NFC South Preview

 NFC South Preview

Last week we touched on the AFC South and I talked about how it is a division that lacks top end talent and there are not very many tall expectations. Well this week might be even more bleak as we touch on the NFC South, the dumpster of the league. I cannot lie instead of a preview, this is going to seem more like a hate list but I am sorry there just are not a lot of positives to go around. Lucky enough for them they do not feature a tough schedule as the teams in this division face the mediocre NFC North and the lowly AFC South as well as playing the other three teams in the division twice so there should be cheap wins to go around limiting the possibility that there are any true dumpster fires in the division this year. 

Atlanta Falcons

Strengths: Atlanta should just be happy they have the Braves because it seems like every ounce of talent is within the confines of Truist Park. While the Falcons do not compare to their baseball counterparts, there are still some diamonds in the rough on this roster. One room you should always look to when looking for a little bit of hope on this team is the running backs. The team returns two backs with the ever dangerous Cordarrelle Patterson and the young bruiser Tyler Allgeier. The two made for a dangerous combo as they helped the team rush for 160 YPG, a figure good enough for third in the entire league. Even with that kind of success on the ground, the team was not satisfied, leading them to reach for the top back in this year's draft, taking him 8th overall. Three running backs is a lot of mouths to feed but Patterson and the rookie Bijan Robinson are very versatile players which will allow the team to run a lot of plays with two backs on the field allowing everyone to get their touches. The running game is not the only point of stability on this team as the special teams group is also one of the best in the league. It starts with a great kicker and a great personality in the electric Korean, Younghoe Koo. The kicker is as consistent as it gets, nailing 92.7% of all his kicks in his 4 years with the team and he can kick in bulk too as he has a scoring title under his belt. Even with a talent like Koo, it is the team's kick returners which may be the most talented as they feature two of the top return men. First there is the aforementioned Cordarrelle Patterson who may just be the best returner in football since Devin Hester but he is only a kickoff guy. The punts are handled by the equally capable Avery Williams. In just his second year in the league, Williams led the league with a monstrous 16.2 yard per return. This talented special teams core will help the team have a short field which can be perfectly paired with Koo leading to a high scoring percentage which is a good combo for a team that lacks depth and talent.

Weaknesses: Even with the team's juggernaut of a backfield, this team's offense is going to be a problem. I know Desmond Ridder is young but I just do not think he is the answer. Sure he was 2-2 last year but those two wins came on the back of the rushing attack and he just does not look confident in the pocket. He reminds me of a pre-Daboll Daniel Jones, someone who has the measurables in place but lacks the confidence and the proper scheme to enhance their play enough to be a successful player. But the offense will still be functional at the very least. But out of the three phases of the game we are yet to talk about one and that is for good reason. Beyond Grady Jarrett and AJ Terrell, the defense is a train wreck. The team was bottom top 10 in both rushing and passing defense a year ago. They added Bud Dupree and Calais Campbell to the line but both are on the wrong side of 30 so expecting them to be cornerstone pieces that can turn this unit around would be foolish. And to try to plug up their secondary they acquired Lion sendoffs Jeff Okudah and Mike Hughes but the Lions secondary was notoriously bad for a reason so I would not expect any kind of turnaround out of this group. The team is built to play a short game thanks to their heavy rushing attack which should at least limit the amount of damage the defense can give up.

Under the Radar X Factor: Mack Hollins had limited production over three seasons with the Dolphins and Eagles, but thanks to various injuries Hollins finally got his chance with the Raiders last year and made the most of it. Working as the number 3 target, Hollins totaled 690 years and consistently moved the chains 12.1 YPR. With Jakobi Meyers moving to the Raiders, Hollins was the odd man out leading to another change of scenery as he will now line up opposite Drake London. The Falcons and their opponents know what to expect from the running game, Drake London and Kyle Pitts but it is Hollins who will be the person who can slip the attention of the opposing defense coaches and become a reliable target who can help foster and maximize the growth of Desmond Ridder.

Verdict: 6-9 Wins, the Falcons will play in plenty of tight games but ultimately the lacks of consistent quarterback back play and a porous defense should lead to a losing record.

Carolina Panthers

Strengths: I am going to keep this nice and short. Brian Burns is good. Jaycee Horn is a stud. Beyond that I cannot say anything else positive about this squad. It is going to be a long year.

Weaknesses: First, let's start with their offseason acquisitions. The team dealt the young and dynamic DJ Moore and replaced him with the aged but distinguished Adam Thielen. This can only ever be viewed as a net negative. Thielen is 5 years removed from a thousand yard season, he has not only lost a step but a couple of them. But even with his diminished speed he was still a viable redzone target but that was thanks in large part due to the years of chemistry with Kirk Cousins something that you know will be severely lacking with first year signalcaller Bryce Young. Talking about Young, the team traded away 2 1st round picks 2 second round picks and DJ Moore to pick him. I am calling this now, this a move that may go down as one of the worst trades in the history of the league. Bryce Young just is not the guy to mortgage your future on. Sure he has had an illustrious college career but a year ago some cracks started to show. When Young no longer had the star studded supporting stars he had early in his career, a different player was seen. Rather than being a confident, dynamic playmaker when he did not have All American wideouts to rely on, he look like an anxious quarterback who was quick to tuck and run after making his first read but he still did enough to succeed. He has definitely done enough in his career to warrant a shot with an NFL team but the dichotomy between Heisman trophy winner who rode his superstar teammates all the way to the top versus the hit or miss quarterback who led Alabama to one of their worst seasons in recent memory makes me worried about whether he is the kind of can't miss prospect that you want to mortgage your future on. And the other part of this you have to consider is those players you gave up while every sees the DJ Moore a big overpay it is the 2024 1st round pick that would make me very worried if I was a Panther fan as I see this team being almost completely punchless this year and that pick looks to be a lock to be a top 10 pick and maybe the best odds in all the league to be the 1st overall pick which means they traded away the pick that will lock up a once in a generation type of talent in Caleb Williams. The Panthers will need Young to be above average right out of the gates if they want any chance at avoiding the utter disaster that almost seems unavoidable at this point.

Under the Radar X Factor: Raheem Blackshear might seem like an afterthought when you look at the roster. But Miles Sanders has a history of injuries and has had diminishing pass catching skills while Chuba Hubbard showed he is good between the tackles but lacks the athleticism to dominate the edge and catch passes out of the backfield leaving the passing catching back role all to Blackshear. Last year, Bryce Young relied heavily on Jahmyr Gibbs out of the backfield when he lacked talent on the outside. With the QB finding himself in a similar position expect him to develop an affinity for Blackshear. While Blackshear is not nearly the player Gibbs is, expect him to still consistently find space in the flat running past linebackers. 

Verdict: This team is maxing out at 5 Wins. I hate to say it but we might be seeing the slow destruction of a franchise right before our eyes.

New Orleans Saints

Strengths: Following the end of Sean Payton Era, the Saints were expected to take a step back but the complete loss of an offensive identity had to be shocking. Lucky for New Orleans an elite defense kept the team competitive and most of the unit is returning along with some great additions. The focal point of this team is the pass defense as Marshon Lattimore & Co formed the number 2 pass defense in the league but that would not have been possible without another strong season from Cam Jordan keeping quarterbacks uncomfortable but the one aspect of the Saints passing defense that everyone overlooks is DeMario Davis. Davis is a cheat card as he is one of the few linebackers in the league who has the ability to go stride for stride and smother any running back in the league taking away a quarterback's safety blankets leading to more force throws and incompletions. Even with the strength of the pass defense a year ago, the defense as a whole was not perfect. As the year went on the holes in the defensive front got bigger and bigger leading the Saints to have the 9th worst rush defense in the league giving up 131 YPG. This was an obvious priority for the Saints to address as their top two picks in the draft will plug two of those holes along with a couple of veterans giving the team plenty of options and depth at a previously thin and vulnerable position. The Saints will once again be a vaunted defensive unit that may even take a step forward from a year ago so any offensive improvement will lead to a more bountiful season.

Weaknesses: The complete loss of an offensive identity a year ago seemingly came of nowhere as the team returned mostly the same offense from the previous season while adding a dynamic playmaker in Chris Olave, but even with that continuity in a time of transition; it was one major change that lead to that collapse. It has been years since the importance of the Left Tackle position became a national story thanks to stories like The Blind Side but if you are a Saints fan you are very familiar with the importance of this position because the position was turned over to Trevor Penning. While the entire offensive collapse is not his burden to carry, he definitely was the first piece to fall. While it may have been a mistake to expect a rookie to step in and be an instant fix, Penning's failures were far more than the usual rookie growing pains. Penning was historically bad against the pass rush earning a 38.7 pass blocking grade from PFF and if you watched the Niners game a year ago he basically lost them that game single handedly as he was not more than a turnstile out there. While I am ready and hope to be proved wrong this season, if Panning is anything close to what he was last year, this offense will be limited no matter who the surrounding talent on the unit is.

Under the Radar X Factor: Derek Carr. I know, I know it may seem idiotic to call a 32 year old QB taking over a new team an under the radar X Factor; but he is not under the radar due to his lack of buzz and recognition, it is the lack of expectations people are putting on him. It seems like people just think he is going to be another Jameis Winston, but that is disrespectful. Carr has not been cursed by bad play but by bad management as there were only a couple of teams during his tenure with the Raiders that were built like proper winners but now that Carr has become part of a functional franchise with top end talent on both sides of the ball the sky is the limit for him. And Carr has played behind plenty of shaky Raiders lines so if Panning continues to be an issue, Carr has the ability to still be productive. One of the most underrated aspects of Carr's game is his ability to rise to big moments as even though he has a losing record as a starter he is still among the league leaders in 4th quarter comebacks with 28 in his 9 year career. Now that he is one a team that will not constantly be chasing points, Carr's comebacks numbers may not grow but his record as a starter should begin to even out.

Verdict: 8-11 Wins and this group has to be the division favorite as the Saints defense is the only unit, offensive or defensive, that is truly elite and will go a long way in supporting this new and improved offense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Strengths: When reviewing the Buccaneers offseason, it is impossible to overlook the loss of Tom Brady. The Brady Era is finally over and the next era for the Buccaneers looks familiar but dimmer. The familiar faces are important ones as the team once again features one of the best receiver duos in the league. It starts with Mike Evans. Evans has not spent 9 years in the NFL and all he has done is rack up 1000+ yards every single year to go along with 9 TDs per season. ELITE. With all that production coming all out of one player you would think it would be hard for another productive receiver to consistently put up elite numbers but then there is Chris Godwin who has put up an average of 944 yards per season showing why this duo and offense has continued to be one of the leading in the league. The passing attack is not limited to the outside either as their third round pick last year Richaad White has proven he may even have hands that can compete with Evans and Godwin. In a season where White only started half the year, the dynamic back caught 50 passes with an insane target success rate of 86% thanks to crisp route running and hands made from glue. This passing attack is the heart and soul of this team when given the opportunity, basically every skill player can win on the majority of their routes so what could go wrong?

Weaknesses: Enter the Receiver Reaper, Baker Mayfield. Of course another Tom Brady is not going to just walk through those doors again but look at those receivers, they have the ability to make most quarterbacks look like studs. But Baker Mayfield is not most quarterbacks. He is the literal worst choice for this team as he refuses to pass more than 10 yards down the field to outside receivers, a trend that will undoubtedly lead Evans and Godwin to beg Brady to come back one last time, at least until Baker is out of the building. While the team does feature other holes on the roster especially on the offensive line, none of them matter in the context of the damage Baker Mayfield does to this team. The Receiver Reaper already has Odell and DJ Moore on his list and Evans and Godwin will soon be added. But lucky for White, his use as a safety blanket will skyrocket with Baker at QB leading to a big statistical season but at the cost of the team's success.

Under the Radar X Factor: Yaya Diaby deserves this spot for his story alone as following his high school career he thought his life as a football player was over. After graduating high school the then lean, small framed, 200 pound Diaby was forced to give up on his dreams and work at a local airport but following a body transformation, Diaby decided to once again give football a shot. He played at his local JuCo where the now behemoth dominated earning a spot at Louisville where he only continued to improve resulting in the Bucs taking him with their third round pick. I love this landing spot for him because he has a lot of potential but he still needs to develop a bit so being able to play behind two established starters will keep the team's pass rush deep, balanced and relentless allowing Diaby to continue to develop at a comfortable rate until Shaq Barrett's contract runs out and Diaby is able to fully take over the role.

Verdict: I feel bad because overall this is a talented roster but they just went too cheap at the most important position leading them to be destined for a mediocre season. 6-8 Wins.