AFC North Preview

 AFC North Preview

As we get closer to the start of the season, we move to a division with even higher stakes. Every team in this division sees a reality where they can be a contender but unfortunately all of them cannot be. This division will get the best of both worlds as they play games against the tough NFC West but also the easy AFC South. This will definitely be a division that comes down to the wire as there is no true disaster team so whoever wins this division should not be viewed lightly.

Baltimore Ravens

Strengths: The Ravens 2022 season lead to a playoff appearance but the unpredictable nature of Lamar Jackson's health lead to the ship being left captainless heading into January leading to another early exit for the team. Lamar Jackson's availability has been an issue his entire career as he is yet to start every game in a season but when he is in, the Ravens are a contender. The potency of the Ravens roster can be seen by Jackson's record as a starter last year leading the team to 8 wins compared to only four losses and those four losses were to good teams in one possession games. This Ravens team can compete with just about anyone as long as they have Jackson taking snaps. Lucky enough for the Ravens the guys in charge of protecting Jackson and keeping him healthy are one of the best units in the league. Aside from the Eagles, the Ravens graded out as the top team being effective in both the passing and running game. The unit did lose one of their best plays, Ben Powers, but this is a disciplined group in all of the other four positions which can seen by their league low 24 penalties a year ago so they should be able to smoothly integrate Power's replacement even if it ends up being the late round rookie Aumavae-Laulu. The Ravens could tweak their offense a bit this coming season by passing more in order to limit the amount of hits Jackson takes to protect his health. An emphasis on the passing game should be a warranted adjustment too given the new pass catchers the team has. Of course the 2nd best tight end in the league Mark Andrews will always be Jackson's go to but the acquisitions of OBJ, Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman's return to full health will give this team a completely new look in the passing game leading to a new danger that this team was severely lacking a year ago. This Ravens team is not just an offensive juggernaut as they feature one of the best linebacking pairs in the league. The first half of the pair is the home grown Patrick Queen who is moving into his 4th year and looks primed to make the leap into the upper echelon of backers. The other side of the pair is Roquan Smith who is already in that upper echelon of backers who they acquired from the Bears a year ago for pennies on the dollar. This pair keeps this defense steady allowing them to limit even the toughest run games while keeping tight ends and running backs in check in the passing game. As Jackson goes, so do the Ravens, so as long as he has a healthy season, the Ravens should have an offense that can score with anyone while featuring a defensive core that can limit even the best offenses.

Weaknesses: The 2023 Ravens are a strong team without many glaring weaknesses. They have capable players in both the running and passing game. They have a hall of fame kicker. They have a solid front 7. And most importantly they have a franchise QB. But do not get too ahead of yourself Baltimore fans this is not a perfect nor an impeccable team. Their imperfection stems from their lack of depth in the secondary. Sure Kyle Hamilton looks to be the best Baltimore safety since Ed Reed and Marlon Humphrey does a decent job against their opponent's WR1.  The rest of the secondary does not seem to be enough to keep an opponents passing game in check. They did add Rock Ya Sin to help strengthen the unit but he seemed to have lost a step last year with the Raiders so he still has to prove he can handle this role. The team's biggest vulnerability is the health of this team as a whole. For the past couple of years, injuries have been an unfortunate occurrence for this team with their offense being the most affected. Just look at the team from a year ago, they did not have one of their top three RBs for the majority of the year. Their top WR barely played. And their QB missed games when it mattered most. While this undoubtedly is partially a result of bad luck, it is also just the nature of the team with a lot of their most important players being unfortunately injury prone. Let's hope that their luck turns around and the team can stay a healthy cohesive unit.

Under the Radar X-Factor: As outlined above, there was a changing of the guard at left guard. Malaesala Auvamae-Laulu was taken by the team in the sixth round mostly as a depth pick to back up newcomer John Simpson, but as training camp goes it looks like MAL is earning the job. The rookie guard was always seen as a competent fit in the running game as he is a big guy who can move basically any interior lineman. MAL fell to the sixth for a reason though as he struggles in space and the passing game with his size limiting his quickness. He will be between the studs Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum so they should be able to keep him safe in pass pro. If he can blend in nicely this will once again be a top offensive line.

Verdict: Even with the talents we will soon cover in Cincy, this Baltimore team is the most balanced and deep roster in the division giving them a good chance to take the division crown back. Whether they win the division or not this will be a playoff team. 9-12 Wins.

Cincinnati Bengals

Strengths: Anyone who knows anything about this Bengals team should already know what this team is about. Joe Burrow & Co are legit. Of course it starts and stops with Ja'Marr Chase as before he arrived this was a middling team but after his arrival this team became a contender. He can run through and past literally any corner in the league no matter the route leading to game changing play on the outside that uplifts every other player on the field. But it is not as if his teammates Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon need Chase to be good as they are both solid players in their own right since they both would start for most of the other teams in the league. It is not only the skill players that are great players with the team also acquiring an anchor to be their new left tackle. After guiding the Chiefs to another Super Bowl, Orlando Brown has seen what it takes to rise to the top of the football world. He will definitely bring over his consistent above average play but he may also bring over some of that knowledge and magic that makes KC great. The Bengals' offense is not the only place where stars reside, the team also features a rugged duo of edge rushers. Trey Hendrickson's ability to lockdown an edge is well known and respected given his 2 Pro Bowls, but it is the progression of his counterpart Sam Hubbard that has changed this defense. Hubbard has always been an above average pass rusher but he has come on as a solid run defender too given the Bengal defense to limit big plays by forcing ball carriers into the middle of the field. This team's offense is as good as it gets in the league as they are balanced enough to score no matter the scenario so expect this team to be competitive regardless of their opponent.

Weaknesses: If you thought the Baltimore secondary was an issue, then try not to look at what the Bengal secondary has to offer. After being bottom ten in the league in pass defense a year ago allowing 229 YPG, the team features mostly the same unit. Awuzie always seemed to be more of a CB2 than a CB1 routinely getting worked by opponents' WR1. Taylor-Britt and Dax Hill are young and still have the potential to grow into stout defenders but their youth and inexperience leads to many mismatches and open receivers. Nick Scott, who the team brought in to roam the back of the defense, was a part of the commonly overmatched Rams defense a year ago so I do not expect him to change this secondary in any positive manner. While the team has a competent enough offense to be able to keep up in the shootouts that will result from the shoddy secondary, the offense is not nearly perfect. The interior offensive line can be an issue as they have guys who can consistently produce in the run game but the pass protection may lead to some issues. Issues there could lead to big problems as an interior pass rush would be the easiest way to stall this offense since their dynamic receivers will not have the time to run their home run route taking away the explosive element from his offense. Even with these issues, both the offensive and defensive side of the ball has enough talent to compensate for their deficiencies. 

Under the Radar X-Factor: The departure of Samaje Perine is a bigger loss for this team than most would expect. He was a great chain mover on third down with some of the best pass catching abilities out of the backfield in the league. The team looks to have found a great replacement for him by selecting Chase Brown in the fifth round. Brown is a similar size to Perine but he has more burst while providing apt pass catching skills. Brown was much more than a mere past catcher in college, he had 1,883 total yards from scrimmage with 13 TDs in his final season. The kid is electric and will be able to capitalize if given even the slightest amount of space. I expect Brown to eclipse Perine's former role and cut into some of Mixon's usage as a change of pace back that can bring a new dimension to this offense. If Brown shows out this year it could become his backfield and Mixon could become a cap casualty next offseason when the team needs to shave funds to prepare for the inevitable Burrow and Chase extensions.

Verdict: While Burrow has not been healthy yet during camp, he should be ready to go come the regular season but will the lack of preseason reps for this core hurt them to start the season. This has been a successful team for the past couple of seasons so expect them to carry that over into another season and reach the playoffs. 9-11 Wins.

Cleveland Browns

Strengths: Will this finally be the long awaited season that Cleveland has been waiting for? That question all boils down to one man, Deshaun Watson. Watson has had a prolific career, he averaged 4,280 yards per season and 28 TDs in his three full seasons as the Texans starter. If he comes anywhere close to that kind of production again this is going to be a good team, while the team did not end up signing his former teammate DeAndre Hopkins the team still has some talent around him. Watson will be looking to Amari Cooper early and often as he has established himself as one of the premier receivers in the league averaging 1000+ yards a year and 7 TDs. Cooper is not the only talented pass catcher on the team with the hulking David Njoku operating out of the tight end and Elijah Moore who after falling out of favor with the Jets a year ago, joins the team looking to leap back up to the heights of his rookie year where he finished out his year with 77 yards per game over his final 6 games to go along with 5 TDs. It is looking like Moore is ready to reclaim that production too because in camp he is looking like a man on a mission playing out of almost every receiver position and looking good doing it. The team will need all these pass catchers to be up to the task in order to maximize the potential that Deshaun Watson brings to the table. But for how much potential this team has in the passing game, the Browns will always be a team that will force feed Nick Chubb. Although Chubb has put stats that can compare with any of the elite RBs in the league, 2023 is a new year and a new challenge for him. The 27 year old back has averaged over 1,200 yards and 10 TDs over his 5 year career but this will be the first year he has been fully featured as long teammate Kareem Hunt left this offseason and there does not seem to be anyone currently in the building who can fill that role, leaving Chubb to add pass catching to his already heavy repertoire. If he was already putting up monster numbers while sharing snaps with Hunt, get ready for the video game numbers he is about to put up this year. If Deshaun is the old Deshaun, this is going to be a fun and electric team to watch but even if he takes a step back from that prime, the monster that lines up behind him will keep this team's offense humming.

Weaknesses: Even with a team that carries potential to feature such a strong offense, this team definitely has some issues. The main issue has to be the run defense. The line does feature Myles Garrett, but he is more of an elite pass rusher than a great run defender. And it only goes downhill after Garrett, the team did acquire Za'Darius Smith but at this point in his career he is almost strictly a pass rusher. Their interior linemen they will be relying on are on the older side and lack the quickness and endurance to be able to consistently cog up the holes and keep the opposing back limited. While the defensive line has issues against the linebacking core is even worse. The team lacks a true playmaker at the position and most of the backers who will see game reps are undersized leading even the most average offensive line being able to move them at will. Even though the team features a solid pass defense, this hole will outweigh any positives this unit features and will not allow the team to pull away even when the offense is firing on all cylinders.

Under the Radar X-Factor: This Browns team largely returns the same roster from a year ago so do not expect a new face to come out of nowhere and seize a large role on this team but with that being said Donovan Peoples-Jones might be one of the few changes from last year's starting lineup. DPJ is a decent player who is good at taking the top off of a defense but he lacks a diverse skillset leading the team to draft Cedric Tillman out of Tennessee and while Jalin Hyatt was the big play maker for that team, Tillman was a consistent producer when healthy. Tillman is a big bodied receiver who should be able to handle even the most physical corner, but he does lack top end speed and agility so do not expect him to be routinely running free. Tillman's size and ability to make contested catches will translate well to the NFL but will he be able to take over DPJ's role? Only time will tell.

Verdict: This is an offense that can beat up on bad teams but a defense that will crumble against the good teams. 6-9 Wins.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Strengths: The Steelers finally decided it was time to end the Big Ben Era leading to a painful transitional season that saw the team finish a respectable 9-8 but barely miss the playoffs in a tough AFC North. The heart of this team was undoubtedly the defensive front that is great in both phases of the game. The top player in this organization is TJ Watt. The youngest Watt brother has proven he lives up to the Watt pedigree with 4 All-Pro seasons and a DPOY to boot. As long as he is healthy, this defensive front will be tough for opponents to handle. The other anchor of the D line is Cam Heyward who seems like he has been playing for the entirety of this century. With 4 All-Pro years of his own, Heyward has not lost a step clogging up the middle giving opponents no space to easily run the ball. The rest of the front 7 does not feature any names that come anywhere close to the hype these two bring but they know how to play as a cohesive unit thanks to great coaching leading this team to constantly make opposing offenses grind out every point they get. There is no other unit on this team that compares to the ability of the front 7 but their pass catchers have shown to be amongst the most promising in the league and this may be the season their youngsters grow into veterans and this group actualizes their potential. The veteran of the group, Diontae Johnson, has been a target machine and he has proven he is someone opposing defenses need to worry about. The youngsters George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth have had bouts of production but have failed to produce on a week to week basis at this point of their young careers. George Pickens looks to be the star of the group though, he is able to make just about every catch and while he is not the crispest of route runners his ability to make contested and circus catches will erase any of those issues. He has the potential to have the best ball skills in the league and this may be the year that he seizes that potential. On paper this team has what it takes to succeed in the NFL, a talented set of pass catchers and defense that can limit the run and big plays, so the rest of the team just needs to play competently for this to end up being a good team.

Weaknesses: As we have discussed, the front of this defense is tough so if you are planning on continually running on this defense it is going to be a long day. Lucky enough for the Steelers' opponents, the Steelers secondary is the opposite. The team still features Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety but the rest of the unit only warrants worry. The team brought in Patrick Peterson to pair with Levi Wallace while Paterson features good physicality and technique and Wallace has good speed neither are complete enough to be able to compete with the top receivers in this league. Their backend does not get much better either as the team will again have Damontae Kazee patrolling the defensive backfield, while he has been solid at points in his career, he is only getting older and he no longer has the amount of speed and physicality to be able to close out the back of the field. The team will get passed on a lot so the Steelers better be able to pass as well. While the talent in the receiving core is obvious, the capability of the man throwing them the ball still remains to be proven. In his rookie year, Kenny Pickett had flashes of a dynamic playmaker but at the end of the day that is all they were, flashes. The team did enjoy moderate success with Pickett at the helm going 7-5, but all of those wins were a result of the talent around Pickett instead of his play. Pickett failed to ever find a consistent rhythm as a passer averaging 184 yards per game and only passing for 7 TDs while throwing 9 picks. But it was Pickett's pocket presence that was the biggest issue with his sacks resulting in an average of a 6 yard loss. Pickett needs to know when to take care of the ball and learn when to get rid of it, tasks that most mediocre QBs struggle with and I just do not see year 2 Pickett making a big leap in these areas so do not expect too much out of Pickett since he still has a lot to learn.

Under the Radar X-Factor: Joey Porter is back! The Porter lineage has returned to Pittsburgh. Joey Porter Sr was one of the cornerstones of the early 2000s Steelers dynasty so many will look at this selection as more of a nostalgia pick but they would be wrong as the younger Porter can ball. While he got a lot of the physicality and strength from his dad, JPJ has speed that Sr could only ever dream of leading the younger Porter to be a corner. JPJ's size and physicality will translate well to the NFL as he should be able to match up against the biggest receivers. Porter may struggle to keep up with the fastest receivers in the NFL, but his ability to press receivers will limit even the best once he gets fully integrated into the defense and as outlined above, the Steelers need him.

Verdict: This team features plenty of talent but the lack of stellar QB play will keep this team mediocre at best. 6-9 Wins.