AFC South Preview

 AFC South Preview

7/18/23

In this first installment of division previews we dive into the shallow waters of AFC South. In a division that features the Colts, Jaguars, Texans, and Titans; there will not be many fans of these teams who think that this will finally be their year. This division does have a fairly easy schedule though playing each other twice along with the AFC North and the NFC South. These light matchups may lead to inflated win totals for some of these teams but when winter comes around do not expect a championship run from anyone you see here. Now that I have laid out the low stakes attached to these teams let's dive into each one.

Houston Texans

Strengths: If you are a Texans fan I am sorry. Aside from a brief couple of seasons of the Deshaun-Nuk connection, the Texans have been the one of the perpetual punching bags of the league. Well Houston, 2023 could be the turning of the tide. It is undeniable that out of all the AFC South teams the Texans have improved their roster the most this offseason, although this is not a hot take given how bad the roster was at the end of last season. First let's talk about Will Anderson. Anderson was in my opinion the best player in this year's draft so the Texans being able to grab him is a huge win. He will be a defensive cornerstone for the team for years to come as he has the perfect blend of power and speed to reliably stop the run while having all the tools to become one of the premier pass rushers in the league. But believe it or not Anderson was not even their top pick, CJ Stroud was taken second overall by the team. Although the former Buckeye surely benefited from the star studded list of pass catchers he had throughout his college career, Stroud has plenty of talent to survive on his own merits. Coming into the draft I saw Stroud as the most NFL ready QB available since nearly all his production came from in the pocket. He stands strong in the pocket and makes the proper reads but also features enough athleticism to be able to escape the pocket when things completely breakdown; these traits usually have the easiest transition from the college game to the pro game but I do think he has a lower ceiling than you would typically want in a second overall pick but that is a discussion for a later date. 

Weaknesses: Even though I have hyped up their two top draft picks as big difference makers for the squad, do not think this is me saying they will be a good team. The big issue preventing them from being anything close to a good team is their defense. At first you see their 11th ranked passing defense and you think it cannot be that bad but then you look at their rushing defense and it all makes sense. The Texans defense was absolutely atrocious last year thanks to their nonexistent run defense. While Will Anderson will help clog one of those holes, there will still be many other holes left wide open and I just do not think the additions of the aging veterans Sheldon Rankins, Denzel Perryman and Hassan Ridgeway will be enough to consistently fill the gaps and keep their opponent's running game limited. Do not get me wrong this is not me saying the Texans are completely doomed and you should not even bother watching them this year, no they have a much more competitive team but they just do no have a strong enough offense to reliably come out on top of the shootouts they will be getting in on a weekly basis but unheralded heroes could rise out of nowhere and help push their team over the top. 

Under the Radar X-Factor: One under the radar additions who could ascend into a prominent role is Tank Dell. Their third round pick from just down the road at Houston is small but explosive. His 5 8 185 pound frame means he may get dominated at the points of contact but he is a great route runner who creates separation with his speed. Operating out of the slot he could grow into CJ Stroud's safety blanket allowing each other a reliable way to grow into competent NFL players. While the Texans most likely will not be a playoff team this year, they are definitely moving in the right direction so there should be at least some excitement in Houston this year. 

Verdict: 5-8 Wins

Indianapolis Colts

Strengths: Following a 4-12-1 season the Colts only have up to go from there. That 4-12-1 record doesn't tell the whole story either as 6 of those losses came down to the wire and were decided by one score or less. This is a talented roster who fell victim to inconsistent quarterback play. That talent that this roster is built around is now a year older and ready to embrace and enter their prime. When looking at this roster it has to start with #28, Jonathan Taylor has already shown he can be the best RB in the league two seasons ago when he led the league in rushing yards and TDs with 1811 and 18. Last year was a step back for the talented back as he dealt with nagging injuries for the majority of the year, but coming into his fourth year Taylor is in the position of having to reaffirm himself as one of the top running backs as he looks for a major contract extension. With the team still dealing with a questionable QB situation Taylor will be leaned on early and often so all of Indianapolis will be hoping Taylor can recapture that elite form from a couple of years ago and carry that offense on his back. When Taylor's back needs a break the team needs to look no further than lead wideout Michael Pittman. Taken 7 picks before the aforementioned Taylor Pittman has been nearly as productive in his young career. After dealing with a calf injury his rookie year, the former USC standout exploded on the scene producing 2000 yards and 10 touchdowns over his last two seasons even with the shaky QB play that has plagued this team. Taylor and Pittman form a formidable ground and air attack that any team would be jealous of.

Weaknesses: Given how much hype I just showered upon this team's star offensive skill players you would expect this team to have a top offense this year but as I also highlighted above the QB situation is a mess. Although there are two new faces in that QB room, it is yet to be seen if they have a player who can play competent enough to allow all the talent around them to shine. First there is Gardner Minshew. Minshew has been a serviceable starter but still carries a losing 8-16 record as a starter including going 0-2 with the Eagles star studded roster a year ago. Compared to last years Matt Ryan/Sam Ehlinger experiment, Gardner is undoubtedly an upgrade with Pittman and the receiving corp likely getting a big bump in their stats; it is hard to imagine Gardner slotting into this offense and becoming a formidable force and author a winning season given his inability to close games with a win. But Minshew is not their only addition as with the fourth overall pick the team took QB Anthony Richardson. I love this pick and if you are a Colts fan you should be optimistic about your future as Richardson has a rare blend of elite arm talent and elite athleticism that could make him the face of the sport in a couple seasons, but he has one problem and that is experience. Over 3 seasons with Florida, Richardson only started 13 games and struggled with game management and reading defenses leading to a completion percentage of just 55% and 18 career turnovers. While I do think it is inevitable that Richardson will take over the QB position at some point late in the season, it is going to be a rough learning curve for the young signal caller that will lead to many audible groans emanating from across the city of Indianapolis on Sundays. 

Under the Radar X-Factor: For much of this decade the Colts featured one of the strongest offensive lines in the league. Anchored but the perennial All-Pro Quenton Nelson these guys were bullies but last year was a different story as there was a chink in the armor. The RG position was one of the team's worst. While they return a couple of the stopgaps who filled the position last year, there is also a new face that could be the solution the team is looking for. Undrafted rookie Emil Ekiyor was a cornerstone player for one of college football's best programs Alabama. I know many of you read undrafted rookie and thought that calling him a solution before training camp has even started may be a stretch, but do not worry it is not his play that lead him to be an undrafted rookie as when that draft process was just beginning the former Crimson Tide looked like a lock to be a day 2 draft pick. Unfortunately for the youngster the in depth medical evaluations done before the draft revealed structural issues in the big man's knee leading him to be removed from every team's big board. Lucky for him he was still given a shot and he has looked healthy in the little action he has gotten so far so I am hoping for both his sake and the Colts that those knee concerns were overblown and he can live up to his potential and bring the Colts line back to its peak.

Verdict: 3-10 Wins, I know this is a wild range but that is what happens when the QB situation is nothing more than a ? for this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Strengths: Following the circus that was the Urban Meyer Era, the 2022 Jaguars had no expectations so when the team ended up winning the division and upsetting the Chargers in the playoffs; Jacksonville could not have been happier. But now they have gotten a taste of how the other side lives. Will they be able to hold their cool when the team inevitably faces some adversity at some point this year? The answer to this question will solely fall on the shoulders of their golden boy Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence showed why he was taken first overall last year passing for 4113 yards and scoring a total of 30 times while limiting his turnovers and leading multiple 4th quarter comebacks. Goldilocks looks to have found the soup that is just right for him, with Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Travis Etienne being added to the offense and now in 2023 the team has added an even bigger name in Calvin Ridley. For a team that was already in the top half of the league for offense, the addition of an elite playmaker aiding in the development of 23 year old Lawrence is what this team needs to propel them into an offensive juggernaut that can put up enough points to be able to compete with the league's best.

Weaknesses: Unlike when I hyped up the previous two teams list, I will not immediately qualify those statements by saying that they are actually a bad team and do not expect too much out of them. Well it is a different story with the Jaguars they are a contender so when it comes to weaknesses there is nothing that is a complete deal breaker for the team, but one group that is still very green and will need to learn on the fly if the team wants to live up to their expectations is the offensive line. Aside from Brandon Scherff and Cam Robinson, the Jags other three starters do not have more than two years of experience. While the unit is mostly returning from last year and were good enough to hold long enough for Lawrence and Etienne to succeed, it would be foolish to expect their play to hold up to the same level. Another variable that could cause some trouble is the suspension of Cam Robinson as the 24 year old Walker Little will most likely slide into the starting lineup and he only has 6 career starts and will have his hands full trying to make sure the team does not skip a beat when he is in the lineup. Overall though this is a serviceable unit and should be able to do enough to allow the rest of the lineup carry the team to victory but they could also be the downfall of this team.

Under the Radar X-Factor: While the defense lacks top talent beyond edge rusher Josh Allen, they still feature a defense and secondary that can keep up with most teams. But one position that saw a lot of turbulence and turnover throughout the last year was the nickel corner. Towards the end of last year though, Tre Herndon stepped into the position and seems to have locked it up for good. The nickel is great at funneling play towards the middle of the field and is a menace in pursuit never giving up on a play and helping limit big plays. Herndon is the exact type of player that will make this Jaguars defense do enough to not lose games as they will carry a bend not break approach and use their offense to outlast teams and come away with a win.

Verdict: 10+ Wins and they have to win the division crown.

Tennessee Titans

Strengths: The Titans are the wild card of the division as on paper they are a good team with excellent coaching. Ryan Tannehill has shown he can do enough to lead this team to wins as he is 36-19 as the starter for the team. But it is not Tannehill who makes the team go, it is Derrick Henry and this Titans running game, as he has led the league in attempts and yards over the past 4 seasons. That top of the line running game only improved this offseason with the team making three major additions to the offensive line. They overhauled the left side of the line in free agency adding Andre Dillard and Daniel Brunskill both of whom graded as above average players at their position according to PFF. In the draft they got one of the best Day 1 values when the top rated tackle Peter Skoronski fell to them at 11. When watching this team expect to see the ball in Henry's hands and a constant basis with a couple of play action passes sprinkled in there. Not to rain on the parade but if I am being honest one has to question when will nature catch up with Derrick Henry as he has an inhuman usage rate and he will be turning 30 this season. It is true that no one compares to his build as he is basically just a boulder on wheels but everyone has their limits. It is this complete reliance on Derrick Henry that makes this team such a wild card because if Henry has the best year of his career they could ride him to the Super Bowl but if god forbid something happens to him the team could be in the running for Caleb Williams.

Weaknesses: For how good Derrick Henry is and what he does for this offense, his presence causes another issue for this team. The team struggles to sustain drives as their offense gets one dimensional. The one dimensional nature ends up with teams being able to hold the Titans to short drives when they do not score. A common thing you will see when watching Titans games is two short or negative running plays leading to a lot of third and long situations. This problem plagued the team on multiple occasions last year and is a big reason why the team was bottom 10 in third down conversions last year. The addition of Deandre Hopkins will help prevent opponents from stacking the box on early downs which should help the team get into more manageable third downs so they can hold the ball longer and work further down the field allowing them to score on more than just 33% of their possessions like they did last year. Even if this proves to be a problem, the consistent home run ability of Derrick Henry makes maintaining this one dimensionality worthwhile.

Under the Radar X-Factor: Chiga chiga choo choo all aboard the Chig train. Chig Okonkwo the second year tight end looks prime to make a jump into nationwide prominence. After not being heavily utilized to start the year, the Titans started to realize what they had in the former Maryland tight end and would draw up at least one big play a game for him down the stretch. Now that he is fully entrenched in the system and will have another full offseason under his belt expect the tight end to be a big part of the Titan passing attack even with the new addition of Deandre Hopkins. They line him up all over the field to create a matchup nightmare as he is big, athletic and a great route runner. And as a little bonus fantasy tip anyone needing a late round tight end Okonkwo is your guy.

Verdict: 7-11 Wins with a healthy Henry.