AFC West Preview

 AFC West Preview

We are going to keep it on the West Coast this week and hit the AFC West. This is a grab bag of a division as it has everything you can expect. An elite team, a trash team, a wild card team with high expectations and another wild card with low expectations. As a whole this division plays a schedule on the harder side taking on the middle class NFC North and the stacked AFC East. Let's be honest and say we all know the Chiefs are winning the division but beyond that this division will still provide some intrigue as it features enough talent to feature at least one more playoff team with the possibility for two. 

Denver Broncos

Strengths: In a season where the franchise felt like they finally found the missing piece to their puzzle, last year's acquisition of Russell Wilson led the Broncos to be seen as the big winners of the 2022 offseason leading to skyrocketing expectations for the team. Well things did not really work out as Nathaniel Hackett proved to be a hack leading to a midseason dismissal and a 5-12 last placed finish for the team. Well an offseason later the team made one big acquisition that has made this team a wild card, the signing of Hall of Fame coach Sean Payton. Looking at the regime change, I do not think this organization could have made a better move. This team lost a heartbreaking 9 one possession games last year so you would have to assume the lack of competent coaching played a big role in those failures now image if they not only had competent coaching but one of the best coaches of this century at the helm. It is hard for the average fan to ignore the team's disappointing 5-12 season from a year ago leading to low expectations and a lack of respect for this team, but I am here to right those wrongs. Thanks to a season and a half of lackluster football and posting cringe on main, most people have given up on Russell Wilson. But even with that negative public image, Wilson has still not had a season under 3000 passing yards and he has now teamed up with Payton who worked his magic to squeeze every last drop of competitive football out of Drew Brees keeping that Saints team competitive long past its prime. The team and Russell will also benefit greatly from their stacked group of pass catchers. It starts with their main two receivers, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Sutton failed to live up to his high expectations last year because his ability to win jump balls paired with Wilson's ability to throw pinpoint passes down the sideline seemed like a match made in heaven but then they never developed chemistry. The dude still had 829 yards last year, the second most of his career. Even with Wilson's lackluster performance, the team's other receiver Jerry Jeudy had a career year setting career highs in catches, yards and TDs; so expect this pairing to once again be busy and productive. Those two are not the end of their stacked pass catchers as they have a couple of young playmakers TE Greg Dulcich and RB Javonte Williams who were limited by injury and lack of opportunity that will now be fully integrated taking this passing game to the next level. This offense has the talent and coaching to take it to be great and if everything falls in place perfectly they should be able to compete with any team.

Weaknesses: While coaching takes a lot of the blame for the woes from a year ago, the offensive line was also a big pitfall for the team. Garrett Bolles provided decent play out of the left tackle position but the rest of the line was very inconsistent. They struggled in both phases of the offense as the other 4 starting lineman all ranked below average on PFF in both pass and run blocking. Now the jury is still out on this unit as they made two big additions in Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers both coming from strong units but neither were the anchor of those lines so they still have to prove they meld into a cohesive unit. But if the line fits nicely then this offense and team should be unstoppable right? Well no not exactly, the defense still has a lot to prove. One move I did not like from last year was trading Bradley Chubb. I know after seeing the writing on the wall and realizing the team traded away a top 5 pick, the team felt like it needed to recoup some draft capital, but the team did not get nearly enough value back in the trade leaving a glaring hole in the pass rush. The team tried to fix the issue by signing Randy Gregory but he does not seem to be the right sized cork to fit that hole. The team only features one player who has even come close to 10 sacks in a season and that is the aging Frank Clark who is at best a rotational player at this point of his career. This issue is going to be a big issue when they take on the prolific passers they will face in and out of their division. The team does have a strong secondary but they cannot hold forever leading to a lot of passing yards being available for the taking. This defense will definitely take a step back from last year so the offense will have to pick up the slack for this team to be competitive.

Under the Radar X-Factor: Going into training camp, the team filled to the brim with receiver talent as they had the highlighted weapons above as well as proven veterans Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler. Following a horrible set of circumstances, Hamler and Patrick have been lost for the year leading to an opening at the WR3. In walks rookie Marvin Mims. This dude is small and fast and you know who he reminds me a lot of? Tyler Lockett. We know the prolific numbers Wilson and Lockett put together and Mims has all those same tools: he can run all the underneath routes while still being able to take the top off of a defense. This pairing seems like a match made in heaven for both Russell Wilson and Marvin Mims and I would not be surprised if Mims ends up being the most productive rookie receiver this year.

Verdict: If everything clicks this is a playoff team but that is a big if, leading to a wide range of outcomes. 5-11 Wins.

Kansas City Chiefs

Strengths: What do I need to stay here, we all know who Patrick Mahomes is and we all know what he does. He is 64-16 as a starter. He has 24,241 yards passing while throwing 192 TDs. He has done this all and he is still years away from 30. He can carry just about any roster to a win. He is undeniably the top player in the league and he only becomes deadlier when he is paired with the top tight end in the league Travis Kelce. With Mahomes at running the offense, Kelce has averaged 100+ receptions, 1,289 yards and 9 TDs; stats like that are good enough to compete with the top receivers in the league. The rest of the Chiefs pass catchers have less notable names than the Island of Misfit Toys, but each one will have their game to shine leading to an amalgamation of a competent set of receivers. This offense will always be the heart and soul of this team, but it is not their only strong suit as they also have a solid defensive line. Chris Jones is the star of this defense. He is a PFF darling grading out at an absurd 92.0, he is a rock solid run defender while destroying the pocket with a killer interior pass rush. He will always occupy two offensive lineman giving one on one matchups for the rest of the line. While the rest of the line does not have the elite talent that Chris Jones possesses, the ability to constantly have one on one matchups will lead to all those other lineman playing better than they normally would have in any other system. The Chiefs are the reigning champions so they are obviously a team that has way more strengths than weaknesses but Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones are the motors that make this team go.

Weaknesses: I gotta be honest here, there is not going to be a lot of weaknesses to list; while there is not much high end talent on this roster beyond Mahomes, Kelce, and Jones, the rest of the roster are very solid role players who do a great job at completing their assignments leading to very few holes. One of the biggest holes that was identified above was the lack of experience and production in the receiver room. The team lost their most prolific receiver from a year ago when Juju left for the Pats and their biggest name left in the room, Kadarius Toney, needed knee surgery just ten minutes into the first practice of training camp, another injury that is starting to look more like a trend instead of bad luck. The rest of the receivers are a bunch of unproven first and second year pass catchers and Justin Watson. While this definitely looks like a problem on paper, Mahomes will be able to lift these guys up and find whoever is able to work their way open. Overall, it is hard to point out many more holes on this team as every level of the game has a solid starter, which is why this team is a Super Bowl favorite.

Under the Radar X-Factor: A solution to the team's biggest need may already be in the building. Rashee Rice may be the receiver that the Chiefs have been looking for since Tyreek Hill left. While he has a completely different play style to Hill, he still has a play style that will pair nicely with Mahomes. He will work on the outside using his big frame to maximize his ability to lengthen the sideline giving the already deadly Mahomes and even bigger window to throw to. Even before being able to pair up with Mahomes, Rice has maximized the play of his QB throughout his time in college being a consistent chain mover with a 13.4 YPC and making for a great redzone target as he is able to boxout smaller corners. While there will undoubtedly be a learning curve as he adjusts to pro play, Rice is a big candidate to be a difference maker on this offense.

Verdict: This team is an absolute juggernaut. 12+ Wins.

Los Angeles Chargers

Strengths: While the heartbreak of the Chargers' final loss clouds how fans view last season, the team had a solid year. The team went 10-7 but 5 of those losses were to future playoff teams and the other two were against division rival Raiders and Broncos. The team has both a solid offense and defense allowing them to compete with basically any team. When evaluating the offense, it starts and stops with Justin Herbert. Herbert is entering his 4th season in the league and he has been great so far, but he may be ready to finally make the jump to the elite class of quarterbacks as he has all the physical tools and has the talent around him. Herbert has every weapon in his arsenal. He has the long range weapon in Mike Williams. He has the short range in Austin Ekeler. He has the in between with Keenan Allen. And even with all these tools, the organization did not think it was enough leading them to draft Quentin Johnston in the first round. Johnston is a stick of dynamite. He almost single handedly carried TCU to the national championship. He would get the quick passes when the corner was lined up off the ball and would make a man miss and take it to the house making it look routine. When he would get pressed he would bully them off the line and beat them deep. He can literally do it all, but there is a lot of competition for targets so it may take a while to get fully involved in the offense. Once he gets in there on a consistent basis he will elevate this offense. The offense is definitely the focal point of this team but in the AFC and the AFC West particularly the Chargers need something to counter those other strong passing attacks. While it is not a completely impeccable group, the secondary is that tool that can counter those offenses. It starts with Derwin James, who when healthy can absolutely terrorize both opposing quarterbacks and running backs. He plays at a million miles an hour and can match up against anyone who tries to challenge him in the middle of the field. With the middle of the field covered, the outside may seem vulnerable but a youngster who is turning into seasoned veteran, Asante Samuel, seems up to the task. Samuel is a little small and can get bodied by bigger receivers, but he makes up for the lack of size by staying on his opponents hips and reading plays like he was the one who called them. Micahel Davis has grown into a solid player who can hold his own against most teams' WR2. The only issue with the secondary is Alohi Gilman patrolling the back end since he gets caught flat footed at times but the strength of the rest of the defense makes up for any minor issues. This is a talented team nonetheless and will be in contention down the stretch regardless of any hurdles.

Weaknesses: This is a very sound team when you look at its roster construction. The team has a franchise QB with talent around him. They have talent on both the frontend and the backend of the defense. With all that talent there are still two big problems that continually plague this team. First is the injuries. I cannot remember a year where the team did not lose multiple star players. Their receiving core rarely ever plays  together making the addition of Johnston and even bigger boon. Their secondary is always dealing with something too as their main guy Derwin James is yet to play a full season in his 5 years in the league. It has gotten to a point where it can no longer be coincidental; it has to be systemic. This is the team whose training staff made their starting QB miss the game because they improperly performed a pregame injection. The team needs to do everything in their power to fix this issue. Heck they might want to even consider giving up mainstream treatment and try holistic medicine because it is impossible for it to get any worse than it has been with this squad. The other big problem with this team may sound ridiculous but it has been a problem for my entire life and it is their luck. The team has been so close to the pinnacle of success but it always seems to slip through their fingers at the last minute. Whether it be their epic collapse against the Jags a year ago, or them coming up short against the Raiders to just miss the playoffs when they seemed like they were seconds away from securing a tie and making the playoffs, this team just cannot win when it matters. I may have been a little hyperbolic when I called this bad luck as these types of losses can be attributed to bad coaching and that does seem to be a real issue. Although Brandon Staley looks successful on paper with his winning record and potent offense, he has crumbled when it mattered. This is a make or break season for Staley because if the team does not live up to its lofty expectations, Staley's head is on the line.

Under the Radar X-Factor: With 8:47 left in the game Cameron Dicker lined up to attempt a 40 yard kick to put the Chargers up 13 against the Jaguars. The ball is snapped and Dicker kicks it. He hooked it wide left, giving the Jags the ball back in great field position and sapped the Chargers of any momentum the team was clinging onto. As we all know the Chargers lost this game by 1 completing a 27 point comeback. How much space will that kick hold in Dicker's mind? Dicker is a young kicker who had never latched onto a team before the Chargers but once with the Chargers he was nearly perfect. His success with the team likely lead to sky high confidence for the youngster, but the fact that the game altering missed kick was his last attempt of the year and he has had to sit on it for months is a reason for concern. Will he be a headcase? He has no competition in camp so the team is fully invested in him. The team could live or die by Dicker's leg because they have some tough games this year and will need every point they can get.

Verdict: This team is too good to completely bomb but I just feel the luck/coaching will rear it ugly head and this team will once again lose when it matters most. 8-11 Wins.

Oakland Raiders

Strengths: Welcome to the valley. This is not a team anywhere close to the peaks of Kansas City with this year being the first that the team has fully embraced the rebuild. The team is hoping for a quick rebuild though as they kept some high end talent around. The best player on the roster is undoubtedly their star receiver Davante Adams. He has been named to three all pro teams in a row and you can basically pencil him in for 90 YPG. The other big name of the offense is Josh Jacobs who they kept around on the franchise tag because Josh McDaniels loves him. I guarantee you will be seeing Jacobs with the ball in his hands early and often as the first year they were together Jacobs set a new career high in carries beating his previous high by almost 70 while also tying a career high in targets.  If there is one thing to look forward to with this team it will be the big numbers these two put up this year. The final big name of this squad is Maxx Crosby. Crosby has been one of the top edges in the league for a couple years now. He is probably the most balanced edge player in the league as he might not have the pass rush that Nick Bosa has, Crosby is probably the best edge against the run highlighted by his league leading 22 TFL from a year ago. It is a shame that these players have to waste a year of their prime on a team that does not seem ready to compete as a whole unit.

Weaknesses: Even while having one of the best defensive players in the league, last year's defense was one of the worst in the league. The pass defense was the main culprit of this issue as they consistently got beat. The top offseason objective seemed to be addressing this problem. The team brought in 3 new starters in its secondary with the top name being Marcus Peters. Even with these additions, the front office did not fix the main problem which was the linebacking core as they would routinely get beat by tight ends and running backs out of the back field. This gaping hole was highlighted during last year's 24-0 loss to the Saints where Alvin Kamara burned them for 96 receiving yards and three total scores. With the lack of a connection between the star Maxx Crosby and their okay secondary, expect this defense to be one of the worst defenses in the league. If the defense was not a big enough issue for you to lose all faith then look no further than the QB. The team moved on from longtime starter Derek Carr bringing in Jimmy Garappolo to try and keep the team afloat. While Jimmy G has a great winning record and been to a super bowl, Jimmy's main success came as result of Kyle Shanahan's gameplanning giving him far too many opportunities to where it was impossible for him to fail. He has never been more than a game manager, failing to put up big numbers outside of one off games. Now that the team's success will be completely dependent on Jimmy's production, I do not see good things coming. The lack of consistent play from both the defense and quarterback does not seem like a recipe for success.

Under the Radar X-Factor: Aside from Derek Carr, the Raiders lost their most iconic player of the past decade when they shipped away their playmaking tight end Darren Waller. Replacing Waller is a big task but the team made replacing him a priority and invested high draft capital by drafting Notre Dame's Michael Mayer in the beginning of the second round. Mayer can do it all. He is a big enough body to be an asset in the run game but more importantly he has great athleticism for his size making him a great pass catcher. At a school that has featured numerous successful NFL tight ends, Mayer set records at the position making him the best tight end prospect the school has ever produced meaning he is a can't miss prospect. While it is undoubtedly true that Mayer will succeed in the league at some point, the main question is when? Most tight ends take around three years to get fully entrenched into an NFL offense but a player of Mayer's pedigree will be fast tracked. Given the other offensive weapons on this team, Mayer could find himself being covered by the defense's lesser defenders which could result in a very productive rookie year even as a tight end.

Verdict: The more games this team loses the better it is for them because they have a lot of talent but they are lacking at key positions like the quarterback so if this team can come away with the 1st overall pick and land Caleb Williams, this season will be a big success as they will be ready to compete next season. Under 5 Wins.