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