MLB Awards Long Shots 2023

 MLB Awards Long Shots 2023

By: Spent Brockman

If you are a betting man, you should disregard this list entirely. The names listed below will most likely not ascend to top the elite of the elite and win you bets in Vegas, well not yet at least, instead these are players that I see having great seasons and becoming widely known by the baseball community as whole. Of course if I wanted to make actual predictions this article would be filled with names like Ohtani, Scherzer, and Judge; but there are already thousands of articles heaping endless praise for these names. Do not get me wrong these long shots are not schlubs, they all have had moments of greatness but this will be the year they finally start to put it all together and move up in the baseball world so without any further disclaimers let's jump into the list.

AL MVP

Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox

Robert came over from Cuba as a heralded can't miss prospect with all the tools in the tool bag. While Robert has shown every single one of these tools at one point or another he has never put them all together for an extended period of time while remaining healthy. Since being called up in 2020 to be the Sox everyday center fielder, Robert has maxed out at 98 games but it is not due to being injury prone as the majority of the time he missed last year was a result of Covid and bouts of blurred vision, afflictions that he has fully recovered from. Even with limited playing time, Robert has been productive. Over 222 career games Robert has compiled a .289/36/130 slash line. In order to take the next step towards stardom Robert has two major steps to take. First he needs to be patient, Robert swings at too many bad strikes. Robert needs to work deeper into the count as he has shown the ability to make good contact as he only strikes out at around the league average rate of 20% so he should not be afraid to take a strike and wait for a ball to drive. Robert also needs to become more brazen on the base paths. The man has blazing speed as he has only been caught 6 times in 32 career attempts. He started last year on the right path compiling a quick 11 steals over the first couple months; but after spending time on the injured list last year, he was given the red light and did not successfully steal a bag for the rest of the year. All in all Robert has a real chance to be the MVP, he just needs to consistently be in the lineup and slightly alter his approach to the game.

Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles

The future is now for the Orioles. Rutschman is one of several young up and coming players who look like they will finally put an end to the years long rebuild that the Orioles fans have had to endure. The first overall pick of the 2019 draft, Adley has always shown the ability to rise to the top of whatever level of competition he was playing. The majors were no different, after debuting in May of 2022 he struggled a little hitting sub .200 over his first couple weeks as a major league baseball player. As he got used to life as a major league baseball player, he became the player he was always advertised to be. Rutschman was an extra base machine totaling 49 XBHs over just 398 at bats. After a few months as a major league player Rutschman was showing all of the traits of a seasoned pro. Whether it comes from years of catching or just innate ability, Adley's greatest tool is his command of the strike zone walking at 14% clip while limiting his strikeouts. 2022 was just the beginning for the Orioles and Rutschman showing that the sky is the limit for the young catcher and burgeoning organization.

NL MVP

Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves

At this point it may feel as if Albies is an aging veteran heading downhill as he enters his seventh season, but after debuting at the young age of 20 Albies is a mere 26 years old with the majority of his career ahead of him. Ozzie has had years where he hits for great power and years where he hits for great average but he has not had a year where he has been able to pair the two together, but 2023 may be the time. With the departure of Dansby Swanson this past offseason, Albies is being counted on more than ever. He expected to be moved up in the order to the cleanup spot. Hitting in the 4th spot in a lineup that sports talents like Acuña, Riley, and Olson, Albies has every opportunity to launch his career to new heights. If Albies can replicate the success he had at the plate during his career year in 2019 while following the table setters atop the Braves lineup, Albies will be walking away with some kind of hardware in 2023.

Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers may be on their last legs, now do not get me wrong they are some very strong legs. But with a team of aging veterans on ridiculous long term contracts the Dodgers competitive window may be closing. In order to maximize this window the Dodgers will need everything they can get from Smith. He is still on the right side of 30 on an affordable contract so he seems to be the Dodgers main solution for stabilizing the offense following the departures of Tre Turner, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger. The arrival of JD Martinez does seem to be a roadblock keeping Smith from fully ascending as he is a catcher so he will not be able able to play in the field on a daily basis and Martinez's presence clogging up the DH spot keeps Smith's bat out of the lineup on his days off from catching. If the Dodgers can find a way to keep Smith's bat in the lineup on a daily basis, he will feast, cleaning up for the on base machines ahead of him in the lineup. In the ideal situation this year, it would not be surprising to see Will Smith walk away with 30+ homers and 100+ RBIs, but the cards are in Dave Roberts hands.

AL Cy Young

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Skubal has always had the right stuff to succeed at a high level allowing him to quickly rise up through the Tigers farm system and debut for the Tigers at the young age of 23 after just two seasons in the minors. This promotion might has proven to be a bit premature though as in the pandemic shortened 2020 season, Skubal debuted with 5.63 ERA mostly due to his inability to keep the ball in the park as he gave up 2.5 HRs per 9 innings. 2021 was a better campaign for the youngster as he was able to cut down his ERA to 4.34 but he was still getting bit by the long ball with a HR9 still north of 2. 2022 was the year the Tigers were holding out for as the young flamethrower finally put it all together improving in every statistical category, but one improvement marked his rapid ascension with his HR9 dropping to a minuscule 0.7. The one part of Skubal's 2022 season that left something to be desired was his fitness as towards the end of the season attrition started to take over ending Skubal's season prematurely. Hopefully the Tigers put Skubal through the proper exercises this past offseason so he is ready for the long haul so he can finally cement his name among the league's elite.

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays did it again. The organization's uncanny tradition of being able to get the best possible outcome out of its pitchers continues with Rasmussen. Coming up through the Brewers farm system Rasmussen was a relative afterthought as a prospect but in 2020 Rasmussen was able to sneak his way onto the Brewers major league roster due to the Covid roster rules. Rasmussen's lack of experience and seasoning showed as he got knocked around to the tune of a 5.87 ERA working out of the bullpen. The start of 2021 was not much better either but then Rasmussen got his golden ticket in the form of midseason trade to the Rays. Ever since Rasmussen has been a new man compiling a 2.72 ERA over the following season and a half. While Rasmussen does not have crazy strikeout stuff, he excelled at keeping the ball on the ground while inducing soft contact limited any potential damage. If the Rays are able to continue to be able to squeeze the best baseball they can out of him both the Rays and Drew are set up for a very successful season.

NL Cy Young

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

With a fastball that can flirt with 105, Greene has all the intangibles to be a perennial ace so it was no wonder the Reds selected him with the 2nd overall pick in the 2017 draft. While Greene already has all the tools to be a top of the line pitcher, Greene needs to work on his approach to the game as he finds himself chasing strikeouts too often resulting in too many walks and a high pitch count. I am sure he has been reworking his approach all offseason so hopefully we see him work deeper into games this season because when he is on and in control he is unhittable. Greene displayed his talent more and more last year with him ending the season in great form highlighted by a September start against the formidable Cardinals lineup in which he pitched 6 scoreless innings while striking out 11. In another dark period for the Reds organization, Greene provides fans a glimpse of hope for what the future may hold.

Jordan Montgomery, St. Louis Cardinals

While the pitching staff is definitely not the strong point of the Cardinals organization, they did find themselves a relatively hidden gem in Montgomery after acquiring him from the Yankees midseason. Montgomery knows the right way to approach the game, while he does not have overwhelming stuff and raw talent; he knows how to use what he has. Like Rasmussen, Montgomery is apt at getting hitters to keep the ball on the ground and relies on his defense to get him through the game; lucky for him he has one of the best infields in baseball behind him making the Cardinals a dream scenario for the big lefty. Both Montgomery and the Cardinals have big ambitions for this coming season and will need to be reliant on one another if they want to capitalize on their stacked lineup and bring a championship back to St. Louis.

AL Rookie of the Year

Esteury Ruiz, Oakland Athletics

How fitting it is to Ruiz in the green and gold. While Ruiz is lacking a lot of tools he does have one tool in endless supply that longtime A's fans should be very familiar with, speed. Across 3 different leagues last year Ruiz had 86 steals, yes you read that right 86. So do the A's have a Rickey Henderson 2.0? Not necessarily as Ruiz lacks the ability to get on base that allowed Henderson to rack up steal after steal. Across a short 17 game major league stint last year, Ruiz hit an abysmal .171 leading some to doubt his ability to be a longtime starter at the highest level. As fate worked out he ended up with an A's organization this offseason who have no real expectations going into this season allowing them to put Ruiz in their lineup on a daily basis with the hopes he puts it all together and turns into an on base machine bringing back a side of baseball that has been far less common in recent years.

Will Brennan, Cleveland Guardians

For a team hoping to finally make a deep playoff push, an all around contributor like Brennan will go a long way. Brennan does not necessarily have any elite tools but he is good at everything. Most importantly, Brennan's strongest tool is his plate discipline allowing him to get on base at a high clip. Across 3 college seasons Brennan had an eye popping .424 OBP, and this success continued as he worked his way up through the Guardian farm system putting together a .367 OBP over the following 3 seasons. While Brennan does not have an immediate path to a daily spot in the lineup, Brennan brings much more to the table than Myles Straw so it is only a matter of time until Brennan usurps Straw and brings much needed depth to the Guardians lineup.

NL Rookie of the Year

Hayden Wesneski, Chicago Cubs

The Cubs may have the widest range of possible outcomes in the MLB, they could finish anywhere from first to fourth in their division. One of the big variables that is so hard to predict when evaluating this Cubs team is the rotation with each member having a big question mark next to their name. If the Cubs are going to achieve their best possible outcome it will be on the back of this man Hayden Wesneski. Acquired in exchange for Scott Effross at the deadline last year, it did not take long for Wesneski to force his way into the major league rotation as a little more than a month after acquiring him Wesneski debuted for the team and found immediate success. Across 6 games starting 4, Wesneski dominated with a 2.18 ERA .94 WHIP and 9 K9. So we should just lock him in as a first ballot Hall of Famer with those kinds of numbers right? Well not exactly, he never came close to these types of numbers in his minor league career. So was this just a result of a small sample size across a handful of starts or did the change of scenery lead to him to be able to fully unlock his potential? Only time will tell. 

James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers

This man hit two cycles in the same week. period. Nothing more needs to be said.

Okay I am just kidding, one word comes to mind when evaluating the potential of Outman's season, opportunity. In years past a player like Outman would struggle to crack the Dodger lineup on a consistent basis, but 2023 is different. With departures of multiple starters Outman will have more than enough opportunity. In a very limited stay, the young outfielder showed he is worthy of an extended opportunity as he was called up for a series at Coors where in 13 at bats he had 6 hits 3 of which being XBHs. If he continues to impress he could work his way up the batting order and follow names like Betts, Freeman, Smith and Martinez putting him in prime position for huge offensive numbers.