NFC West Preview

NFC West Preview

Now that we have made it through the Southern portion of the NFL, we move into divisions with some real stakes on the line as every division from here on out has at least one team who sees a realistic route to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. This week we hit the NFC West. The division featured two playoff teams a year ago and the other two teams in the division only flopped due to a string of harsh injuries. In a stacked division, they'll have their hands full as they take on the equally talented NFC East and a competitive AFC North as well as having to play each other twice. Whoever rises to the top of this division will definitely have earned it and be a true title contender when January comes around.

Arizona Cardinals

Strengths: Coming into the year, this Cardinal team is the biggest wildcard in the division. They come in under a new regime and with an injured star QB so it is reasonable to believe that this may not be the greatest season for the team. I would not be too hasty to count them out though as there is still a lot of questions regarding Kyler Murray's status but if the QB is back to full health sooner rather than later, this team becomes one that can compete with the best of them. Over the offseason, the team flipped one of their weaknesses into a possible strength. Last year the offensive line was a problem and may have led to the downfall of the team as they got Kyler Murray and James Conner hit early and often leading both to miss long periods of time for the team. The team retained its two strongest lineman in Humphries and Hernandez while adding the solid veterans Froholdt and Wilkinson but the biggest addition was their first round pick, Paris Jackson. Jackson is any absolute unit who should have no trouble adjusting to the NFL game. If this ends up being the cohesive unit is should be, a healthy Murray can ride this line to an offensive revival. A big aspect of this possible offensive revival will be the pass catchers, while they lost a true WR1 in Deandre Hokpins, this is a deep position group filled with top end speed. Both Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore looked primed for a breakout season a year ago, but the offensive line deficiency led Cardinal QBs to be overly reliant on short throws. Now that the receivers will have the ability to work their way down the field and behind the defenses an explosive element that was missing from this team will help reinvent this offense. And it is not only the receivers that are deep as they also feature a pair of tight ends that should produce top end numbers between the two. Zach Ertz is still rehabbing a knee tear but is expected to return fairly early in the season and we all know what to expect from the proven veteran, but it is the second year tight end Trey McBride who provides the most intrigue. Taken in the second round of the 2022 draft, McBride was touted as the top tight end in last year's class putting up college tape that made him look like this generation's Gronk. While it usually takes 2-3 seasons for a tight end to be fully integrated into an offense, McBride will flash when he finally gets his training wheels off and folks around Arizona sure hope this is the year for the young tight end. While a healthy Kyler Murray is definitely the driving force of this team, no matter who is at QB, they will have every opportunity to succeed in this stacked offense.

Weaknesses: While the Cardinals offense looks to have the makings of a very functional unit, they will have their heavy lifting cut out for them as the offense will find itself in a lot of shootouts due to the issues that plague this defense. The defense is a mess to put it simply. Aside from Budda Baker patrolling the secondary and Isaiah Simmons locking down the slot, there is a lot left to desire from this unit. They lost a solid defender with the Hall of Famer JJ Watt retiring and replaced him with two subpar veterans in Collier and Watkins. The lack of defensive line talent will be the team's most glaring deficiency as they lack both a reliable run stopper and pass rusher giving opposing coaches and QBs all the time and space to tear this defense apart. But their line is not the sole liability of this defense as they do not have anything close to a lockdown corner which is much needed in a division full of star receivers. While Baker and Simmons can patrol a lot of space, the corners will be sure to force those two to be the hardest working players on the field.

Under the Radar X-Factor: After years of doing whatever he could to make an NFL roster over the first few years of his career, Greg Dortch seems to finally have found a home in Arizona. Dortch probably thought he was always destined for special teams work. While he is still a big time special teams contributor being the team's kick and punt returner, Dortch has shown he can be a comfortable safety blanket for the team. The slot receiver has the ability to maximize space in the flat, providing whoever ends up spending the majority of the time at QB with a reliable fallback option who has the ability to occasionally hit a home run with a dump off. 

Verdict: This team is going to score a lot of points, but the lack of a defensive identity and growing pains of a new regime taking over will lead to a season where fans will be wanting more than they are going to get out of this team. 6-9 Wins.

Los Angeles Rams

Strengths: Two years removed from winning a Super Bowl, the skeleton that won them that championship is still in place but there is not much meat on the bones. If this team succeeds it is going to be on the back of the Stafford-Kupp connection. The duo missed a bunch of games last year due to injury so the losing record from a year ago made sense. When these two are on the field together and operating at full speed there are not two players who can read each other's minds better than them. In their only full season together, they broke records as Kupp posted a 145/1947/16 stat line and set the league ablaze. As long as this duo is playing together this team will at least be competitive. In order to ensure Stafford and Kupp stay productive and healthy, the team enlists a solid offensive lineman combination. While Joe Noteboom is still developing as a player and struggled early last season, he showed great progress in his development as the season went on so if he continues his development he should become a strong option at tackle. On the other side, Rob Havenstein has proven he can handle most pass rushers and is able to reliably do his job. One of the biggest questions along the line is the team's top pick, Steve Avila. Taken in the second round, Avila is a strong brute of a man but lacks the athleticism to win his pass blocks on a consistent basis at least in the beginning of his career. Even if Avila is not quite ready to be an above average guard, the talent around him should help balance this out and make a strong unit overall. As long as the Stafford-Kupp connection proves healthy and competent this will be a team that can score with the best of them.

Weaknesses: Looking at this roster there are two parts of this roster that will be huge holes. The first one lacks high end draft capital and talent which is the secondary. Nickelback Cobie Durant is a serviceable option who will be able to do his job on most snaps but the rest of the secondary lacks the ability compete on a play to play basis with three of their starters being sixth round picks or later and the other being Steeler sendoff Ahkello Witherspoon who constantly looked lost in coverage. This team is going to be passed on a lot and the team's only hope in fixing this problem is getting a career year out of Aaron Donald to limit the team's time to get burnt deep.  The other glaring hole is the special teams core as it lacks any kind of experience. The team's kicker, punter and long snapper are all rookies with the latter two being undrafted free agents. If you have watched football long enough you know most rookies come with a lot of mistakes but mistakes at these crucial positions can lead to lost points as well as easy points for the other team. These two holes will lead to a lot of headaches for Sean McVay, let's just hope the offense can overcome these issues.

Under the Radar X-Factor: Odell's departure following the team's Super Bowl led to a void behind Kupp on the depth chart but in the 5th round this year the team looks to have found a steal and the missing piece of the puzzle. Puka Nacua is lightning in a bottle and he is just waiting to be unleashed. The rookie out of BYU has been a prolific playmaker throughout his career averaging 16.3 YPC and 9.2 when he would run the ball. Nacua seems like McVay's dream tool as he was used in basically every way possible in his college career and was productive no matter where he lined up on the field. He has great speed and can run crisp routes so you know McVay is going to get very creative with his deployment. The only downside to Nacua is his lack of durability as he struggled with a number of lagging injuries during his college careers, but when he is healthy expect to see big plays out him as the perfect compliment to Cooper Kupp.

Verdict: The holes on this team are glaring and if the rest of the team does not play up to their ability, this will be a long year for the team. There is high variability in this team due to a lack of consistent talent across the roster. 5-10 Wins.

San Francisco 49ers

Strengths: When looking at this team it is obvious it is stacked at almost every level of the game. They have the best running back in the past 10 years in CMC. They have the highest graded defensive player who still has not quite reached his prime in Nick Bosa. They have the most consistent offensive tackle since Joe Thomas in Trent Williams. They have one of the best two way backers in the league in Fred Warner. Their pass catching has three players who could be All Pro although Brandon Aiyuk has not been named as one yet. Like I said this team is stacked at nearly every level and transition of the game. But even with all this talent, the niners would not be the great team they are without the man in charge. Kyle Shanahan is an offensive mastermind, he knows how to get his star players free leading to multiple broken coverages a game making even a mediocre quarterback like Brock Purdy look like the second coming of Tom Brady. This is a good squad but it is a great team with Kyle Shanahan at the helm.

Weaknesses: Even with all the strengths throughout this roster, there are some key departures that may end up turning into big holes. Two of the biggest departures are Mike McGlinchey and Daniel Brunskill, ushering in a new era on the right side of the offensive line. The team is trying to fill these departures with two in-house options in Spencer Burford and Colton McKivitiz. Spencer Burford did start a lot of games last year but struggled to win on a consistent basis as PFF gave him a below average grade of 49.6. Keep in mind though that it was Burford's rookie year so it would be expected he would make mistakes, hopefully he has learned a lot and is ready to act as an anchor on the right side of the line. Colton McKivitz lacks enough real experience to know much about his ability as a yearlong starter. While he has looked competent in his sparse playing time, there is a reason he spent a lot of time going between the practice and active roster so he has far from proven he is ready for the spotlight. But no team has a completely impeccable roster so for the right side of the line being their only real glaring weakness speaks strongly for the potential for success this year.

Under the Radar X-Factor: Robbie Gould had been the best kicker of the past decade not named Justin Tucker, but the Goulden days are behind the niners. Replacing Gould was one of the team's offseason priorities and they hit a homerun by snagging the best kicker in the draft in Jake Moody out of Michigan. Moody is as solid of a kicking prospect as there has been in recent years. He is crazy accurate under 50 yards and he gets the ball out quick with just one of his kicks getting blocked. While he does not have the biggest leg out there he can work on and develop that. For a team that will be moving the ball in the opponent's half often this is a very important position for the team so Moody better live up to his pedigree to make moving on from Gould worthwhile.

Verdict: San Francisco better get ready for some January football. 11+ Wins.

Seattle Seahawks

Strengths: A playoff team from a year ago, the Seahawks return largely the same team while reuniting with the talented backer Bobby Wagner. There is a trend in this division, a strong group of pass catchers and the Seahawks are no different. Bringing back the Athletic freak DK Metcalf and the ever productive Tyler Lockett, the duo on their own forms a formidable duo but then they drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba was the top receiver in this class, he has elite route running ability as well as a big enough frame to be able to hang with the most physical corners in the league. I think given the talent that JSN has it is only a matter of time until Lockett moves into the number 3 spot on the pecking order which just shows the amount of talent residing in that receiver room. Another trend in this division is the improving offensive lines but none of the other teams compare to the trajectory that the Seahawks' tackles are on. Their top pick from a year ago, Charles Cross, was competent but most of his mistakes seemed to come as a result of the mental side of his game instead of the physical side. He has great feet and strong hands so once all mental aspects click, which should happen sooner rather than later, Cross should play up to that pedigree that made him a top 10 pick. While Cross is looking like a solid pick from last year's draft, he does not compare to the value that the team got in Lucas Abraham in the third round. Lucas Abraham stepped into the starting role opposite Cross and looked ready from day 1 handling his own in both the passing and running game. The Seahawks have as much talent in their skill positions and tackles as any other team but there still are question marks that might hold this offense back.

Weaknesses: I know Geno Smith took this team to the playoffs, but I still am not convinced. I want to believe, he led the league in completion percentage after all but I just can't. Geno has played in the NFL for almost 9 years now with multiple other years as a starter yet his passing yard from last year nearly count for 40% of his career passing yards. That sounds like the making of a fluke rather than indications of a new trend. When you also look at the year before last, Smith started 3 games for nearly the same offense and went 1-2 struggling mightily to maintain consistent offensive output. So I am ready to be proved wrong but I just do not think Geno Smith has it in him to do it again while this is an overall strong roster with a lot of talent but also its fair share of weaknesses but those strengths and those weaknesses will not matter if Geno Smith declines at all from last year which almost seems inevitable unless I am missing something.

Under the Radar X-Factor: Olu Oluwatimi may prove to be one of the biggest steals of the draft. The center was taken in the fifth round but he had the production of day 2 draft pick in college anchoring Michigan's line. Oluwatimi has the strength and power to move even the biggest interior defenders off the line. He does lack elite level athleticism so stunts could give him some issues early in his career. The Seahawks brought in Evan Brown to take over the center position but he is more of a guard by trade so if Oluwatimi has a strong training camp do not be surprised if Brown gets pushed to guard to replace Haynes and Oluwatimi is a starter from his first game. 

Verdict: As I said, I just can't buy the Geno hype which will be the downfall of this team. 5-8 Wins.