NFC North Preview

 NFC North Preview

The NFC North is an interesting division as three of the four teams find themselves in between rebuilding and contending but this could be the the year that any of the three make the leap into contention but they will need a few players to make big leaps in order for that to happen. The division features a lighter schedule getting to play the weak NFC South as well as the decent AFC West. There is no truly elite team in this division but do not be surprised if two teams end up making the postseason from this group.

 

Chicago Bears

Strengths: For a team that just finished 3-14 a year ago, fans surprisingly seem more excited than pessimistic about this upcoming season. That buzz and excitement boils down to one player in general, Justin Fields. Fields burst onto the scene as a legitimate home run threat. Fields was making the NFL look like backyard football, running around in the backfield for 5 seconds avoiding pass rushers before finally finding a seam and darting up the field for major yardage on the ground. Just look at his stats he led the league in YPC with 7.1 and finished 7th in the league with 1,143 total rushing yards on far carries yards than every other player near him. He truly is elite with the ball in his hands as he is joined by elite company in explosive plays, Fields lead the lead in both 20+ and 40+ yard runs with the only other player joining him in this feat being the league's best pure runner Derrick Henry. The team did lose their lead rusher from a year ago, David Montgomery, but the running backs still will be a strong group. Led by Khalil Herbert, the Bears backfield will be relied on heavily and Herbert seems ready to seize the lead role. Across 232 career attempts Herbert sports a stellar 5.0 YPC and 1,164 total rushing yards. Well the only true known strength of this team is the run game as they will undoubtedly finish top 5 in run game but beyond that there are no units of this team to point to with confidence. The weakest part of this team from a year ago may have turned into a strength over the offseason, the front seven was abysmal a year ago finishing as the second worst run defense a year ago only behind the lowly Texans. Over the offseason the team made it obvious that addressing this issue was a top priority. Aside from the burgeoning Jack Sanborn and veteran Justin Jones, this is an entirely new unit. The linebacking unit should be solid as they brought in seasoned veterans Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards both of whom played major roles on solid defensive units. The D line is a bit of a question mark as they brought in some veterans who used to be prolific like Yannick Ngakoue and the rest of the unit has been solid role players in their career but will need to take a major step forward in order for this unit to be good. The front seven has undoubtedly improved and will no longer be a free 5 yards when opponents run the ball.

Weaknesses: I know I just spent a good amount of the strengths hyping up Justin Fields, but in no way was that me saying he is a complete player ready to be a superstar. Fields' inability to find a consistent passing game has led to a major weakness for this team. For how good of a rusher Fields is, he is almost equally poor at passing. The team finished with paltry 130.5 passing yards per game. Yikes. The NFL is a passing league, all the top offenses are built on their ability to open up an offense and gain big yards through the air. The team did bring in one of the best, young, pure receivers in the league by acquiring DJ Moore and Fields is just 24 heading into only his third NFL season so there could be major growth in this department in the coming season. Due to the lack of a rush defense from a year ago, the pass defense's deficiencies were hidden and now that there should be some sort of rush defense the pass defense will be heavily targeted and exposed this season. Aside from Eddie Jackson manning the defensive backfield, the team does not have anyone who can competently keep up with NFL receivers so I am sorry Chicago fans but get ready for this team to get diced up through the air.

Under the Radar X-Factor: Although the secondary is expected to be poor, they do have one question marek in corner Tyrique Stevenson. Stevenson has all the size to be able to match up with the NFL's big bodied receivers while possessing enough speed to not get lost in coverage. Stevenson's pure athleticism should make him a solid man corner but in college and so far in training camp he seems to be behind the curve in learning what it takes to be an NFL corner. The corner got caught cheating when playing off the ball in zone leading to blown coverage and also struggled with switches while in zone. If Stevenson can learn the ins and outs of their defensive scheme, he could turn into a strong contributor for the team but until he gets over the learning curve he will only be a liability for the team.

Verdict: I just do not know if Fields' ability to find free yards will remain a consistent tool. Will he fall the ways of Terrelle Pryor and Colin Kaepernick by having his running game completely game planned away by the opposing defensive coordinator forcing them to rely on their poor passing abilities or is he the next Mike Vick. I think the lack of passing attack will really hurt this team. 5-7 Wins.

Detroit Lions

Strengths: This Lions team turned the corner a bit a year ago, finishing 9-8 and just missing the playoffs. The team's biggest strength was seen in their final game last year; after already being eliminated from the playoffs, the Lions traveled to Lambeau to play the Packers with their rival's playoff hopes on the line. Instead of rolling over and giving the Packers a free pass to the playoffs to keep the team healthy going into the offseason and give some young players a shot, HC Dan Campbell had this team fired up like it was a playoff game leading to an upset win, prematurely ending the Rodgers era in Green Bay. This constant pride and desire to win the game perfectly sums up the identity of this team. Sure on paper this is mostly a subpar team but Campbell has instilled a confidence in this team that keeps them fighting until the last whistle regardless of the score or opponent leading to a good product for Detroit fans on any given Sunday. This Lions team is not just good spirits and good times though as their skill players on the offensive side of the ball are a very solid group. It starts with Amon-Ra St. Brown. Brown has established himself as a top 5 receiver in this league with his elite route running. Brown consistently finds space underneath while occasionally taking the top off the defense. The rest of the playmakers are a bit of a question mark as they have three youngsters who are yet to prove themselves but on paper they look to have the ability to launch this team into one of the top offenses. Jameson Williams was the team's first round pick from a year ago after being the most dynamic player in all of college football the season prior. While Williams only played a limited number of snaps a year ago as he recovered from major knee surgery, he still showed the ability to be one of the top receivers in this league once fully integrated, unfortunately for Detroit fans that full integration will be delayed even longer due to Williams being suspended for gambling. The Lions finished the offensive overhaul in the draft by taking Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta. Gibbs looks like a young Alvin Kamara flashing the ability to flash both a pass catcher and running inside the tackles. LaPorta continues the traditions of Tight End U as he was a solid contributor as Iowa and should play significant roles as both a blocker and pass catchers playing like a young George Kittle. With a stacked offense and a can't lose mentality this will be a competitive team.

Weaknesses: After hyping up the offense, I would not give my full stamp of approval on the unit due to the lack of elite play from Jared Goff. Goff should be an NFL starter since he is definitely one of the best 32 QBs in the world, but he just lacks that it factor. He cannot produce on a consistent enough basis to keep this team in games against the titans of this league like the Eagles or the Chiefs which inherently limits the up side of this team. But he and this offense will definitely be productive, but will it be enough to erase the team's biggest weakness, the defense. This defense was an absolute mess a year ago, finished in the bottom 5 against both the pass and the run. The team did bring in a new set of corners and spent a first round pick on LB Jack Campbell to pair with star Aidan Hutchinson. Sure those additions will help but they will come nowhere close to erasing the holes that surround them. This defense will once again be a problem and will only limit this offense and team from making the jump into being a contender.

Under the Radar X-Factor: This X-Factor will have absolutely no impact on this coming season but he could potentially be the savior for this franchise. Hendon Hooker is an older QB prospect who is coming off a major knee injury leading the team to snag him in the third round even though he has franchise altering talent. With Hooker at the helm, Tennessee was launched into the national spotlight with the potential to seize a national championship but Hooker got hurt and the team crumbled. Now Hooker finds himself in a great situation where he can sit and learn for a year and once he is healthy he will be given a chance to run this offense with all the stars around him leading the Lions to be a potential offensive juggernaut, but until then he needs to be ready to learn.

Verdict: When tuning into a Lions game expect a entertaining, hard fought, high scoring game regardless of their opponent but until this team gets more weapons on the defensive side of the ball do not expect them to get over that final hump into contention. 7-9 Wins.

Green Bay Packers

Strengths: One word comes to mind when looking over the 2023 Packers, transitional. The Rodgers era is over but the team is prepared and has an in house replacement in Jordan Love. Love has been growing in the Packers organization for a few years now after being selected in the first round to be Rodgers' replacement. Since Love is home grown, this team and offense will not see a complete change in identity as Love looks to continue the path Rodgers laid out for him. The offense will obviously be simplified a bit as Love is not nearly the signal caller that Rodgers was but Love can always rely on the two headed monster that makes up their running game. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will split the backfield and they are the exact thunder and lightning combo that NFL GMs dream of. Jones has long been a top 10 RB in this league, displaying vision and burst while also being one of the Packers biggest assets in the passing game. AJ Dillon has been an up and coming player for a couple years now but 2023 seems like the year he is finally destined to pop. Dillon has power and agility allowing him to run through the biggest of interior lineman and break the ankles of the surest tackling safety. The team will be running much more than the Packers have been over the past 30 years in order to take some of the load off of Love's shoulders so expect both Jones and Dillon to have big years. Making the run game the emphasis of this team is also an obvious next step thanks to their stout offensive line. Besides RT Zach Tom who is still getting adjusted and settling into being an NFL player, this unit has been playing together for years and forms one of the most formidable run and pass blocking lines the NFL has to offer. The team should once again be a top 5 line giving Love and the RBs all the tools necessary to succeed this year. With the talent this team features on the offensive side, their best player plays defense. Jaire Alexander has established himself as one of the best cover corners in the league, in a division that features Amon-Ra St. Brown and Justin Jefferson it is essential that any team that wants to compete has a corner like Alexander so teams cannot play pitch and catch with those top receivers. 

Weaknesses: Even with a top corner like Jaire Alexander, the Packer defense still leaves a lot to be desired. Start with the D line. There is no reliable consistent pass rush. Preston Smith has been able to live up to the pressure of being the team's primary pass rusher. Since Za'Darius Smith left the team leaving Preston Smith the main point of emphasis for opposing O lines, Preston has failed to find a consistent pass rush failing to top the 10 sack plateau. The team has some hope in Rashan Gary who has been able to win against opposing tackles but he still has a lot to prove and he is fully healthy after struggling with health a year ago. The linebacking core is decent at least but they struggle with discipline. De'Vondre Campbell is okay against both the run and pass but does not offer high end production against either, leading the talented offenses to leave him in the dust. Quay Walker is the other half of the linebacking duo. As last year's top draft pick, he did live up to some of the hype making big, athletic, splash plays but all too often his lack of discipline really hurt the team. First he was quick to abandon his assignment trying to make a play leaving the cutback wide open leading to home run plays for opponents, but more importantly Walker does not know how to play to the whistle and gets worked up too easily leading him to get penalized to the point where he got disqualified in two separate games a year ago and almost did again in a third making him a huge liability. But beyond all this it is their liability on the back end that is their biggest weakness. Darnell Savage has shown potential a couple times during his career, but last year he lost a step and it is obvious he has not made up for it. Working as a strong safety, Savage no longer flies around to make game changing tackles in the running game and can no longer handle tight ends and running backs leaving him to complementary roles in this defense. Even in this lesser role however, Savage has failed to consistently produce, adding just another hole to this Swiss Cheese of a defense.

Under the Radar X-Factor: One of the biggest question marks for this team is the tight end position. After their two top ends left for Chicago, Green Bay decided to try to address this issue during the draft bringing in two rookie tight ends, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft both of whom fit the exact profile the Packers seem to look for favoring blocking over receiving as both can run block as good as your average tackle. But if either can develop into a reliable receiver they could be the final piece of the puzzle that makes the passing game take off as every young developing QB needs a solid, safety blanket in a tight end to give him a reliable outlet when all else breaks down. Expect more from Musgrave than Kraft, but do not expect either to be the next Antonio Gates.

Verdict: Have the Packers found their 4th face to put on their QB Mt. Rushmore? I am not convinced but if he is, it most likely will not be this year that proves it as there will be too much pressure on the young QB expect a seamless transition. 7-9 Wins.

Minnesota Vikings

Strengths: Since Kevin O'Connell took over the team a year ago, the team's main strength is the team's offense. It starts and stops with Justin Jefferson who has now eclipsed every other receiver in the league and ascended to become the undebatable top receiver in the league. He is fast, he can run every single route in the game and no matter how physical a corner is they cannot get him off of his line. He will once again be heavily featured and finish amongst the league's elite in every single receiving category. Even while featuring the team's top receiver, this team has many more pass catchers to feature. They also have one of the league's top tight ends in TJ Hockenson. Brought over in a midseason trade, the Vikings seemed to have unlocked the potential that made the Lions draft him 8th overall. Following his acquisition, Hockenson totalled 519 yards and proved to be one of Kirk's favorite targets. This is not the same offense that the Vikings rode to a playoff appearance with longtime starting RB Dalvin Cook followed Aaron Rodgers to New York. Even though they lost a long time starter, the Vikings had a longtime backup who seemed primed and chomping at the bit to get his chance in Alexander Mattison. Well his chance has come and you know he will make the most of it because in the games where Mattison replaced an injured Cook, Mattison was equally dominant totaling 100+ total yards in 4 of those 6 games so expect very little drop off in the RB production even with the loss of a star like Dalvin Cook. Keeping the engine running, the team also features a great pair of offensive tackles. Brian O'Neill is the veteran of the two while he is not quite elite due to the lack of movement he gets in the run game, he is as solid of a pass blocker as it gets which has allowed him to anchor the right side of the line for years now. The true star of this line is the LT Christian Darrisaw. It is crazy to think he is heading into just the third year of his career and can still get even better since he posted an elite 90.3 PFF grade in just his second year in the league. This offense has it all so you can rest assured that when you are sitting down to watch a Vikings game this year, you will see fireworks on the offensive side of the ball.

Weaknesses: With such a stout offense, you would assume that this team is a sure fire title contender. Well not so fast, because if you have watched the Vikings at all over recent years you will see a worrying trend in this defense and that is a secondary that constantly gets shelled on a week to week basis regardless of opponent. The team decided it was time for a changing of the guards at corner but they are relying on two very young corners who both are physically gifted but both lack enough experience to be able to confidently say they will be an upgrade from the disaster from a year ago. So I guess it may be a little too premature to call the corners an overt weakness but they will definitely have to prove their worth in the league quickly because they will be attacked early and often by opposing offensive coordinators. While the corners are a glaring obvious weakness, the next weakness may not be as clear of one. Kirk Cousins has been nothing but productive since coming over to Minnesota, but those numbers are a mirage. Cousins produces more than an average QB and he carries an impressive 46-33-1 record with the team, but even with all that production he is holding this team back. We outlined how talented this offensive roster is and it is not a new thing during the entirety of Kirk's tenure with the team he has always had one or two solid pass catchers and a great running game to rely on but the team still has not been able to get over the hump that separates playoff bound teams from Super Bowl bound teams. Cousins' mediocrity boils down to his conservative play nature as he reads plays instead of just making plays. In the clutch moments Kirk will always take the open underneath receiver even when a big play is needed and the ball needs to be forced down the field. Instead of trying to win games it seems like Kirk's main goal is just not to be the reason the team lost, which when on a complete team can lead to a lot of wins but with holes like the Vikings have defense, the team needs someone bold enough to make the plays that need to happen and until they get that they will never be more than a pretender.

Under the Radar X-Factor: Arguably the biggest loss for this team over the offseason was the departure of Eric Kendricks. His hair falling out of the back of his helmet while he flew around making plays was the hallmark of this defense for much of the past decade. The team seems ready for this transition at inside linebacker with two young players who have both been showing in camp they are ready to step up. Second year backer Brian Asamoah is one of the most athletic inside backers in the league since he has wide receiver speed making him a coverage ace, but he is small and light making him a liability in the run game due to his inability to shed blocks. Where Asamoah might fail, undrafted rookie Ivan Pace will shine. Pace has been the story of camp as he came out of nowhere with no expectations to there now being rumblings of him being a week 1 starter. While Pace is not quite ready to be fully integrated into this defense, he should form a healthy rotation with Brian Asamoah and veteran Jordan Hicks that will make the loss of Eric Kendricks much more manageable. 

Verdict: This is a strong team but the lack of elite play from the QB position will limit the team when it matters most so expect them to win the division but not much else. 9+ Wins.